So another 7 countries are set to join NATO on Thursday. They are: Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Slovenia, Rumania, Bulgaria, and Slovakia.
Other than providing basing and some supply and logistics support I can see little reason militarily for bringing these countries into the alliance. They will provide little in the way of force projection or influence around the world.
(As an aside, I have doubts about the purpose of the NATO alliance post-cold war in any event.)
What I do see here through the expansion of the NATO alliance is a potential expansion of ‘legitimate’ American military power in the world. There will now be 7 more countries who will be able to call on the United States for assistance if threatened.
Admittedly, if I were these countries I’d be all about signing up. Imagine you’re the leader of one of the baltic nations. To the west you’ve got Poland. A little farther west you’ve got Germany. To the east (God help you) you’ve got Russia. Having a big brother around would start to look pretty good pretty fast.
So the only real, fundamental change in status I see with the expansion of NATO into these countries is the fact that it suddenly becomes more dangerous for anyone to attack them. And since that’s backed up by US military might I’d say that there’s a decent chance the underlying thought process is a Pax Americana.
I realize that there are other members of the alliance and all are committed to the protection of all. But let’s face it. If you’re the leader of Slovenia and say, Croatia threw a punch at you (or Libya, across the Med) to whom would you cry for help?
In any event, this occured to me this morning while listening to a discussion of the expansion on NPR and the Pax Americana line of reasoning struck me.
Well, you can certainly make a case for it. On a more practical level, it also means that these countries will be unlikely to attack anybody as well. Given the potential for vast discord a militaristic government could sow in such a weak region, its probably for the best.
Governments like stability. instability is very hard on the economy and diplomatic corps. The US is no different.
Nah, it looks more like a Pax Europeana in this context. My guess is that the countries you mentioned are more interested in being accepted as full members of Europe, with all the rights appertaining thereto, stabilizing their democracies and growing their economies. Joining NATO is just a step in joining the club.
Yes, they can call on the US for help if they’re threatened. But who’s going to threaten them, from outside anyway? Each other?
I think the EU is growing (or is already) vastly more relevant than NATO. Especially when Europe and the US seem to be split over a good many things. Pax Europeana I say.
I think that it is only a matter of time before the United States leaves NATO. An alliance without an opponent is meaningless and that is what NATO has become. Time to dissolve it. Sure, it feels good to have it around and to bring former opponents into it but what is it that NATO really does?
NATO is essentially now a ‘European Unification’ movement. About damn time the Europeans started getting together but I think they will, eventually. As they do, they will have renewed power in the world equivalent to the United States and also will start to have conflicts of interest with the United States. Not war or anything but the relationship will remain friendly but not ‘alliance’ level.
NATO’s original purpose, defending Western Europe from Soviet invasion, may be gone, but large organizations have a way of evolving their missions, intended or not. At the very least, it’s a convenient command structure for coordinating military efforts by the countries able to participate in them, and there’s certainly no harm in leaving it in place for that purpose. The Bosnia and Kosovo operations were run by NATO, for instance, mostly for convenience.
A wish for US withdrawal may be part of neoisolationist or neoimperialist thought now, but there’s no reason to expect it.
NATO might be a factor in holding the US and the EU together.
Without us being allies it might be easier, in future, for conflicts of interest to grow into something nastier. Now this is nearly impossible as all our armies are cooperating.
Without this NATO glue the EU might become less willing to cave in to every American economic or geopolitical demand.
Would you really want a European Union that is militarily as powerfull as the US? It isn’t now but that would surely be the direction of devellopment if NATO were to be dissolved.
I think your guess is wrong. Membership in NATO in each of these countries is considerably more popular than potential membership in the EU. While it is still unlikely, there is a very real chance that membership in the EU will be rejected by the voters of at least some of those countries, particularly Poland.
Well, that is part of it. Probably the only thing that prevented Greece and Turkey from engaging in an all-out war (or a dozen) over the past 50 years was their joint membership in NATO - and even then war was just barely avoided on numerous occasions. Many of the countries of central and eastern Europe have longstanding grudges, issues with ethnic compatriots under the rule of another country, etc., that were repressed under communism, but not eliminated. Having Hungary and Rumania within NATO, for example, means it is less likely those two countries will go to war over Transylvania.
Jonathan, there are two points for you to ponder. First, the fact that people are less likely to attack these countries benefits the U.S. We’ve seen that wars rarely remain contained; Poland may not be vital to the U.S., but Germany is, and a war in Poland would very likely draw in Germany.
Second, the opposite is also true; countries in NATO are much less likely to attack another country.
Yes. Please. I’d prefer that the EU became as militarily powerful as the U.S. while remaining within NATO, but either way a militarily powerful EU would be a good thing.
Democracies share the same core values, and another group of democracies with military power to protect those core values is an excellent idea.