Doperville Mafia - New Players Welcome!

[Thing_Fish]

Unkempt, the fact that you were among the first to vote for me and then swtiched at the last moment is actually not in your favor. It would be highly consistent with a scum motivation to push the bandwagon and then jump off (see cck’s post 451 for an excellent explanation of this logic).
Whether it was only late in the Day that I started to defend myself well is subjective. I tend to think that my post on Tuesday was a masterpiece of persuasive rhetoric (remember, BlaM said egotism is a null tell! ). By late in the Day, I was actually no longer even trying to defend myself, I was trying to present an analysis of the bandwagon that people could look back on later once I was confirmed Town. I guess if RyJae and Unkempt do turn up Town, this will be some kind of Zen phenomenon of action-through-inaction. Or something.

I am glad people are starting to put some heat on Unkempt, I see him as being only a razor’s edge less suspicious than RyJae at this point. I am still voting RyJae because, as explained in my post 414, I can place his vote change in the context of a larger pattern of potentially scummish behavior.

On the other hand, if we take my “scum motivation to keep NAF out of the game” theory seriously (which nobody except possibly BlaM seems inclined to do), Unkempt’s vote timing actually looks more suspicious than** RyJae’s**.
To pin this motivation on RyJae, we would have to assume that he looked at the replacement-recruitment thread, which is not an unreasonable assumption, but is still an assumption. But for Unkempt:

cck mentions in post 345 that NAF is set to sub in.
Three posts and eight realtime minutes later, Unkempt asks for a vote count.
About an hour later, in post 353, he changes his vote. Admittedly, bufftabbyhad posted her (IMO) very persuasive 350 arguing against my bandwagon in the interim.

Subjectively, RyJae’s explanation of his vote change at the time felt more sincere to me than Unkempt’s, but I think that’s a null tell – RyJae may just be more skilled at wielding the proverbial shovel.

So I’m seeing it as close to neck and neck at this point, and would be happy to examine the interior portions of either neck come sundown. I’d be even happier if someone could come up with a case against someone else so we’d have more to talk about, but I’m not seeing anyone who looks as suspicious as these two right now.

[RyJae]

Examining my neck won’t reveal much other than we’re down 3 townies. In serious news, we as a group need to start examining others because right now the real scum are gleeful that it is me on the block and not one of them. And you need to be ready to look around once you find me as town.

[Zsofia]

I don’t think “I’m town, I swear it!” is exactly “examining others”, as you say we should do.

[The_Unkempt_One]

@Thing Fish

Unkempt, the fact that you were among the first to vote for me and then swtiched at the last moment is actually not in your favor. It would be highly consistent with a scum motivation to push the bandwagon and then jump off (see cck’s post 451 for an excellent explanation of this logic).
Whether it was only late in the Day that I started to defend myself well is subjective. I tend to think that my post on Tuesday was a masterpiece of persuasive rhetoric (remember, BlaM said egotism is a null tell! ). By late in the Day, I was actually no longer even trying to defend myself, I was trying to present an analysis of the bandwagon that people could look back on later once I was confirmed Town. I guess if RyJae and Unkempt do turn up Town, this will be some kind of Zen phenomenon of action-through-inaction. Or something.

I am glad people are starting to put some heat on Unkempt, I see him as being only a razor’s edge less suspicious than RyJae at this point. I am still voting RyJae because, as explained in my post 414, I can place his vote change in the context of a larger pattern of potentially scummish behavior.

On the other hand, if we take my “scum motivation to keep NAF out of the game” theory seriously (which nobody except possibly BlaM seems inclined to do), Unkempt’s vote timing actually looks more suspicious than** RyJae’s**.
To pin this motivation on RyJae, we would have to assume that he looked at the replacement-recruitment thread, which is not an unreasonable assumption, but is still an assumption. But for Unkempt:

cck mentions in post 345 that NAF is set to sub in.
Three posts and eight realtime minutes later, Unkempt asks for a vote count.
About an hour later, in post 353, he changes his vote. Admittedly, bufftabbyhad posted her (IMO) very persuasive 350 arguing against my bandwagon in the interim.

Subjectively, RyJae’s explanation of his vote change at the time felt more sincere to me than Unkempt’s, but I think that’s a null tell – RyJae may just be more skilled at wielding the proverbial shovel.

