You definitely Johnny Aced that moderator instruction. Johnny Aced it like crazy.
All right, that was damned funny.
Da Fuk? Who told you it is my job to provide evidence when you make an assertion?
If you want to engage in insults, I’ll happily do that in the pit.
I mentioned how Hillary got 600,000 more votes than Obama did in 2012. You said.
I responded by pointing out that according to national exit polls. Hillary did worse among Latinos than Obama did. Your assumption that Trump energized the latino community against him is false. So no, latinos jumping on the Hillary bandwagon wasn’t why she gained 600,000 votes in Texas, assuming Texas followed national trends.
I don’t know where the 600,000 extra votes in Texas came from. I know democrats have been trying to register voters there, that is probably part of it combined with growth in interstate immigrants and millennial voters.
Here is my exact quote, and my ONLY quote in response to you until you decided you needed to attack:
That’s it. Then you asked me to find out how many states there were with vote shifts that have large latino populations. To quote you, Da Fuk? Not my yob, senor. You want evidence to support your own point, find it yourself. I’m not your servant, whatever you appear to think.
Ok, then let me be clear. If you want to make a point, then make it. Do not do this or any variant of this name substitution again.
[/moderating]
In a somewhat surprising move, the major Dallas newspaper endorsed one of Cruz’s opponents in the Republican primary. (This paper is far from a liberal bastion - but they’re more Country Club Republican than Tea Party Republican.)
This will do zilch to keep Cruz from winning the nomination, but it does illustrate that there are a lot of Cruz voters who aren’t Cruz supporters exactly. If enough of them stay home, anything could happen. Probably won’t, but it never hurts to try.
Yeah, he’s the guy I mentioned last page. He looks like the only reasonable alternative on the GOP side. As I also mentioned he’s got an albatross around his neck as far as the GOP race, he was a registered Dem when he lived in New York. I guess that’s two albatrosses.
Seems to be a regularity in the Republican party lately. They don’t have to like him, he just has to not have a (D) after his name.
Insightful as always. :rolleyes:
Enlightening as usual. :rolleyes:
University of Texas / Texas Tribune Poll
Not a head to head poll, but primary voting and some other questions put to Texas voters that may be of interest. I’ll summarize my thoughts here but complete data can found in the link.
(Q19, Q20) Both O’Rourke (73%) and Cruz (91%!) are crushing it in the primary and both look to be avoiding a run-off with ease. Some races for other offices might be headed to run-off (i.e. D-governor), but the senate race seems to be playing out without any additional drama.
(Q9a, Q9b) Ted Cruz is -1 in job approval, but he’s killing it compared to John Cornyn who is -9.
(Q28, Q29) Ted Cruz is -1 in favorable rating compared to Beto O’Rourke checking in at +15. However, Ted Cruz is much more widely known and it is pretty likely that the people who know who Beto is have a pro-Beto bias. Thus, while this is promising, it’s probably not an apples to apples comparison at this point.
(Q26a, Q26b) Generic house ballot and generic state legislature ballot are both R+3 which is closer than I would have guessed. Lots of no opinion in both.
(Q30, Q31) The Republican Party has a net favorability of -2 in Texas while the Democratic Party is doing slightly better at -1. Surprising?
Until a D wins a state wide race, blue Texas can’t be anything other than a stretch goal, but those last two questions make me think that it’s not impossible.
CarnalK, has anyone asked you to hold your breath recently?
The Lone Star Long Shot Who Wants to Topple Ted Cruz
Beto O’Rourke in the New York Times- good article
I think the Times is right, it’s still too soon for a Dem to win a Senate seat in Texas, though far from too soon for Texas Republicans to start worrying about the increasing urbanity of the state’s electorate. Donald Trump is unquestionably toxic for Republicans but I don’t know if even he is toxic enough for a Beto win. Still, it’s a start and it would be nice to see campaign money start to flow into the state and see if the GOP’s biggest cornerstone can at least be turned purple in decades to come.
I just realized that I don’t know if “urbanity” is really a word.
Google submits:
It’s probably too early to succeed, but it’s certainly not too early to try earnestly.
The Dallas Morning News: Fueled by a Democratic surge, Texans turn out in force on first day of early voting
I gave Beto a 5% chance earlier in this thread. Now I’d say more like 15-20%.
I was under the impression that primary turnout isn’t a useful predictor for the main election.
What does it fail to predict?
About ~5 million people will vote for senate in Texas in 2018, so saying ‘democrats are doing well among the first 50,000 votes’ is premature.
The results of the election.
Eta: am I missing something? This is early voting for the primaries, right?