I started this thread mainly to debate which of them would make a better POTUS. In the instant thread I want to debate a different question: Which of them, if nominated, would have the better chance of winning the WH in November, and why? I have no definite opinion either way. HRC is, for no good reason, the most broadly and bitterly hated woman in American politics; OTOH, there are still many Americans who would not vote for a black under any circumstances; on the third hand, most of those would probably vote Republican anyway; on the fourth hand, the same can be said of most (by no means all) Hillary-haters. Clinton has more solid experience under her belt, but Obama is more likeable and charismatic. Clinton is backed by the big money, but Obama seems to have better grassroots support. Etc.
Richard Parker made a great point in another thread:
I can’t add much to that.
It’s hard to say without knowing who they’re against. If it’s McCain, I think that Obama would do better. Against Clinton, McCain will pick up more independents and the “change” voters who see McCain as a “new” kind of Republican and Clinton as an establishment Democrat. That’s just my guess; I know there’s a new poll out daily with new results.
Against any other Republican, the question is moot as the Democrat will almost certainly win.
Out of all the candidates, republican and democratic, Obama is the most electable.
Obama is the only electable Democrat running. I’m not convinced that Hillary would able to beat even the lowest tier Republicans.
I, too, think turnout is key, but in how the turnout of the opposition would work. The religious right found their voice w/ Bush and enormous efforts went into turning out the vote. I think HRC has such a polarizing effect on certain segments, and the strength of that negativity does seem easily translatable to getting out the vote. With Obama, it isn’t just the ‘I won’t vote for a black’ issue, there’s the addition of the name crap. When the height of hilarity from a certain segment includes the punchline ‘Osama, Obama and Chelsea’s Momma’, we’re in trouble, folk.
I stopped listening to the local Rush wannabe disc jockey years ago, but he did seem to have his finger on the pulse of that segment. And that punchline is heard regularly there.
what that means to me, sadly, is that I fear both would have difficulty being elected at large.
Frank Rich wrote an Op-Ed piece for the New York Times that was published today, titled “The Billary Road to Republican Victory.”
Yeah, I know it’s just one guy’s opinion, but it’s one I’m finding more and more prevalent around the 'net. I predict that if Hillary gets the Dem nomination and John McCain the Rep nom, McCain will trounce her in the general. I know that doesn’t match up with what official polls are saying, but it’s my prediction nonetheless.
I have stated elsewhere that the only thing the Dems can do to lose my vote is to float Hillary as a candidate.
I have always considered myself to be just slightly right of center.
I’ve seen polls pointing in both directions over the last couple of weeks. LA Times did one, and the Washington Post?
I think we have to wait until the super-tuesday results are in to have a decent chance of answering this.
I am a Republican of the pretty far-right variety. I am crossing my fingers and hoping against hope that Hillary is the dem nominee, as I believe that any Republican with a chance of being nominated will beat her.
The only Republican I can see beating Obama is McCain, and that would take some doing.
And Clinton is just slightly right of Obama. What about her alienates you?
I support Obama, so it doesn’t really help my interests to argue that he’s more conservative than Hillary during the primary, but I really don’t get the basis of this statement.
On what policies is Obama more liberal than Hillary?
I don’t like the question of electability. I think very few of us are equipped to guess how people of opposing ideologies will vote. The only time primary voters should even try to consider electability is if they honestly have no preference between any of the leading candidates (which I suppose is quite possible, now that we’re down to two).
But, in the spirit of the OP, I’ll give it a shot. Don’t count Clinton out. No, she’s not as inspiring or charismatic as Obama, but she’s smart and scrappy. She may bore you like Kerry did, but anyone trying to swiftboat her will find themselves in a bamboo cage so fast that even their jailers won’t be sure how or why they got their. Metaphorically speaking of course.
To my mind, if Clinton can actually beat Obama, that puts to rest any question of her actual electability. And vice versa, of course.
Personally, I’d rather see Obama, but that has little to do with electability issues.
There’s this meme out there that there are voters who won’t vote for a black person, but I think their numbers are very few. We’ve seen in Iowa that Obama can carry a state with almost no significant African-American vote. And besides, if a voter won’t vote for a black man, how likely are they to vote for a woman anyway?
Hillary will unite the Republicans, drive up GOP turnout, and if she is running against McCain will lose most Independent support. Obama can win the independents and will not galvanize the Right like HRC would.
I agree with the others who have said that the Republicans have very little chance at winning in November, unless Hillary runs.
Both my wife and I like Obama better than any of the other major candidates of either party, despite his rather leftist economic and social tendencies. We pretty much reason that we’re going to be screwed no matter what, and Obama impresses us as the gentlest and most inspirational among them.
I agree with others that turn-out is key. Even more than mobilizing black voters, I think Obama has the potential to mobilize young voters. I know in terms of policy he’s similar to Clinton, but Obama offers the first chance in my adult life not to feel cynical about politics. Folks in their 20s have never known anything other than a Clinton or Bush presidency and all of the nastiness that comes with it. The chance to vote for something else is very appealing to a lot of my peers. If Clinton runs, I worry that a lot of young voters will just sit this one out.
I think Obama would fare better against Romney, because the two would compete on personality and charisma. Romney would look mean and petty while Obama would look like a uniting force for all that is good and all that is change.
But I think Clinton would fare better against McCain, because the two would compete on the issues. McCain probably has the best grasp on most of the issues, the best record of success, and the best skills in managing the WH. However, he’s aligned himself with Bush on some issues, and he’s “sort of a Republican but definitely the opposite of a Democrat”. This puts him on the unpopular side of several issues and makes him seem less of a change candidate than Clinton (or any Dem for that matter).
Caveat: I seem to have a blind side about McCain. While I wouldn’t want him as President because he’s a social conservative and a hawk, and wish he hadn’t helped Bush get elected or cozied up to Evangelicals in the last few years, I don’t have the kind of dismay about him that many people seem to.
This is how I feel about the matter.
Actually I think Bill Richardson is electable but has no hope of being nominated. John Edwards or Hillary would get destroyed by McCain. I think McCain v. Obama is won by a small yet comfortable margin by Obama (obviously include the standard caveat that we’re months away and things can and do rapidly change in politics.)
Any discussion of this must begin with acknowledging that HRC is more of a known quantity at this point (a situation of which we can expect Obama to take full advantage). That said, at least Obama has never been affiliated with the Ogdamned DLC wing of the party. And he’s more clearly committed than Clinton is to pulling out of Iraq.
Anecdotally, I’ve seen at least a hundred comments to blogs and news articles stating that the writers would rather vote for McCain than support Clinton if she gets the nomination. I haven’t seen any saying that they’d support McCain over Obama if it’s not Clinton.
I think Clinton would retain much of the party faithful but McCain would pick it up with independents. And you may have some Democratic cross-over to McCain but you won’t see any Republicans voting Clinton.