So I’m seeing it as close to neck and neck at this point, and would be happy to examine the interior portions of either neck come sundown. I’d be even happier if someone could come up with a case against someone else so we’d have more to talk about, but I’m not seeing anyone who looks as suspicious as these two right now.

I can tell you that one of the reasons for switching my vote off of you so late in the first Day is certainly caused by a little bit of stubbornness. I was JUST. SO. SURE. that you were scum right off the bat that it took a lot of convincing to make me change my vote. BUT, once I no longer thought that you were the scummiest person in here, I could not in good conscience let my vote stay on you.

Looking back, it may have been a strategic mistake to take my vote off of you, but in the end it achieved the desired effect of saving someone who I thought was town. I hope that I am not completely wrong about you, Thing Fish.

[RyJae]

@Zsofia

I don’t think “I’m town, I swear it!” is exactly “examining others”, as you say we should do.

And the purpose of this comment? I already pointed out examining someone else, so if that’s the comment whatever. I am town, and once you kill me then you need to start thinking about who next to lynch and hope its not another townie.

[Amblydoper]

Vote Count
**RyJae - 3 ** (Thing Fish, Zsofia, cckerberos)
**The Unkempt One - 2 ** (Hoopy Frood, bufftabby)
**Oredigger77 - 1 ** (RyJae)
**fluiddruid - 1 ** (The Unkempt One)

Not Voting
peekercpa, Oredigger77, Dotchan, fluiddruid, Blaster Master

[Zsofia]

@RyJae

And the purpose of this comment? I already pointed out examining someone else, so if that’s the comment whatever. I am town, and once you kill me then you need to start thinking about who next to lynch and hope its not another townie.

I just feel it sounds very “Oh, you’ll be sorry when you find out I’m town” - an appeal to emotion rather than a rational defense. “Look at how town I am - I’m trying to help you by deflecting suspicion from me!” You admit your actions did not help town on Day 1.

[RyJae]

@Zsofia

I just feel it sounds very “Oh, you’ll be sorry when you find out I’m town” - an appeal to emotion rather than a rational defense. “Look at how town I am - I’m trying to help you by deflecting suspicion from me!” You admit your actions did not help town on Day 1.

No its an appeal to start looking elsewhere since if I get lynched town will be down four players. My “rational” defense you so quickly overlooked was spanned over multiple posts today, if they where not sufficient for you thats okay but trying to pretend they don’t exist is not a good rational for attacking me here.

Damn right I admit my ONE action my vote for anyrose was not in the towns best interest, day one lynch of townie mistake. It happens, just as your day 2 attempt at lynching me will be examined as it should be when I turn up town. All I am saying is look around, this tunnel vision is not going to win the game.

[Hoopy_Frood]

@Thing Fish

So I’m seeing it as close to neck and neck at this point, and would be happy to examine the interior portions of either neck come sundown. I’d be even happier if someone could come up with a case against someone else so we’d have more to talk about, but I’m not seeing anyone who looks as suspicious as these two right now.

Exactly. They used the same reason for unvoting you (i.e. your “eloquent” defense of yourself), and pretty much the same logic behind their votes for anyrose. And they switched at roughly the same time. And they seem to be using similar defenses as to why they’re not scum. I’m keeping my vote where it is for now for lack of any better choices at this point.

One possibility that keeps kicking around in my mind, however, is that maybe they’re the masons. And The Unkempt One being a first timer decided to follow his mason buddy on a vote/unvote thing. I can’t see them both being scum because of the attention that such an act would draw, but since our Mod confirmed that no one can communicate during the day, and only scum can talk at night, there was no chance for any strategy to be determined between the members of each group. So it’s possible The Unkempt One made a newbie slip from either side. At this point I think we need to keep both of their feet to the fire, but we are getting really close to crunch time, and I’d really like to hear what those who have been silent for most of toDay think about this whole situation(e.g. dotchan and fludidruid), particularly since I won’t be around for end Day due to participating in the Chase Corporate Challenge 3.5 mile run tomorrow night, which means I won’t be able to change my vote in the last few hours.

