Does Beto O'Rourke have a chance to oust Ted Cruz?

[Shodan]

@ThelmaLou

I heard part of that on the radio. So… if someone is popular and inspires big, enthusiastic crowds to turn out… hmmm… who does that sound like?

It sure doesn’t sound like somebody who is down 4.5 points in the polls.

Regards,
Shodan

[dalej42]

@Lord_Feldon

The shitty economy in Ohio (there was basically no recovery between 2001 and 2007; thanks, steel tariffs!) also came somewhat close to dragging him down. He won the state by about 2%, but that was the first time in 40+ years that Ohio was less Republican than the country.

I lived in Ohio in 2004 and campaigned for Kerry. That same sex marriage ban really helped Bush in Ohio as people who weren’t thrilled about the economy or the lingering mess in Iraq still came out to vote against same sex marriage.

[TroutMan]

@Shodan

It sure doesn’t sound like somebody who is down 4.5 points in the polls.

True, it doesn’t sound like someone down in polls that are 2-4 weeks old. But it’s quite possible there have been events in between those old polls and last weekend that have energized voters. Anything come to mind?

[filmore]

@Shodan

It sure doesn’t sound like somebody who is down 4.5 points in the polls.

Beto’s rally was held in Austin, which is a consistent blue dot in a sea of red. And it was at the end of the “Texas Tribune Festival”, which was a multi-day political convention. There probably wasn’t a better time or place for him to hold this rally. It was an amazing turnout, but it likely does not accurately reflect the enthusiasm level of Texas overall.

[eschereal]

@dalej42

I lived in Ohio in 2004 and campaigned for Kerry. That same sex marriage ban really helped Bush in Ohio as people who weren’t thrilled about the economy or the lingering mess in Iraq still came out to vote against same sex marriage.

The thing that helped W. the most in Ohio was Diebold. I am not fully convinced that he would have won there without them.

[Ludovic]

If Diebold had helped to deliver Ohio’s electoral votes to Bush, surely there would be at least a little evidence of that. I’m not asking for a recording of them pledging to deliver them!

[nearwildheaven]

@Derleth

In my perfect world, a DUI would be an absolute disqualification to holding public office (and to driving, come to that) but given the world we live in, especially those of us who live in Texas, it isn’t and Beto remains the best choice.

I partially agree; a first offense should not ban someone from either for life, especially if there were no injuries or property damage. Maybe 5 years for public office?

I saw the debate between them on C-Span. Beto wiped up the floor with Rafael, that’s for sure.

[DSeid]

@Shodan

It sure doesn’t sound like somebody who is down 4.5 points in the polls. …

As the 538 adjusts about 3.8 to 3.3 if one factors in “fundamentals” … which is without question a close race.

But let’s be precise here - the significance of 50,000 at a rally is not that it is any sort of reflection of what your polling is running; it is possibly more of reflection of what the enthusiasm is among those who do say they prefer you. His supporters are apparently pumped.

It was said earlier in this thread that Beto can’t count on a big turnout but that he does need one if he is to have any chance of this even being a late night of counting. That sort of rally attendance gives reason to have hope that his voters will turnout. If Cruz’s do too then Beto still loses, but this s a change era.

[silenus]

If Texas as a whole votes for Ted Cruz…

,fuck 'em.

[ThelmaLou]

Save Us, Texas
Beto O’Rourke offers hope in dark times.

On Saturday night, at the end of a hideous week in American politics, there was an unfamiliar feeling in Austin, Tex.: hope. More than 50,000 people streamed into a city park to hear music legend Willie Nelson perform at a rally with Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic congressman from El Paso who is running a strikingly competitive race against oleaginous ghoul Ted Cruz. Many were young — Nelson’s set started after 10 p.m. — wearing Beto T-shirts and waving Beto flags. Nearby, a packed restaurant advertised “Beto beer.” In the air was that slightly delirious energy you feel when a political campaign becomes a movement.

Shortly before the rally, I watched Evan Smith, chief executive and co-founder of The Texas Tribune, interview O’Rourke onstage at a nearby auditorium. It was uncanny how much the candidate recalled Barack Obama circa 2008, and not just because of his gawky magnetism. Like Obama, O’Rourke is unapologetically progressive but offers a vision of post-partisan national unity. He treats his audience as too savvy for political clichés. When Smith asked him if he planned to go negative against Cruz, he mocked attack ads with distorted pictures and ominous music. “We’re sick of that stuff,” he said, except he used a saltier term than “stuff.”

Like Obama, O’Rourke is running on hope over fear; he exudes compassion and speaks about “power and joy.” Christine Allison, a Republican-turned-independent, is president of the company that publishes D Magazine, a city magazine for Dallas, and one of O’Rourke’s ardent supporters. “He listens,” she told me, saying that he has what Christians sometimes call a “servant-leader approach to politics.”
…

My favorite part is referring to Cruz as an oleaginous ghoul.

