I wonder if this is going to change the nature of the campaign. Will Hillary step up the negative? There are already been kind of low key comments out of her side about his “electability”, which IMO is code for saying, “Can’t you see he’s BLACK?”. I suppose they could be talking about his youth. :dubious:
I suppose this campaign will answer a long asked question: who is more electable, a black man or a white woman?
This is a very good time for the question to play out. I think America is so fundamentally conservative that in “normal” times neither could win. But GWB has been so unbelievably destructive and the Pub candidates have been following him down the yellow brick road, that’s it’s hard to imagine either Obama or Clinton could lose.
I don’t think you’re giving the electorate much credit here. It’s hardly as if the two candidates are equivalent apart from race and gender. So to draw any conclusions on the relative electability of white women and black men you’d have to assume that people vote solely on race and gender at the exclusion of all else. While we might jest about the electorate being dim and tritely motivated (except for our good selves, naturally), I just don’t believe that’s true; at least, not to this extent. If one of the two gets elected, all it will tell us is that either women or black men are now electable. Moreover, if they fail it won’t prove that women/black men are unelectable, merely that these two aren’t.
It may be as simple as not having a whole lot of national name recognition, and thus starting out at a huge disadvantage to Clinton, Obama, and Edwards in the top spot. Someone more in touch with Virginia politics may know more.
Webb would be great, but as spoke- mentioned above, he’s not exactly young. I think Obama is better off with another “rising star” on the ticket, and I’m not sure you could put Webb in that category.
It’s worth remembering 2004, but it’s also worth noting that a huge shift in public opinion happened in 2005 or so. Both the public and the media were still pro-war and pro-Bush back then, hard as it is to believe.
2006 was a different ballgame, and 2008 will be too. The Democrats could certainly blow it, but for the first time it’s really theirs to blow.
For what it’s worth, a couple of the Obama people at our caucus told me that if the Obama group wasn’t viable, they were moving to the Edwards group. I don’t know if that was their personal preference or if the Obama organization suggested it.
It is sad that we still have to deal with whether a woman or black can be elected in the US. I am not convinced a black can. If we remember the differences between blacks and whites at the OJ verdict., we have to wonder. I think Edwards would be a safer choice. The repubs would set a new standard for swiftboating if Hillary became the nominee.
That article does not even suggest that Hillary has even proposed the possibility. It’s commentators saying it could happen, and the majority seem to think it farfetched.
I don’t like Hillary all that much, but I don’t she’d make a horrible president. She would probably be fine. Really, compared to what we have now, I’d be more than happy with HRC in the White House.
I just don’t think she has a chance of getting elected. None. The Republicans could nominate Boo Boo the Fool (like they did in 2000), and HRC would not be able to amass the number of votes to win. Look at the number of people on this supposedly liberal board who have negative things to say about Hillary. This does not bode well for her electability.The invisible fence-sitters and independents will probably have twice as many problems with her, if this thread is any indication.
I support Obama because 1) I like him and agree with his positions and 2) out of the three top Dem candidates, he’s the only one I think has the power to win the dang thing. Hillary has a lot of great things going for her (Hippy Hollow made an excellent point in the other thread about this), but she lacks the ability to get people to flock to her team. This is an important quality.
Obama may not be unstoppable but I think he’s got a better shot than HRC. So I’ll be disappointed it she receives the nomination, not because I think she’ll be a bad president, but because I really think if HRC is nominated, we might as well skip the election and say hello to President Guiliani.
What qualification does he not meet? You know that you you don’t even have to be a lawyer, or even have experience in the judicial system to sit on that bench. I don’t know that there are any requirements at all, other than being a citizen. He was disbarred (IIRC) from practicing law in AK for some period of time, but that’s over.
I don’t agree with the *vice versa * part. Edwards is on the left where Obama & Clinton on fairly moderate or centrist or whatever expression you want to use. Many looking at Obama won’t jump to Edwards. Some will and some won’t. I do see the Edwards voters leaning more towards Obama then Clinton. I just not sure I can say why. I think he would be more acceptable to democrats on the left than HRC, even if there is not a lot of difference between the two. If nothing else, Hillary being more blatantly Hawkish will work against her with those supporting Edwards.
Jim (I had decided to vote for Obama in the primary and I found yesterday I cannot, it takes 50 days in NJ to switch parties.)
To answer John and wring above, Clinton’s Arkansas law license was suspended for five years, not really what I’d consider a short time. He was also disbarred from practicing law before the U.S. Supreme Court and impeached by the House for perjury and obstruction of justice.
But perhaps I should have phrased my question differently. What I was wondering is if he’d stand any realistic chance at all of gaining confirmation given the notion I have that it would be unseemly (to say the least) to have someone with his spurious legal and moral history sitting on the land’s highest court, and especially so given the fact that he has been disbarred from appearing before it in the first place.
Before the Obame supporters get too ecstatic and the Hillary supporters decide to cut their wrists, here are the delegates won by the top 3 Dems in the Iowa caucus:
Obama: 16
Edwards: 15
Clinton: 14
2,200 delegates are needed to clinch the nomination.