NFL Week 5

Buffalo (+3.5) at Cleveland (O/U 40.5)

Kansas City (-1) at Tennessee (38.5)

Baltimore (+2.5) at Miami (43.5)

Jacksonville (+11.5) at St. Louis (41.5)

New England (+1) at Cincinatti (45)

Seattle (-1) at Indianapolis (43.5)

Detroit (+7.5) at Green Bay (53.5)

New Orleans (pk) at Chicago (48.5)

Philadelphia (+1) at NY Giants (53)

Carolina (-1) at Arizona (41.5)

San Diego (-4) at Oakland (45)

Denver (-7.5) at Dallas (56)

Houston (+7) at San Francisco (41.5)

NY Jets (+10.5) at Atlanta (43)
Still accepting entrants for the sports betting contest…

The Giants are actually favored against Philadelphia (by about 1 right now, but it was as high as 3 in some places). I’m not sure they should be giving points to a Pop Warner squad at this point, but what do I know? Usually when a line seems that odd to me it’s a good sign I should bet the other way.

The lines are made by people betting, not how oddsmakers think will happen. The Eagles bandwagon has shifted the other way, and plenty of betting Giants fans will move the line by themselves.

The real bet for that game is the total turnovers +/- whddya think, 6.5?

PSA, the Chargers at Raiders game has been moved to 8:30pm (local time) because of some stupid baseball game the day before and they need the time to switchover at the stadium.

Yay 13+ hours of straight football!

That also means that the entire country is getting the Broncos-Cowboys game except for the poor bastards that live in Arizona.

I can assure you, they are probably relieved…Carson Palmer might NOT throw a pick six in this game, so hope springs eteernal…

I come to pimp the Thursday night game.

The NFL gives every franchise a primetime game, and so they kinda dump games like the Browns-Bills against the MLB playoffs on some random Thursday night as a throwaway game to get two of those primetime games out of the way. But it turned out to be interesting anyway.

The Bills are coming off an upset win against the rats. People thought the Browns were tanking the season after trading away Richardson 2 years ago and starting third string Hoyer, and since they’ve ripped off two wins. Both teams are 2-2 and trying to prove themselves by establishing a winning record.

The Browns defense has been a big surprise this year. First against the run, YPC allowed at 2.9. This includes holding Adrian Peterson to 3.5 YPC. First with longest rushing play allowed - 14 yards. They’ve been dominating against the rush.

Surprisingly, they’ve been very good against the pass too even with an obvious weakness in the secondary. Third in sacks with 14. 1st in Passing TDs allowed, 2. Longest pass given up 37 yards. 2nd in average yards per attempt - 5.9, and yards per reception, 9.8.

Which is pretty amazing for a totally new defense, with significant new players, a switch from 4-3 to 3-4, and a very different scheme. They hit the ground running and they’ll only get better. I thought Paul Kruger was overpaid, but he’s been an extremely well rounded player. Desmond Bryant is actually underpaid - he got very little attention on the free agent market this year but he’s been dominant. I was against the drafting of Mingo, but he’s flying around the field, making plays everywhere, his athleticism is fantastic.

The secondary is overachieving - Haden is amongst the top corners in the league, and deserves all pro status this year, but even the much less talented secondary around him are finding ways not to suck.

People were scoffing at me in the Trent Richardson thread when I suggested that the Browns defense would get them 5 or 6 wins at least, but there’s a good chance they’re going to have 3 wins in week 5.

Hoyer, I’m not sure yet. He’s very unlikely to be a franchise QB, but he could be a competent game manager. He gets the ball out much quicker than Weeden, which has made the O-line look a lot better. Getting Lavau back in place of Cousins (who is easily the worst lineman in the league, and I include backups in that, no idea how he has a job) will be huge. He throws balls to spots before the receiver makes his break - you know, what most QBs in the NFL that don’t start for the Cleveland Browns do. It’s refreshing to see decisive quarterbacking, even if it’s not especially talented.

The game is supposed to happen during a thunderstorm. The Browns and Bilsl have had some weird games over the years. My favorite football game ever was a bad weather game between the Browns and Bills (watch the kick around 1:50 - best kick I’ve ever seen).

I think the bad weather favors the Browns, because as awful as they are at running, they’re even better at stopping the run. 20-10 Browns.

I was going to say it was going to be a great week, since there was no way the Steelers could lose, but then they went and traded for Levi Brown, and… yea…

And Josh Freeman has been released by the Bucs.

I’m sure he’ll land somewhere and I’ll bet he’s very happy to be out of there. I heard rumors (on the Internet!) that Minnesota was looking at him but I don’t know if anything will come of that.

I think the Browns will win too but I did look at those stats that For You, garygnu and others linked to, tried to analyze their patterns for the last two weeks and from that it looks like this ‘should’ be a very close game. No matter what, Mayock is analyzing so all good there.

Seattle at Indy ought to be a battle too. Sure looking forward to that, N.O. and Chicago, Detroit & G.B., Texans at S.F., etc. Wonder which Baltimore will show up?

Bad weather games are the best, but “thunderstorm” might just mean hour-long delays for lightning.

Yeah, I know, I hate that shit so much.

Buffalo at Cleveland

Oh joy.

While it was absolutely terrible, I have fond memories of the Steelers 2007 Mud Bowl when the grounds crew put sod on top of the sod and the playing surface was absolutely terrible. Between the punt that just stuck into the ground and being this close to getting a 0-0 overtime, it almost made up for the hours of terrible football.

Hi. I’m in…Delaware.

Ominiscent, I was kicking around the idea that Chicago should try to grab Freeman as our backup. Gotta be better than McGown.

Is that a bad idea?

If the Browns are going to have a chance it better start raining… soon… hard.

Ugh. Weeden.

Hoyer needs to learn how to slide.