No, that’s not the proper data-based stance. From an old thread:
So you can look use the Alabama race as a reminder of the importance of national environment. In this case it cost the GOP 10 points. Ted Cruz is a potentially weak candidate (though not as bad as Moore), so you can refer to the middle category for an absolute worst case scenario. Ted Cruz won the 2012 race by 16 percentage points. So we’ll need 6 out of those middle 10 points if The Oily One is to be defeated, if the national climate remains where it was. A tall order, but not impossible.
The last category must indeed be set aside.