Canadian Rafael’s debate team history.
I guess Raf’s opponent didn’t know about Cruz Senior’s involvement in the Kennedy assassination, or he would have really had some humorous ammo.
I’m sticking with my take on the numbers from 4 1/2 months ago, that it is more likely than not going to be a Cruz win but likely a late night until it is called.
Summer polls may end up being off, one way or the other, but the fairly consistent directionality of their movement towards a closer race, from one in which at the start of June most of us agreed with Lance Turbo’s take to some degree at least that “hopes that this would be at least interesting are pretty much dashed” to today’s closer polling, is … interesting.
One item to highlight- the up and down for Cruz has pretty much tracked the up/down of Trump’s approval/disapproval and the national tracker, from a very good (for the GOP side) end of May to more recent numbers the other way. Trump went from less than 10 underwater end of May to now being underwater by over 14. The tracker moved from R -4.6 on May 21 to today’s 9.4. End of May was an exceptionally good few weeks for Trump and the GOP; this week not so much so. I am not so sure how much this race’s tightening reflects Beto winning people over so much as it reflects the rising tide and all boats. Will the national tide be in or out on election day?
Another thing is these are still RV polls. Who will be energized on election day in Texas? Will special election level energy levels prevail or will Hispanics in particular sit on their behinds there yet again?
People in Texas are on Twitter and follow big name athletes and celebrities there, and people in Texas watch Ellen. Some of those Texans are not informed about the race and might get interested in Beto after seeing him and hearing more about him. I don’t see how his profile being raised like that could hurt him; anyone who doesn’t like Ellen or big celebrities talking about him would have been unlikely to vote for him anyway. He very well might want to be president in the future, but at the moment he’s still very much running to be the senator for Texas.
I’ve heard similar stories about other suburbs and small towns. I know Cruz has voters, but they do seem to have a lot less enthusiasm.
This part is what I’m banking on:
Beto has some ground to gain in just getting people to know who he is, and as the election draws nearer it’s going to be in the news more and more, so more people will be hearing about him. I think going on Ellen will help, and hopefully he’ll get some other good talk show or other appearances. Jen Hatmaker, who hosts a fairly popular Christian podcast just invited him on her podcast, that could help among evangelical women. Beto visited all 254 counties of Texas, and has been to many of them multiple times now, he has more energy and organization than I can fathom, I’m sure he’ll try to fit in all the useful TV show and podcasts appearances in that he can.
The question is whether Beto can gain enough name recognition in the time left. It’s not guaranteed, but I’m hopeful.
I’ve been to three Beto events, and they are always very positive. There’s definitely some talk in the crowd about we don’t like Cruz, but more about how we like Beto, and when Beto talks he’s almost completely focused on the positive changes he wants to bring and what needs to be fixed. I remember that at the event I went to last week he mentioned Cruz just once and didn’t even mention his name. I don’t think he mentioned Trump at all, though he talked about some of his policies like immigrant family separation and how that needs to be fixed. It would be so easy for him to work the crowd by going on about how much Cruz and Trump suck, but he doesn’t do that.
Trump recently tweeted that he’s going to hold a rally for Cruz in the biggest stadium they can find in Texas. I’m hoping that happens, partly because Texas has some very big stadiums and I’m guessing it would not be a full crowd at wherever they end up. But also I’m hoping that maybe Obama or some other big name Democrat comes to do a rally for Beto. The differences between a Trump/Cruz rally and a Obama/O’Rourke rally would be huge.
I’m trying to not get my heart set on Beto winning so I’m not emotionally wrecked if he doesn’t win, but I think he has a good chance. But I’m also thinking that at worst case if he loses, hopefully a lot of the people going out to vote for him will vote some other Democrats into office, there are some House races that could be flipped and I’m sure there are some other local races that will definitely be helped by energized Beto voters. And hopefully some of those voters, including new voters, will stay engaged and vote in future elections, so the next Democrat running for a big race will have something to build off of. And of course more money is being spent by Republicans here than they thought they’d ever need to spend in Texas, and that’s money that they are not able to spend in other races.
https://twitter.com/annehelen/status/1035574281277661184?s=19
I… uh, I have so many questions…
- So we’re promoting smoking now?
