The jobs done by 98% of all people were eliminated by machines, and that’s a drop in the bucket?
What you’re describing - impoverished consumers with no producers - isn’t logically possible. It isn’t going to happen, just as the elimination of almost all agricultural jobs didn’t impverish everyone (though people said they would) and computers didn’t put everyone in clerical jobs out of work. I am amazed people will still say these things when, time after time, the exact same prediction has turned out to be hopelessly wrong.
While agricultural workerws as a percentage of the population varies, it would indeed be above 90% (usually above 95%) of all people for pre-industrial societies, There are some arguments over the exact numbers - I’ve seen estimates as low as 75%.
Oh, well, since the industrial revolution. I hardly see that as being relevant to the claim that automation is going to eliminate most jobs, in particular industrial jobs, but also service jobs. And I don’t see some other class of jobs opening up for the numbers of people who are going to be displaced.
One other point Rickjay made – that what I’m suggesting is impossible in economic terms. He’s right, except in two cases. One is a major economic meltdown. The other is some form of massive government intervention – either to prevent some kinds of automation, or to create some kind of massive welfare state.
Think Mitt Romney. A highly educated and sucessful businessman to be sure. Be he seems to have this disconnect, even disdain for anyone who isn’t a millionare banker type.
Educate me, Rick. Why is it logically possible? Why will it not happen?
Yes, computers haven’t put people in clerical jobs out of work wholesale just yet, but it has increased productivity so much that wages have been stagnant for years because businesses have not been hiring. When programmers and hardware designers solve the eye-hand problem, all physical labor, even stuff like being a sales clerk, will be dispensable. The workers in the Industrial Revolution never faced anything like that.
Well think about how labor has progressed over the centuries. Pre-industrial revolution, we needed lots of strong laborers to work in the fields and build things with their hands. During the industrial revolution, we needed labor to either perform repetitive tasks using machines or to use their minds to invent new machines. Come the computer age, most labor is automated. Now we need people to either tell computers what to do or be told by computers what to do. Also doing things that computers can’t do - art, creative writing, music, etc.
When and if we get to a point where we don’t need any labor anymore, we would have likely reached the technological “singularity”. Which is to say we can’t extrapolate what such a world will look like from our current knowledge.
But wages have stagnated for years, not because of any technological breakthroughs. It’s because the economy is recovering from being broken.
So we can all continue to make a good living by selling our art to one another?
This is what I’m predicting:
We won’t get there 100%, because there’ll still be some jobs (scientific and medical researchers, designers, and a few other very creative jobs), but we’ll approach it. And barring some kind of massive government intervention, we will have a depression to beat all depressions before we get there.