[The_Unkempt_One]

@bufftabby

Well, this is interesting. The Unkempt One’s post voting for anyrose. He’s got his reasons;
it’s just that, well, they’re already my reasons. While they’re not half-bad reasons, it seems pretty scummy to piggyback so completely on my vote. This way, if he gets questioned on the vote, he can lay the blame on me. Bonus: he doesn’t even have to come up with his own reasons to vote. What’s the easiest way to find Townie reasons to vote? Copy off of a Townie. I find this all highly suspect.

vote The Unkempt One

Ok, I see your point about piggybacking on your vote. However, at that point in the Day I was starting to doubt my vote for **Thing Fish ** and you were kind enough to point out some reasons that you found anyrose to be scummy. You made several points that I agreed with. This, combined with Thing Fish’s defense of himself is what lead to my vote change.

However, I think that it is fair to respond to this:

@bufftabby

This way, if he gets questioned on the vote, he can lay the blame on me.

This hasn’t happened, has it? I made up my own mind to switch my vote, and you are not responsible for it in any way. My vote is my own. There may be good reasons to be suspicious of me, but this isn’t one.

[fluiddruid]

@peekercpa

Hey fluiddruid can you re visit your thoughts about how I was being “bossy”. After the way the first Day played out I would like to think that I am encouraging participation as opposed to stifling. But if there is something that I personally did I’d like your feedback. Ultimtately it’s up to the anyroses and twickster’s 'of this world to keep this thing from just being meaningless three handed nonsense.

Sure. It hasn’t struck me again since that time. It’s just that, for whatever reason, your early posts had a pretty rough edge - hence my “who peed in your cornflakes?” comment. It wasn’t so much that I had intended to call you out on it, but that it struck me as a change of character - which can often indicate a change of role. Your response that it was from learning the first time (IIRC) was fair enough, I s’pose, but I guess I’m trying to err on the side of passivity since it’s a newbie game.

[fluiddruid]

@The Unkempt One

I am suspicious that fluiddruid has had so little interaction with the rest of us during this game. It makes it difficult to really gauge her position or intentions. I spent some time looking over the past Day and a half, and I couldn’t really find enough on her to form an opinion one way or another. To make good decisions we need as much info from people as possible, and as of now we just don’t have much info from her.

Fair enough. I expected as much. For what it’s worth I have a pounding headache and a wedding coming up, and I have been embroiled in a bit of a drama over it, culminating in the last few days. You can see MPSIMS for the details, they’re really not germane to the discussion.

I’m trying to go through the thread as best I can to-Day, particularly as I suggested early voting, then haven’t fulfilled it myself.

[fluiddruid]

@Thing Fish

Unkempt, the fact that you were among the first to vote for me and then swtiched at the last moment is actually not in your favor. It would be highly consistent with a scum motivation to push the bandwagon and then jump off (see cck’s post 451 for an excellent explanation of this logic).

I tend to agree with this line of thinking. Further, I am fearful that we are falling into the trap of only considering a single individual.

I would like to hear a great deal more from Unkempt regarding this issue. As much as I’m sure it looks like an OMGUS vote, I think this needs to be explained more fully. Switching votes at the last minute is generally contrary to Town’s benefit.

@cckerberos

But I think that there were two votes for anyrose that stand apart: that of RyJae and The Unkempt One. They both occurred less than 6 hours before voting ended and both were switches from Thing Fish.

Very good point.

Of the two RyJae’s is the more suspicious because it was the earlier one (when jumping off the bandwagon would have seemed safer) and because he doesn’t really give any reason for his ultimate choice of anyrose.

I can’t say I agree with the former half, though the latter half concerns me a bit. In my opinion it is far easier for scum to hide using agreement than dissent. If I were scum looking to swing a vote, I’d be looking at people who were already getting votes in order to tip the balance more easily.

So, for now, in the interest of early voting and getting some more detail out of him (her?):

vote Unkempt One

[The_Unkempt_One]

@fluiddruid

I tend to agree with this line of thinking. Further, I am fearful that we are falling into the trap of only considering a single individual.

I would like to hear a great deal more from Unkempt regarding this issue. As much as I’m sure it looks like an OMGUS vote, I think this needs to be explained more fully. Switching votes at the last minute is generally contrary to Town’s benefit.

Very good point.
I can’t say I agree with the former half, though the latter half concerns me a bit. In my opinion it is far easier for scum to hide using agreement than dissent. If I were scum looking to swing a vote, I’d be looking at people who were already getting votes in order to tip the balance more easily.

