Dopers Predict the 88th Academy Awards Winners: Best Picture

Let’s see how well we can, as a group, predict the major Oscar winners.

It is not necessary to have seen all the nominated films to vote, simply predict who or what you think will win.

First up: Best Picture

The Revenant has the most nominations across the board and so is the favourite, though not prohibitively so.

It’d be delightful if Mad Max wins but it won’t.

Should: Mad Max 4

Will: Revenant or Spotlight

I’ve only seen two of them, though I want to watch Bridge of Spies.

I think Creed will win. Oh wait, that’s not nominated. Okay, judging purely by public response, my guess is it will be Room.

Haven’t seen Room or Brooklyn. I thought the only real chances were The Revenant and* Spotlight*. I watched Spotlight last night so definitely The Revenant. Must have been weird for Tom McCarthy turning up to direct that cast after immediately prior working with Razzie nominated Adam Sandler on The Cobbler.

I’ve only seen The Martian and The Big Short, so I gotta get it in gear.

I’m predicting The Martian will take it.

I haven’t seen any of them, but I’ll go with The Revenant. It seems to be a favorite.

Am I the only one completely blown away by the Mad Max nomination? I’m rather stunned by it. I’ve enjoyed those type of films but honestly I feel they’re rather low-brow. To me, this is like Solarbabies getting a nomination. If Alien were released today, would it garner such acclaim? It would seem to be a far superior film.

BwanaBob, did you see the most recent Mad Max? It’s not in the same category as Beyond Thunderdome. Sure, it’s an action movie with 90 minutes of car chases and explosions, but it was smart and inventive. It won’t win, but for “those types of films” it was the best in years and years.

I’ve seen all eight nominees. I won’t be surprised if The Revenant wins - it was a visually arresting film and had to be difficult to make; they can’t really give the Oscar to Inarratu (I’m sure I spelled that wrong) two years in a row, so they might vote BP instead. It’s not undeserving, exactly, but it wasn’t my favorite nominee.

I voted for The Martian to win. That might be wishful thinking but I’m hoping for a Revenant backlash. I’d also be happy to see Spotlight win but I think that’s more of a longshot than it was two months ago.

Other random thoughts about the nominees:

  • Brooklyn was a complete delight. Go see it. Bring a date.
  • The kid from Room should have been nominated. He was amazing.
  • This may be the first Oscars in years where I actually liked all the BP nominees, although some more than others. I won’t be really upset by any of them winning. It’s impossible to compare Room and Mad Max and say one was better than the other. (Although I think the nomination for Bridge of Spies was a bit perfunctory – like it had to be nominated because it’s Hanks/Spielberg. I liked it fine, but did not come out of the theater thinking it deserved a BP nomination).

I expected The Martian to be much more competitive in this poll.

Can’t wait to see The Revenant.

The lack of a director nod for Ridley Scott all but killed its chances. These are the primary categories that most frequently align themselves with a Best Picture win: Director, Screenplay, Editing.

Films w/o a Director nod: Bridge, Brooklyn, Martian
Films w/o a Screenplay nod: Max, Revenant
Films w/o an Editing nod: Bridge, Brooklyn, Martian, Room.

None of these are deal-breakers, but the more you have, the better off you are. Also, those films with the most nominations usually do better because it shows their support has great breadth across multiple branches. This year, the two leaders are Revenant (12) and Max (10). The Martian places a distant third, with 7.

Haven’t seen The Martian or Room, yet. Of the rest, it’s The Big Short over **The Revenant **followed by Bridge of Spies, Spotlight, Brooklyn… and waaaaay behind Mad Max: Fury Road, which baffles me in the love it’s getting.

I haven’t seen enough of them yet to form an opinion, but I’m surprised at all the buzz over The Revenant. I’d be disappointed (again) in the Oscars if this meandering and unpleasant film wins, and if di Caprio wins anything it should be “most overrated actor”.

The Martian probably deserves something for cinematography and it was definitely entertaining and well made, but I’m not sure about “best film of the year” by any means. Bridge of Spies was like Spielberg setting out to prove that he’s still got the magic touch, and he does – everybody involved in this film knows what they’re doing, and they’ve spun an intriguing story in which not only the physical sets but the social values are a perfectly reconstructed 1960. Both those last two I’d like to see again. I haven’t yet seen Spotlight or The Big Short, but social commentary is always good fodder for an Oscar.

I’m not doubting, but I’m curious if this proven statistically. Cite?

In any event, I was referring specifically to the SDMB; I expected Dopers to be all Martiany.

In the last 50 years, the number of Best Picture winners without a nomination in the following categories:

Director: Argo, Driving Miss Daisy (2)
Screenplay: The Sound of Music, Titanic (2)
Editing: Annie Hall, Birdman, The Godfather Part II, A Man for All Seasons, Ordinary People (5)

To add one more, Acting (encompassing all 4 categories): Braveheart, The Last Emperor, LOTR: Return of the King, Slumdog Millionaire (4)

So that’s 90% or higher for each.

Nominees this year with no acting nominations: Max

I think if the question was “What is your personal favorite?” vs. “What do you predict will win?”, then I think you’re right–the film would be doing better.

I’m sticking by my prediction of “The Revenant” but amongst the ones I have seen, if I had a vote, it’d be for “Mad Max.”

“The Revenant” was a hell of a movie, don’t get me wrong.

I’ll have to check it out. I work with a lady whose husband is in the Academy. Maybe he has a screener I can borrow.

I have seen none of them. I voted for Spotlight because it’s an “important” movie.

Well. The Producers Guild of America just threw a complication into it by picking THE BIG SHORT for best picture.

ETA: I should add, the PGA best picture last failed to match the Academy’s in 2006. Prediction-wise it’s a big deal.

That’s… well, it’s kind of stunning, actually. What a weird wrinkle.