My location is a deeply hidden secret only the most perceptive can discover.
One guy back in college couldn’t remember my username either and so just called me “carebears” instead. It’s actually kinda scary how similar the two words are.
I’d like to get an early vote in in the hopes that everybody ends Monday with a vote on somebody. So
vote RyJae
because of his last minute de-bandwagoning and hopping on anyrose, who by that time was not looking all that scummy.
I’m not following here at all. The point I was trying to make was that the votes for anyrose were based on her OMGUS vote and the fact that she wasn’t posting much. We knew that she was inexperienced, and given that, and OMGUS vote is far more consistent with an inexperienced townie than an inexperienced scum. The latter part is either stylistic or metagaming, it isn’t useful at all.
She specifically made note several times about how much different the game was than she expected and how hard it was to keep up. Her frustration was clearly much more consistent with a frustrated townie than a frustrated scum. Obviously, me saying that now could legitimately be pointed out as potential post hoc reasoning, which is exactly why I referenced a post that was made prior to her lynch that laid out much of the reasoning. But let’s look at the potential scenarios from Yesterday:
She was scum, Thing Fish was town: In this case, at the point she expressed frustration and asked to be replaced, Thing Fish was going to be lynched. It was going fairly well, especially since others, like me, would have taken a lot more heat for his lynch than her. Plus, she would have known she’d have gotten to talk to her fellow scum and get some advice. This scenario is not consistent with her frustration.
She was scum, Thing Fish was also scum: Sure, as a newbie scum, she might have been frustrated that one of her fellow scum was going down, so it seems reasonable for her, as scum, to be frustrated. But, Thing Fish is also new. So you have to consider the possibility that two new scum, would independently decide to initiate that sort of dichotomy. Not only that, but that a scummy Thing Fish would deliberately push a fellow scums wagon on Day One without any sort of strategy. It just doesn’t make sense.
She was town: She was confused because of how much was going on and how nitpicky everyone is. She was overrun trying to keep up with the game. She was frustrated because some people were making monster posts analyzing and re-analyzing everything, and she was trying to get her thoughts out there in the way that she was expecting to do it. This seems very consistent with her behavior.
All of this is reasoning that can be done without knowledge of her actual towniness.
My point is this: it was not obvious to me that anyrose was Town, and I didn’t vote for the reasons you stated. You’re saying it should have been obvious that she was Town; I’m disagreeing that it was obvious.
It’s past 3 am here and I’m getting pretty sleepy, but I think fluiddruid was right that it’d be good to get votes in earlier this time so I’m going to post my thoughts before crashing for the night.
If I’m following the conversation correctly, the following people have some suspicion (of various merit) surrounding them:
- Thing Fish (unless everyone you voted for him yesterday have changed their minds)
- Blaster Master/fluiddruid, for not getting killed.
- Oredigger77, because Koldanar was suspicious of him
- peekercpa, for being “bossy”
- those who voted for anyrose, especially those who jumped on at the end
I think that actually only leaves Dotchan, Hoopy Frood, and Zsofia untouched. And Dotchan hasn’t really started playing yet.
My thoughts on the various suspects:
- I didn’t think he was scum Yesterday and nothing he’s done this far Today has caused me to change my mind. I thought his post on RyJae made sense and his vote summary helpful to Town (sorry peeker, but I understood it right away). I would be interested in hearing from those who voted for him Yesterday whether they still feel that he merits suspicion.
- I’m not convinced that this is a null tell as suggested, but the logic behind it seems to be based upon an underestimation of Koldanar’s experience as a player. It also strikes me as being along the road to WIFOM madness. Too many variables.
- This was suggested by RyJae, but looking at the Koldanar quote in question I don’t find it particularly strong.
- The reason given by fluiddruid for voting for him. I disagree (so far I’ve found him to be one of the more pleasant posters) and the charge wasn’t really substantiated by anything when it was made.
- I tossed this one at the end on purpose, since it seems to merit the most attention. It feels a little uncomfortable for me to criticize people for this, since I was one of them. But I think that there were two votes for anyrose that stand apart: that of RyJae and The Unkempt One. They both occurred less than 6 hours before voting ended and both were switches from Thing Fish. Of the two RyJae’s is the more suspicious because it was the earlier one (when jumping off the bandwagon would have seemed safer) and because he doesn’t really give any reason for his ultimate choice of anyrose. The last few posts by Thing Fish and Blaster Master put it better (and with more detail) than I can. Ultimately though, I think the strongest case to be made at the moment is against RyJae.
Therefore, I’m casting the dreaded 3rd vote (scumtell!):
vote RyJae
I am going to echo the sentiments about getting a vote in early. Yesterday is a perfect example of what can happen last minute. Thing Fish was leading anyrose 8 - 3 with under five hours to go if I have the MST implications figured correctly. And look at who eventually ended getting strectched (and the results of that strectching).
Last minute bandwaggons seem to most often (maybe close to always) end up in poor outcomes.