So, for now, in the interest of early voting and getting some more detail out of him (her?):

vote Unkempt One

I have done my best to explain why I changed my vote. I accused Thing Fish of being scum pretty early in the Day, and stuck to my guns for quite a while. However, he really started to make a good defense of himself later in the day, so much so that I was no longer confident in my vote. I could have kept my vote on him, but I didn’t think that it was the best place for a vote any more.

anyrose established that she was not really interested in searching for scum and was essentially in a pissing match with Thing Fish. Because I thought that Thing Fish was town, it made sense to me to change my vote to anyrose.

I have got to go for a few hours, I think. I will do my best to write more later.

[fluiddruid]

@The Unkempt One

anyrose established that she was not really interested in searching for scum and was essentially in a pissing match with Thing Fish. Because I thought that Thing Fish was town, it made sense to me to change my vote to anyrose.

I have got to go for a few hours, I think. I will do my best to write more later.

But anyrose was dropping out of the game. You don’t think the more likely cause of her lack of interest was because she was frustrated with the game (as she explicitly said) and her substitution was pending?

[bufftabby]

@Hoopy Frood

Ya know. The same could be said about your vote on him since you’re piggybacking on my reasoning. Though, you are more explicit about what seems suspicious about the me-too than I was.

You know what’s funny about that? I was looking around DayOne’s posts to see if anything struck me as suspicious, and Unkempt One’s post did for the reasons I mentioned earlier. I hadn’t actually noticed at that point that you had voted for him as well. Besides, did you read his post I quoted? He basically just quoted me for his vote reasoning. That’s really what set the bells off for me. I don’t even mind that he switched votes, its the vote itself that’s a problem.

[The_Unkempt_One]

@fluiddruid

But anyrose was dropping out of the game. You don’t think the more likely cause of her lack of interest was because she was frustrated with the game (as she explicitly said) and her substitution was pending?

I didn’t think that my vote was best used on Thing Fish any more. The only other person who had even pinged me at that point was anyrose. Remember, we are still talking about Day one votes! Just because anyrose said that she had asked to be replaced didn’t mean that I should automatically discount everything that she had said and done prior to that point.

[The_Unkempt_One]

@bufftabby

You know what’s funny about that? I was looking around DayOne’s posts to see if anything struck me as suspicious, and Unkempt One’s post did for the reasons I mentioned earlier. I hadn’t actually noticed at that point that you had voted for him as well. Besides, did you read his post I quoted? He basically just quoted me for his vote reasoning. That’s really what set the bells off for me. I don’t even mind that he switched votes, its the vote itself that’s a problem.

What? I’m not sure I understand. You say that it is the vote itself that is the problem…when I voted for the same person that you did?

I asked for you to provide some info as to why you thought that anyrose was acting scummy:

@The Unkempt One

My vote is currently against Thing Fish, but I would be interested to hear what reasons you think anyrose manufactured to vote against Thing Fish. On this first Day, any info that we can gather would be really helpful.

you replied with post #350.

However, in between then, Thing Fish responded with post # 338, which really made me think about my vote. However, before you even responded with your post #350, I mention the following in post # 343, about Thing Fish.

@The Unkempt One

You have made many good points in your last two posts. My main reasons for voting for you were because of what I thought was you misrepresenting anyrose’s comments about you, and what I thought was you giving yourself an out because of your vote. You have explained yourself better in your last long post than in many of your previous posts.

I hope I have time to read through the thread, AGAIN, to see if I should place my vote elsewhere.

I was already having misgivings about my vote on Thing Fish, as shown in the above quote. I didn’t base my decision only on your research!

So, I didn’t base my vote simply on what you said, but on a combination of what you said, the way that Thing Fish defended himself, and my own feelings toward the way that anyrose had played up to the point that I changed my vote.

[Blaster_Master]

@Thing Fish

OK, BlaM, I’m going to go over this one more time, because I think I’ve already adequately addressed all your points.

246: Really not seeing how either of the things you quoted me saying could have been construed as any sort of “argument” at all, strawman or otherwise, they are simply assertions. Quoting myself:

“I already clarified that I was not telling her not to defend herself, and that I should have stated this more clearly than I did”

You felt that what I said “implied” that I told her not to defend herself. Fine, I can accept that I need to be much more careful in this game to make my meaning crystal clear. Other people besides you did read it the same way, but there are also those who did not.

