New Reuters/Ipsos/UVA poll out this morning, and hold the phone: They have Beto up by 2 among likely voters (4-point MoE, so essentially even).
Only one poll, I know…
But interesting that two LV polls come up with such disparate numbers. It’s almost as if there are lots of ways to build a likely voter screen or model.
I think this could give Beto some hope if he’s following a similar game plan to Pressley. The Pressley campaign’s entire strategy revolved around turning out “unlikely” voters. They targeted what are traditionally considered “minority” news outlets and ran advertisements and had mailers in multiple languages. The results clearly show how effective that strategy was in terms of polling vs. actual votes.
That said, it’s much easier to do that on a district-wide scale in a primary than a state-wide scale in a general.
One other point of note, there hasn’t been a competitive Texas Senate race in a very long time. I went back and checked all the way back to the 1990s. So, it’s probably not surprising that pollsters might struggle with this race. In fact, there really hasn’t been a competitive statewide race for any Texas office since the state became so Republican in the early 1990s.
God, I miss Ann.
not to mention Molly
Sad day in [del]Mudville[/del][Texas](Republican Pete Flores upsets Democrat Pete Gallego in race for Uresti seat). 
While there are some special circumstances here that won’t be an issue in November (i.e. special election scheduled by the Republican Governor to guarantee low turnout, the previous Democratic incumbent had to resign after being convicted of 11 felonies), this really doesn’t help the perception that the Texas Democrats are a shambling husk of a political party. This is a district that the Democrat won by 20 points just two years ago. And the stakes were high – this cements Dan Patrick’s control over the Senate for the next session.
Yet Flores won by six points. All that stuff that a party is supposed to do (get out the vote, consolidate support for the nominee after the primary) didn’t happen. Texas Democrats once again are hapless. Sure Beto’s polling well, but that’s in spite of the party – every other Democratic statewide candidate is well behind his or her Republican opponent and is likely to suffer the same bloodbath that has been the norm since the mid-nineties.
Frankly, Texas deserves better and I really wish that the state party could get its act together so that Texas voters could have real choices up and down the ballot. But (Beto aside, MAYBE), I don’t see it happening this cycle.
The Cook Political Report is now rating Cruz-Beto as a tossup.
What did this poll show previously?
It’s not a poll; it’s a rating of a candidate’s chances.
Cook rated it “Likely Republican” until August 3, when they moved it to “Lean Republican,” and now this morning they’ve moved it to “Tossup.”
ETA: And tonight at 6pm Central time, Cruz and Beto have their first debate.
Shades of Kennedy versus Nixon, except without Nixon’s warm, human charm.
Debate live stream: Ted Cruz and Beto O’Rourke debate tonight at 6 p.m. Central. Watch here.
I don’t even watch senate debates in my own state, but I just might watch this one in Texas.
Cruz has been running attack ads against Beto using “He defends criminal illegal immigrants” as a scare tactic. I expect Cruz will lean heavily on that during the debate.
It will be interesting to see how they each handle questions about Trump. I think Beto usually tends to avoid direct references to Trump, instead speaking in broader terms about his own values and goals. And Cruz… well we all know how awkward the Cruz/Trump relationship is.
And I expect Beto to affirm his support for Texas BBQ.
Let’s make this the “live-streaming commentary” thread. These events are always much more rewarding with live Doper play-by-play commentary.
Convene at 6 PM CDT with beer and BBQ.
I suspect a drinking game will manifest pretty quickly. Beer or wine for most instances. But every time either debater speaks either the first or last name of the current president (or both names), a slug of whiskey-- or even brandy-- will be required.
They’re debating opposite Texas high school football Friday night?
From that link:
My bold. Hehe. I’ve contributed several times.
Yes, though here across the North Texas area we are having heavy thunderstorms right now. Some schools moved their games ahead to last night because of the forecasted storms, while some others that were scheduled for tonight are probably going to be postponed.