And what would my “scum” motivator be, unless of course I was protecting Thing Fish after attacking him all day? I made an obvious vote switch late in the day that would be a stupid move by scum as it’s guaranteed to attract attention.
Hell I knew it would attract attention to me, but I also didn’t feel Thing Fish was at that point was scum and the only other person that pinged me had been anyrose So I had three choices.
A: Keep my vote on Thing Fish
B: Move my vote to the only other person that felt even remotely scummy.
C: Move my vote to a random person I drew from randomness.
Which option would you have chosen if you like me felt Thing Fishes last few posts of the day explained away the scum feelings you had?
I made the wrong choice, we all do in this game but to apply my move as a scummy move is just plain wrong.
No, see now you’re assuming I thought he was scum, I don’t. I was the first one to question him on his smudges etc. I sure as hell would not have been a fellow scum to attack then withdraw my vote so freaking suspiciously had I been scum with him. That’s just basic common sense, to anyone.
I spent the last portion of Yesterday persuaded people to save Thing Fish, I actually did think it could be done. I assumed correctly Thing Fish would switch his vote to save himself and well it happened.
If Thing Fish would have died yesterday and turned up scum I would have felt like a jackass for defending him at the end of the day even with his attacks on me. If he would have turned up town I would have felt proud of myself for getting a correct read. Both those are still on the table.
If Thing Fish is town and it was town vs town yesterday which is a good possibility I don’t think any person was guiding anything from my reading. The only attempts at guiding actually where my own in the last few hours of the day. I made a mistake.
So instead I went with who Koldanar suspected and openly FOSed basically that was Oredigger77 and Thing Fish. Since I don’t have any reason to suspect Thing Fish (that’s why I did change my vote) my vote went on Oredigger77. I voted early and will move my vote if I feel I should. It’s my club and I’ll wield it how I deem appropriate at this stage. 
Help this make sense to me cckerberos you think Thing Fish is town yet you suspect me because I took my vote off him and put it on anyrose (who sadly happened to be confirmed town) This makes no sense to me, either you think I’m scum in league with Thing Fish who would also be scum but you don’t think he is, or I saved one town for the death of another town? This conflusters me to no end.
As I explained above I made a choice based on the same posts you refer to of Thing Fish’s that he was town, and since I had my vote on him I couldn’t just let it stay there, I had to move my vote. And yes it went on anyrose, townie but I didn’t know it at the time, bad me, but not scum bad me.
Ok, it may not have been obvious to you; that’s fine. What I’m saying is that the votes were poorly reasoned. The votes for her were based upon the act and the result rather than the underlying motivation. So, OMGUS, is that bad strategy, generally, yes. Does bad strategy look scummy? Absolutely. Is it necessarily scummy? Absolutely not.
Poorly reasoned votes could simply be that and nothing more. Or, they could be people with special information that know where they want their vote to be, then work backwards trying to find reasons to do so.
IOW, it may not have been obvious that she was town to you, but she sure as hell wasn’t scummier than Thing Fish. The three votes I picked out (yours, RyJae’s and Unkempt’s) all struck me as being poorly reasoned which means, either you just didn’t put a lot effort into it, or you decided to vote for her first and came up with reasons afterward. The first possibility is only slightly scummy, but the latter possibility is VERY scummy. Thus, I think it’s quite reasonable to say there’s a high probability that at least one scum lies between the three of you and I want to examine each of you more closely.
But it would have gotten you off the “Thing Fish Bandwagon List”, after it looked like it was in the bag, wouldn’t it? When you switched, it didn’t look like anyrose was really going to be lynched.
Whoops - sorry, I miscolored my vote. To clarify:
vote RyJae
The logic basically goes like this:
- Assume you are scum and Thing Fish is town
- You want TF to get lynched, but know that once he’s dead it’ll be revealed that he was town thus making everyone who voted for him look suspicious
- The Day is almost over and TF has what seems like an unsurmountable lead in votes. By switching your vote away from TF to anyrose under those circumstances you improve your position. Even if you switch away from TF he still has plenty of other people voting for him so he’s still going to get lynched, but you won’t be one of the ones with blood on your hand.
I think the logic is sound (though obviously you’d disagree with the assumptions of my first point)
I know this was directed toward bufftabby but I want to respond since I might not have in my replies above.
1: I attacked Thing Fish for his smudges etc, voted for him. Spread out over multiple posts.
2: I question anyrose saying she was convinced that her random vote on Thing Fish was correct. LINK to the post I found odd and called her on in post post 296
Which led to her meltdown immediately after that (the very next post in response to mine). That was pretty damn suspicious to me. Of course it was just a frustrated townie so I made a mistake.
So I made a total of 2 suspicions, then when Thing Fish posted his explanations, I either fell for a bullshit excuse or I am correct in thinking he was town, so now I had to move my vote so I moved it to the only other person I was suspicious of the entire day.