Hope… God, do we need hope.

…O’Rourke had been scheduled to debate Cruz on Sunday evening, but on Thursday Cruz asked for a postponement, thinking he needed to stay in Washington for the vote on Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination. When it became clear the vote wasn’t happening, Cruz offered to go forward with the matchup, but O’Rourke said it was too late. Instead, he went on Facebook Live — a medium he favors — to address supporters who had gathered for debate watch parties.

There, in real time, he recorded a campaign spot responding to Republican attack ads, doing four takes as viewers offered their instant feedback. “We can be defined by our fears, or we can be known by our ambitions,” he said, urging voters not to see one another as Democrats or Republicans, “but as Texans, Americans and human beings.” I’m not nearly as confident as O’Rourke that our partisan hatreds can be transcended. But it’s been a while since I’ve seen a campaign so optimistic and innovative that I’ve wanted to put my cynicism aside. In fact, it’s been exactly 10 years.

[nearwildheaven]

During the 2016 campaign, Cruz tried to kiss his 7-year-old daughter at a campaign appearance, and she pushed him away.

Ted Cruz kisses his daughter... it doesn't go well - BBC Newsnight

[Bijou_Drains]

[quote=“nearwildheaven, post:631, topic:807987”]

During the 2016 campaign, Cruz tried to kiss his 7-year-old daughter at a campaign appearance, and she pushed him away.

[/QUOTE]

During the 2016 campaign Trump tried to kiss his college age daughter Tiffany on the cheek and she pushed him away too.

[bump]

@filmore

Beto’s rally was held in Austin, which is a consistent blue dot in a sea of red. And it was at the end of the “Texas Tribune Festival”, which was a multi-day political convention. There probably wasn’t a better time or place for him to hold this rally. It was an amazing turnout, but it likely does not accurately reflect the enthusiasm level of Texas overall.

I think the biggest problem Beto faces is that there are a LOT of people who probably think Cruz is creepy, lizard-like, and awful, but will STILL vote for him because he’s got that (R) after his name.

[Elendil_s_Heir]

'Fraid so. This is Texas we’re talking about, after all.

[E-DUB]

Obama’s recent list of endorsements didn’t include O’Rourke. Probably because, with it being Texas and all, they figured it would do more harm than good. Maybe he should say something nice about Cruz.

[bump]

@E-DUB

Obama’s recent list of endorsements didn’t include O’Rourke. Probably because, with it being Texas and all, they figured it would do more harm than good. Maybe he should say something nice about Cruz.

That would be hysterical… something to the effect of saying that they didn’t always get along, but that Ted always did XYZ and Obama appreciated that, as it helped him with PDQ (some thing that makes the Tea Party froth at the mouth).

They’d assume it was BS, but it would sow that tiny doubt.

[Grrr]

@bump

That would be hysterical… something to the effect of saying that they didn’t always get along, but that Ted always did XYZ and Obama appreciated that, as it helped him with PDQ (some thing that makes the Tea Party froth at the mouth).

They’d assume it was BS, but it would sow that tiny doubt.

As a Texas Dem, I’m SO tempted t make a fake meme doing just that on my Facebook.
Ah, if only I had the skills.

[ThelmaLou]

I like this!

Beto O’Rourke leads Ted Cruz by three points in U.S. Senate race, new poll finds
O’Rourke has been closing the gap over the last several months, but this is the first poll that puts him ahead of Cruz.

AUSTIN, Texas (TRIBUNE) - U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, leads Republican incumbent Ted Cruz by 3 percentage points in the race for a U.S. Senate seat, according to a Ipsos online poll released Wednesday in conjunction with Reuters and the University of Virginia. O’Rourke has been closing the gap over the last several months, but this is the first poll that puts him ahead of Cruz.
…

[elucidator]

Pretty soon now, we should find out what the Texas Republicans have to hand for an emergency ratfuck. My money is still on a voter suppression scam, aimed at intimidating Hispanic voters.

Pretty soon now, we will know. Its like a big wrapped Christmas present from the Grinch, sitting under the tree, and tomorrow, maybe, we get to see!

[Happy_Lendervedder]

I’m sorta kinda hoping he loses in a squeaky-close recount situation. There’s a part of me that’d like to see him on the presidential debate stage. I understand that might not be the most popular opinion in this thread, but there. I’ve said it. I want the Congressman from El Paso to run for president in 2020.

(And I know it’s a trivial thing, and maybe it’s just me, but I’ve wanted to get this off my chest for a while: While I do want to see him run for higher office, I hate his name. It is just clunky and hard-to-say. “O’Rourke” is hard enough, but then you put the “o” sound at the end of his first name up against the “o” sound at the front of his last name, and I can’t say it out loud without sounding like I’m three sheets to the wind.)