It looks like New York will be the first state to approach a saturation point. Will the final Death Per Million figures from New York be our best barometer of infection rates in other states or regions? Hopefully New York will be an outlier for some reason as the rates are not looking good at all.
The population size and density, and time spent without social distancing, among other factors, are not likely to repeat elsewhere.
Only when it is combined with infection rates, and the issue is getting accurate figures, only then will realistic mortality rates be established - but this will be tempered by the profile of the population - age range, health conditions, living conditions such as overcrowding.
That means the figure will be only a guideline since other areas will have different population profiles, social conditions and access to medical facilities.
Since all the stiffs don’t get tested we don’t really know which deaths are directly attributable to COVID and which are collateral damage. EXCESS deaths per million will indicate the impact.