I read it that implication, and I think it’s understandable that I could read it that way particularly since I was not the only one who did. As such, I think hitting on that point as “off the rail” is not fair. This IS a game that involves reading people, which means a lot about determining motivations and reading between the lines. As such, I maintain that this is a point against you, it’s not a case in and of itself, but it is a point nonetheless.

And then:
“I’m a newbie who has more experience reading and carefully analyzing games than it appears a lot of the other newbies here do. Sorry if I came off as egotistical, but I prefer that to sitting back and letting the “veterans” like yourself lead everyone around by the nose, because if you happen to be scum, we’re all screwed.”

The second line of that quote was rather ill-considered and provoked by frustration. I submit that the first line did in fact directly address your original question, however. It is simply not true that I “never answered that apparent contradiction”.

Fair enough, I’ll concede that newbie/veteran contradiciton because, quite frankly, the implications of the second sentence far outweigh those of the first. So, fine, make that one off the list.

248: I’ve reviewed the first Day in some detail, and I can’t see where I was in any way critical of anyrose’s OMGUS vote. I did mention in passing a couple times that it was in fact an OMGUS vote (which nobody, including her, ever disputed), but that’s not the same thing as “acting all suspicious”. My initial vote on RyJae was partially OMGUS and partially for lurking. That’s not a contradiction, because I never said that I had a problem with OMGUS votes early in Day One. I didn’t regard that as in any way a compelling argument, and I looked for a better one by the end of the day, which turned out to still point to RyJae (my final vote, of course, was motivated by pure self-preservation).

Perhaps it’s an incorrect attribution on my part. I do remember you mentioning the OMGUS vote, but I seem to remember it in a negative light. I’ll have to go back and reread that whole exchange to determine if that assessment is correct. Consider this point on hold for now. I’ll go back and reread if/when you become my top suspect again and thus worth spending the time to reinvestigate.

252: I think I have already addressed all these.

Your explanations have been very thought-provoking and helpful for understanding your outlook on the game. I continue to feel that your representations of my statements were not entirely fair or accurate, and this provokes a certain level of suspicion. You apparently still have some suspicion of me as well. Fair enough. I think my posts from Yesterday have been analyzed enough that everyone has been able to come to their own conclusions about how suspicious they were, so I don’t think it serves any pro-Town purpose to continue rehashing this discussion. But if you still have questions, feel free.

My representations may not necessarily be fair or accurate, but they were my honest perception. None of them is unreasonable given the circumstance particularly since several of those perceptions were shared by multiple people, which are highly improbably to be ALL scum. So sure, I could be dead wrong, but correctness, or lack thereof, is simply that, as both townies and scums can be wrong, it is only if my perception is unreasonable given the circumstances that it’s anything different than a null tell.

To clarify, I am still suspicious of you, but you’re not my top suspect. AFAICT, RyJae’s behavior is scummy regardless of your alignment, so he’s more worth considering at this point.

[peekercpa]

And I said I would get a vote in early. However, early for me would be today (Tuesday). I really have limited access during the week these days so the time I have to really do any meaningful read throughs or posts is going to happen at night or on the weekends. So Monday is too soon for me personally to try and have any kind of reasoned vote (and the person that makes any kind of deserved snarky comment about that phrasing is going to be one of potentially many). Having a Sunday kick off basically eliminates 50 percent of my time. If it didn’t cause anyone any grief could we ask CoG888 to move the Day lickoff to Saturday? If it does create hardship then tell me stuff it.

Ok. On with the matter at hand. After thinking about it both RyJaye and The Unkempt One’s votes were just bad. It just feels like one of them have to be scum. Having started with that premise it seems real unlikely that both would be scum. Especially knowing that they moved their votes off of Thing Fish which could also implicate him. I for the life of me can’t see that net being thrown and coming up with that type of catch.

And if my conclusion is uncool please let me know. During Simpletown Ryjae made a Miller claim. Ultimately unsuccessful, but damn wise at the time and so far out of left field that he bought his scum buddies a little time. Only someone with a little on the ball would have had the moxy to pull that one out of the hat. Of course, he was lying.

I think his vote switch was another moxy move.

Vote RyJaye

Heck pedescibe and I couldn’t agree with the others so to a great extent I was real involved in your lynch in Simpletwown. You were scum in that one. Let’s make it two in a row.