Nothing else I can say actually, I made an anti-town move or a neutral move (If Thing Fish is in fact town) I in no way helped town and I’m sorry.
The logic fails here. You’re assuming that we believe that you’re town and that you believed Thing Fish was innocent. This is a circular argument.
After reading through the rest of the Day, I didn’t see any compelling evidence to believe this is your actual motiation. You’re riding his ass all Day, then you ask him what he’d do differently for which I cannot determine any conceivable pro-town motivation, where I can only see “I want to get my vote off of you” as motivation. Then you switch your vote to the only other person who has multiple votes.
So, you tell me, what was your motivation for asking him what he’d do differently? How does his response trump all the smudges and other evidence that you were pushing against him?
No, I’m not assuming you thought he was scum. In fact, my entire example was predicated around a distinct and likely possibility for you if you’re town because, as town, even if you think he’s town, it’s still possible that he would show up as scum when he was lynched. This, to me, stinks of extra knowledge.
So my question remains valid and pertinent. If Thing Fish WAS lynched yesterday and showed up as scum, would you still be voting for anyrose Today like you claimed you would have earlier Today? Are you arguing that Thing Fish being lynched Yesterday and showing up scum, at the point that you switched your vote, is “funky”?
Here’s the point, you say you don’t have any reason to suspect Thing Fish, I disagree, but fine that’s irrelevant. But, you also don’t have any reason to suspect Oredigger. The only thing you have against him applies equally to Thing Fish. Beyond that, as I’ve pointed out already Today and in previous games, reasoning on Koldanar’s death as either reason to vote or not vote for someone is based entirely on WIFOM, so even that which you have against both of them is essentially baseless as well.
And my mind is not totally made up but at this point the late vote shifts to anyrose really are standing out to me. In the interest of getting a vote in early this is where my focus is going to be. Low hanging fruit and all that.
Okay valid I guess but why would I not just change my vote but
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9805176&postcount=336
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9805372&postcount=344
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9805460&postcount=349
why would I repeatedly in the hours before time up draw attention to this vote switch if it wasn’t what I thought was the correct thing in the towns interest?
My motivation actually was thought out it was this, he knew he was going to die he had no hope the votes where not in his favor in anyway. So I wanted to see what he had to say. I don’t think he thought he had a chance in hell so I wanted to see his reaction. It was a “gonna be dead soon” townie feel to me. I’ll expand on the rest of your post if I can but I think I explained as much as I could in my previous posts.
Point 2 is very misleading. You may have called her on it in post 296, but I’d already called her on it in post 250, which was a simulpost with her reasoning behind that in post 249. Did you not find her comment that he was backpedalling reasonable? Is it beyond reason that others would see his behavior from Yesterday as being indicative of backpedalling?
I happened to agree with her assessment that he was backpedalling which is why I didn’t press it any farther. By now, if not before you made post 296, you must have seen that exchange between her and I.
Is that the extent of your suspicion for her? Did you fail to see her explanation? Did you not agree that it was an accurate assessment of his behavior? If you didn’t think it was accurate, do you think it’s reasonable that a townie could interpret his behavior that way? Do you somehow believe all that but see her explanation of it as something less than genuine and why?
Again, what about her “meltdown” was necessarily scummy? At worst, I can see it being a null tell, but based upon tone and the timing, I can’t see it as anything other than a frustrated townie.
What about his explanation made you less suspicious of him? If your suspicion was mild, I’d buy that, but you were one of the most gungho for his lynch (possibly second only to me), and yet one single small post changes that and you rest that vote on calling her out for something for which someone else already did
more than 18 hours earlier?
Look I tried explaining the best I can if you want to put a vote on me by all means go for it. But spend some time on other options today. It’s only Monday I’m not that concerned unless everyone spends much more time on me.
That’s exactly what I don’t get. What kind of response were you expecting? Were you expecting him to give up and say “Damn it, I’m scum, I give up.”? Surely, if he’s scum, he’s still going to try to wiggle his way out by looking genuine, no? What makes that any bit differentiable from a townie response?
And, for the sake of argument, let’s assume I buy that you have pro-town motivation for that question, what exactly about his response seems townie? Wouldn’t a scum in the same situation regret the same actions?
So the bottom line is, you expect us to believe, after spending the whole Day going after him, and having plenty of evidence against him, that you get something out of about two sentences, that you fail to substantiate, and that it supercedes all the evidence against him? Either you’re a very instinctual and intuitive player (which is not my assessment of you), or your contradicting your own logic.
Well BlaM I wanted to go after the person I felt was scummier. His response would have been my response if I was a townie cut/dry. I made a mistake, something a lot of us do in this game especially early on in voting for anyrose. (I could still be right about Thing Fish though!) I spent the day knowing I would be attacked for it if anyrose came back town but I had to go with my gut. I waved a huge flag, repeatedly after I switched votes because I honestly thought anyrose was scummier than Thing Fish.