Deciding whether to put this in IMHO or GD was hard. Who do you think would have the better chance of being elected President?
Hilary Clinton is a woman and is hated with a fervor that I sometimes find pretty irrational. Barack Obama is black. The way things are now, I believe this country would vote in a billy goat before it would have a woman or a black man as President. So let’s pretend that we’re in an alternate universe exactly like this one, except for the fact that it’s 2010 and these two can and are running against each other.
I think Obama in a cakewalk. He is held mostly in good regard while Clinton is hated on a personal level by many. Plus Barack is very light-skinned.
The quarter landed tails-- GD it is.
Well we elected a Hispanic in '06, so a black president is certainly possible. Of course Santos is most likely going to run for relection so it’d need to be on the Republican side.
Apparently in this alternative universe, the presidential elections are also held in different even-numbered years from the ones in our universe? Or are we imagining Obama and Clinton campaigning in 2010 for the 2012 election?
I’d give Obama a slight edge, just because HRC has such high negatives. But it depends on whom they are running against. Obama vs McCain is a loser for Obama.
I’ve said it elsewhere: America wants a President who they believe shares their values and who they believe has an inspirational vision of America’s future. America doesn’t believe HRClinton believes what she says and few on the Left or the Right or anywhere in between believe that she shares their values. Whatever her values really are. Obama is articulate. He is religious (a big plus for most of this country). He believes in America’s potential to be a land that leads by example more than force. Sure, there are a few who wouldn’t vote for him because his father was a Black African, but more who would love to have the chance to show that skin color is not an issue if we have other things we do identifiy with.
Hmmm, I guess I’m going to have to be the contrary voice here. In my opinion, if these two faced off against each other in a primary Hillary would win, and I also believe the vote wouldn’t be particularly close. People TALK a good game about inclusivity, equality, and color-blindness (yeah right), but even liberalism/progressivism has a limit, and that limit will be reached just before a Black person gets to within a hair’s breadth of becoming president of the US.
As long as it’s just a possibility for an Obama presidency I’m sure most, if not all liberal and progressive democrats would be all for it. His nomination would be lauded as a step in a new, better direction for the US; a tearing down of particularly disgusting walls, and an enlighted achievement for Americans. However, particularly if it’s felt Obama could actually win in the GE, mysteriously, mistakes would begin to occur at the campaign level and higher, support from influential sectors would wane, and voter apathy would be subtly encouraged. I wouldn’t even rule out a level of collusion between the democrats and republicans if it came down to it.
Yes, yes, Hillary’s hated, but Hillary’s not Black. I don’t care how you slice it, as unthreatening as Obama seems to his non-Black fans, and as articulate (sigh) as he’s noted for, his being Black STILL makes all the difference in the world.
I’d give the edge to Obama. There are a lot more people that hate Hillary for being Hillary than there are that would not give their vote to a black man. His election would signal to the world that the America that they hate is trying to change for the better. If I had my druthers, I’d take Gore or Edwards first but having Obama in the VP slot would be a huge plus for the ticket.
Hillary. She has name recognition beyond practically any other politician in the US (any publicity is ultimately good publicity, right?), and as the ‘Clinton years’ come to be viewed more rosily by Democrats and Republicans alike, I think some of that good feeling is rubbing off on Hillary. Obama may represent a bright future, but there’s a fear of the unknown that comes with that; Hillary increasingly represents an idealized past, and I think more Americans will vote for the latter.
I have pretty conservative ideals, and though I don’t know much of Barak (though everyting I’ve seen him on in tv has been good, except for one thing), I know I can’t stand HRC. In general, I don’t mind midwestern Democrats, just like I prefer (for the most part) midwestern Republicans.
All things being equal in terms of the candidate’s platforms, I think Obama would have the advantage. He doesn’t have Clinton’s reputation, for one thing. He has bipartisan respect, for another. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s a man, just as all presidents have been. I think Americans would have a harder time accepting a woman as president than they would a black man, because the latter doesn’t represent as great of a depature from status quo. Obama would still be called Mr. President, for example. His wife would be the First Lady. A “Ms. President” and a “First Man” are too unprecedented for all those traditionalists out there.
I also think sexism tends to be more overt than racism, so people may feel less inhibited to act on their biases against HRC. People may find it fairly easy to rationalize not electing a woman specifically because of her gender (because they have periods and hot flashes, right?), but that rationalization is harder to come up when race is involved. Obama is safe as long as he keeps a perfectly pristine record and is not involved in anything that could possibly to be construed as a strike against his character or his “non threatingness”. But if he even thinks about slipping in any way, that’s all the excuse some people need to act on their racial bias.
So while I think he’d win against HRC, I believe that victory would only occur if in the next years he managed to stay just active enough to remain relevant but not so active that something in his past could be seized upon and blown out of proportion by his opponents. He’d also have to distance himself from black people, truth be told. HRC would win in a heart beat if he was ever caught on film shaking hands with Jesse Jackson.
How much, in this era of simplistic sound bytes and attack ads, would a name like
“Obama” automatically mean an aversive vote for the Republican candidate, just
because it sounds like “Osama”? Yeah stupid rationale but I am sure some voters
in this country would have just that reaction (“Is he secretly in with the terrorists?”).
Does it matter that Obama’s middle name is [url=]Hussein?
(I know it shouldn’t but it does. My paternal great-grandfather and grandfather were both named Adolf. As you might guess, that family custom has fallen into disuse.)