- What exactly are those guns aiming at?
- That right bicep… who is that? WC Fields? And is that a cigar they’re chomping on?
- Did the Dallas Cowboys give them permission to use their logo?
- Why is the flag tat in color and the other ones not?
- Whatever the eagle has in its talons had three arrows in it. But what is “it”?
- Did I miscount or does the flag have 60 stars?
- If so, is TatTed from the future?
- And… most importantly… is that Ivanka tatted on his neck?
If that is Ted from the future, he’s spent some significant time in prison, so I’m good with that.
60 stars means Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, DC, Virgin Islands, PEI, Nova Scotia, Kamchatka, Baja California and Cuba have all joined the Union.
“Trump tweeted Friday that he will headline “a major rally” for Cruz in October and is “picking the biggest stadium in Texas we can find.” He added, “Ted has my complete and total Endorsement (sic),” …
The tweet of support was a long way from Trump’s previous assessment of Cruz’ record. He once declared the senator “has accomplished absolutely nothing” for Texans. Cruz has labeled Trump “a sniveling coward.” But the promise of presidential assistance suggested Cruz — and his party — are feeling the heat.”
And this story features a wonderful headline, indeed:
‘Sniveling coward’ Trump to campaign for ‘Lyin’ Ted’ Cruz in Texas
A bit of a breakdown here.
The “Straight Outta Congress” poster, to me, sends the message of “Let’s get Ted Cruz outta congress.”
I don’t see how tying himself to Trump will necessarily help him. According to 538, Trump’s approval has dropped 15 points from January 2017 to May 2018. And I can’t imagine it’s gotten much better in the past four months. Sure, having Trump campaign for him might fire up the real hardcore righties, but Trump isn’t exactly doing very well overall in Texas these days. In fact, Trump in the state may fire up the left even more, and I don’t see how it moves anyone off the fence for Ted, especially if Trump and Cruz’s history continues to be highlighted in news stories. Kinda makes Cruz look like Trump’s bitch.
We won’t be able to make any kind of assessment until we know how the Republicans plan to cheat. This bullshit about questioning the citizenship of Hispanic voters along the border is supposedly about passports and such, but it has some very consequential implications. At the very minimum, Texas Republicans will gin up some form of intimidation.
“Sure, you are welcome at the polls! Just, you know, be prepared to answer a few questions from your friendly neighborhood ICE representative. Bring the kids!”
Will it stop there? I doubt it, modest self-restraint is not a quality widely shared by Texans. Cornered feral animals even less so. Some folks suggest that Texas Republicans have no shame, but that is not so. Shame is when you lose.
You did miscount. It is 6 x 8, the old classic.
There’s always a question about how helpful Trump rallies are for candidates, because he has so much trouble staying on topic, and always wants to go off instead about the crooked media or locking Hillary up or free associates to whatever thing pops into his mind.
But at a rally for Cruz, you know it will be very hard for Trump to not throw some insults at Cruz in there. Something about how much Trump beat Cruz, or how Cruz used to insult Trump but how that stopped after Trump beat him. I could even imagine him saying something about how no one really likes Cruz but that Republicans have to vote for him anyway to not let the liberals win.
I can’t imagine that a Trump rally helps Cruz at all, and I can also imagine there’s a chance it could hurt him, and so of course I can’t wait for that rally to happen.
Does anyone know if there was coordination between the Cruz campaign and Trump before the rally was announced? Or did Trump just decide to do it and announce it before talking to them?
Trump’s popularity has dropped in Texas but it’s still positive. Looking at that link the drop is smaller in Texas than in a majority of other states. The median was a 17 point drop.
The left is probably as fired up as it is going to get. So long as Trump remains in positive territory, any firing up of usual GOP voters who are now only approving but not strongly approving of Trump or Cruz is a gain for Cruz.
I would love to see Trump at the Trump/Cruz get the crowd all riled up, and then when it was time to say something about Ted Cruz he instead says, “Vote your conscience.”
He said “decisively if not overwhelmingly”, meaning he needs a decisive or overwhelming win. That number you give is what I would consider a decisive win.
So you’re saying winning 52-48 would not be decisive? But 52.6 - 47.4 is?
No collusion!!
Does whining, begging and beseeching count?