Re: Grover Cleveland (from The US Electoral College Webzine)
1888: Cleveland Blunders His Way Out of a Job
The election of 1888 plays a starring role in any discussion of the Electoral College. In that election, so the story goes, Democrat Grover Cleveland won the popular vote, but Benajmin Harrision stole the election in the the Electoral College. Is the story accurate?
The real reason was Cleveland’s lopsided vote tallies in the South. The 1888 vote in six southern states went to Cleveland with margins of 2/3 or more. So in 1888, the Electoral College did what it was designed to do. It prevented a candidate from winning the White House on the basis on one region’s support, somewhat suspect support, at that.
(For a table that shows Cleveland’s margins in the South, click here The table should open in a new window.)
Cleveland won the popular vote by a mere 90,596 out of a national total of 11,383,320 votes cast. His 425,000 vote margin in six Southern states was the reason Cleveland won the popular vote. In the other 32 states taken together, Cleveland lost by over 300,000 votes.
(Harrison had a lopsided margin in just one small state, Vermont, with 71% of the vote and a margin of 28,000 votes. No other states had margins above 60%.)
What had happened to cause the lopsided totals in the South? Cleveland made tariffs an issue in 1888. Lowering the tariff was an issue that the South favored, while high tariffs were a basic Republican tenet. Tariff reform boosted Cleveland support in the south, while it drove away reform-minded Republicans in the North who had supported him in 1884. Since he could not win with Southern support alone, Cleveland’s decision to push the tariff issue was a major political blunder, like running the football toward your own goal posts.
Cleveland’s debacle in 1888 demonstrates how the Electoral College system forces candidates to make their appeals as broad as possible. Whipping up intense support in one region will not win the White House. It also shows the potential danger in any direct election system, for it shows how easy it is to achieve really huge vote margins with appeals directed at specific regions, ignoring the rest of the country.
The anti-Electoral College forces imply that the EC could produce results contrary to the popular vote just by accident. The 1888 election suggests just the opposite. It took huge landslides in one region to produce a narrow popular vote victory. Whatever the cause, the 1888 results were no accident.
In 10 close elections since 1888, small shifts in the popular vote could have given the U.S. a runner-up President. Yet there has not been another case where the popular loser was the Electoral College winner. The “accidental” president remains a myth. It takes real effort to lose the way Cleveland did.
Wrong thinking is punished, right thinking is just as swiftly rewarded. You’ll find it an effective combination.