That isn’t how statistics works, though. Math is what it is. Holding off longer would have been pointless and kind of dishonest.
Three percent is close in the sense of “wow, the Democrat did better than they usually do” but in terms of projecting the results, it’s a clear margin. If your sample if an accurate cross section, 51-48 over the course of 2.5 million votes is not going to change over the course of the next 5.5 million. The likelihood of that happening by random chance is just ludicrously remote.
Something as insanely close as the Florida senate election would merit caution. Texas did not; O’Rourke was clearly going to lose. It’s too bad, but it is what it is.
Yeah… that probably shouldn’t happen. But I could see a Clinton/Gore type ticket with Beto at the bottom if the Dems can get a young, well qualified nominee and just put them on a bus together. Cory Booker has the resume and he and Beto would be pretty exciting together on the campaign trail. Otherwise I just don’t see it though. An old Democrat will need someone ready to be President to assuage fears of age, and a young, inexperienced Democrat can’t choose Beto either.
2.5 million votes is enough to call it if those 2.5 million votes are known to be representative of the total population. In practice, in an election, the first votes counted usually aren’t. For instance, the counting usually finishes first in small precincts, and small precincts tend to be rural.
Why? What’s the point? I mean, the worst thing that happens is that a news service makes the call for the wrong person, in which case, they get egg on their face. It’s happened before, so they are usually pretty cautious about making sure they don’t do it. But it’s not like it affects anything to “call” a race for one side or the other. It’s just a way of saying, “we predict the outcome after everything is counted will be …” :dubious:
I am - 1980 was the last big time it happened, wasn’t it? The networks said Reagan had won before the polls had actually closed in California, and there were widespread reports of voters, having heard that, giving up and walking away from lines at polling places. Might’ve affected some close races.
No, admittedly it’s based on standard political strategy, but Democrats like to be conventional about such things. When have they ever broken the mold, except for Clinton/Gore, and that was going to work simply because they were both young and also very well qualified.
Since Democrats tend to be risk averse, I can’t see a Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden picking a Beto because then it becomes all about what happens if they die and Beto starts getting quizzed like Sarah Palin did and it can get ugly fast if he’s likeable and handsome but not as bright as we thought.
Beto got with in striking distance in a deeply red state. If played on a national level, Beto would wipe the floor with them.
Beto has also proven to be one of the few Dems out there that can handle Trump like rhetoric. Also, all the “dirt” Repubs have tried to throw on Beto has NOT worked. In fact, it backfired in some cases.
Absolutely. Sanders has a dedicated fan base and will raise a shitload of money. Biden will have the loyal support of African-American voters and working class whites unless another candidate takes one or both of those away from him.
The other candidates are young and unproven for the most part. If one of them emerges as a viable candidate, then sure, the old white dudes probably lose their base. But if there’s no progressive hero to turn Sanders’ fans heads, or no black or working class candidate to break Biden’s coalition, then it will be one of those two in all likelihood.
Think of Biden as Mitt Romney in 2012. Democrats want someone else and they will audition several candidates to avoid having to nominate Biden. If one of them proves to be ready, then Biden will lose. If they end up looking like Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Michelle Bachmann, and Rick Santorum for the left, then the party voters will sigh and elect Biden. And BIden has something Romney didn’t: support from key Democratic constituencies like African-Americans.
Not so sure about Sanders fan base. His shine has faded. Last cycle he was the “different”, the change, the shake things up vote … now he’s so 2016.
Biden? Yes he has the loyal support of certain groups unless someone else gets it … IOW the support is not so loyal. It is tentative, sharing a drink with him hoping for someone more attractive to come along before the night is up.
But this the Beto thread!
Beto ended up somewhat close with Cruz. Y’all are making too much of that. I refer you to a post made back in April. Given the lean of the special elections, the damaged goods nature of Cruz and his baseline unlikeablity even before getting dinged up, any reasonably strong candidate should have been able to make it close. Calling that was not impressive on my part; it was common sense. Honestly even then I had thought it would be closer than the 2.6 it ended up. I thought this would be one of those 1 point don’t know until the provisionals are counted but other side wins elections.
This national shift environment, this R candidate, well funded and lots of free media attention? … a loss by more than 2 is not all that to crow about.
Maybe he will make a run of it. But I don’t see him making it to Super Tuesday. More a VP choice with a run of his own in eight years.
Joe Biden is 14 months younger than Bernie Sanders. It does not seem likely that the US would be electing someone to the presidency who turns 78 a few weeks after the election.