I’ve been really enthusiastic about Obama, but I’m losing my mojo and increasingly I believe McCain will win. Here’s why:
Hillary has to be the most negatively-viewed major candidate in recent times. Polls show people simply don’t believe her. Obama should be trouncing her. She’s repulsive, and he has the war chest. Why can’t he put her away?
I thought about why people would support Hillary even though they don’t like/trust her:
They genuinely prefer her policy positions over his.
They fondly remember the prosperity of the Clinton years.
They are casting a vote for feminism.
They are nervous about Obama for some reason (race, inexperience, religion, elitism, etc…)
Negative campaigning is effective at amplifying #4.
I believe #4 & 5 are the strongest explanation for why Obama isn’t trouncing Hillary.
Of course a lot of people fervently support Obama, but what we’ve lost sight of is: a lot of other people are continuing to show support for a completely untrustworthy & unlikeable candidate who has basically already lost.
Once the fear machine kicks into high gear (we ain’t seen nothing yet), all McCain has to do is be slightly more palatable than Hillary. Easy.
You’re looking at this the wrong way, Key Lime Guy. Obama is trouncing her by every conceivable measure. A 150+ pledged delegate lead is a trouncing. He’s also way ahead in popular vote totals, even if you include Florida and Michigan (where his name wasn’t even on the ballot!).
The only hope Hillary has, does not lie with the voters your outline above is concerned about, but with superdelegates. And even they aren’t rallying behind her anymore. Obama has, indeed, trounced her in added superdelegates since “Super Tuesday”, narrowing a once 130+ lead in superdelegates down to fewer than 25!
Yeah. Lots of people are repelled by Clinton, and a majority distrust her, but there are still large numbers of people who are attracted to her and trust her (or trust her enough, I guess).
I don’t think it’s that easy for McCain to be slightly more palatable than Clinton, given that McCain wants to continue many policies, especially military and international, that have helped make Bush very unpopular. If the Dem is concentrating on McCain instead of another Dem, I bet this will all favor Dems much more so than it has been able to yet.
Besides, McCain could always have an unrecoverably embarrassing Senior Moment in front of a news crew.
I think you’re overstating this somewhat. Plenty of people do support Hillary, some of them enthusiastically. Sure, Hillary rubs some people the wrong way, but you could say the same thing about her husband, or about George W., even before their respective (re-)elections. The people who find her “repulsive” may be shouting the loudest, but I don’t think they, alone, are enough to keep her from being elected.
Remember, Hillary was the favorite for a long time before Obama made his climb to the top of the Democratic list. I’m sure that there are a lot of people supporting Hillary because they supported her last year or supported her five years ago. I still like her … although I’m unhappy with how she’s run her campaign over the last few months.
Hillary and Obama are also very close policy-wise. Objectively there’s not much reason to prefer one over the other. So it all comes down to subjective concerns – Who do you trust? Who do you feel comfortable with?
The general election will be very different. There’s a big policy gap between Obama and McCain, and polls show more Americans like Obama’s positions on the major issues.
Exactly. It’s not like Edwards was trounced. He just decided he couldn’t win, and that he would rather get out. Clinton has decided not to. The expectation that he should be beating her worse than he currently is, is kinda amazing. Why should a one-term senator with little name recognition be beating a former first-lady (serving in the last successful democratic admin. in decades), senator, author, and lawyer who has the benefits of 30+ years of political connections and name-recognition? Where does this come from? Even the few of us that had heard of him before a couple years ago did not give him much of a chance to come even this far. Clinton has had, and still has (for the most part), every advantage a politician can ask for. Yet, she is basically fighting a losing battle.
I am also an Obama supporter, but I think most of the recent problems will pass with time. The negatives you mention were there before and will be there long after he is elected president. This is just another case of moving the goalposts. Flashback to 2004 and try to guess the odds that a Black guy with a foreign, Muslim-sounding name would be able to run an effective campaign. Even 9 months ago, it was a long-shot. Obama supporters shouldn’t be so drunk on recent success that we forget that this is going to be an uphill battle. It would be for anyone. There hasn’t been a president elected with a large majority in over 20 years. Even Bill Clinton needed a few things to go his way. Yes, McCain might win, but that is always a possibility when the country is split pretty evenly as far a electoral votes. That has nothing to do with Obama. If anything, recognizing that should convince you to do more to make sure he wins in November.
No I didn’t. I was responding to the part of the OP, specifically, that said, “Obama should be trouncing her. . . Why can’t he put her away?”
For Key Lime Guy to extrapolate that McCain only has to be slightly more palatable than Clinton to beat Obama, is a flawed conclusion because it’s based on the wrong assumption that Obama isn’t trouncing Hillary in spite of her negatives.
Except that they have pretty much the same religion, experience, and social class. Obama IS trouncing Hillary. With the machine she and her husband have behind them, she should have been able to knock him out in Iowa.
Anyone who underestimates Hillary Clinton is in for a severe thrashing.
Your guy Obama has done spectaculaly well. He’s pretty well got the nomination in hand. You’re surprised it wasn’t easier for him? Get a clue! Most folks would have gone down if they’d gone against her. She’s a tenacious campaigner.
I wouldn’t say Obama is “trouncing” Clinton. McCain’s performance against the other Republican candidates was a trouncing, Obama vs. Clinton is close enough that it will ultimately be decided by party officials. (Of course, a lot of this has to do with differences between the Democratic and Republican nomination processes rather than the merits of the particular candidates – whether states are winner-take-all, etc.)
I’d say the problem with Key Lime Guy’s reasoning is it assumes the general election will be as much decided on “likability” as the primary. As Pochacco observes above, in the general election, the differences between the candidates on actual substantive issues will be far greater. I think (or at least, I hope) that this should dominate the discussion over matters of likability.
Shayna, I am pro-Obama, not as pro as you*, but pro-Obama. By any typical measurement I have ever used in sports or politics, Obama is not trouncing Hillary and could still lose in November to McCain.
The sad thing is HRC would probably lose to McCain. I would vote for her, but I neither like nor trust her and her motives.
I don’t think McCain will hold up in the general. He’s getting free play right now (mostly because of Hillary’s stubborn streak). But when he goes one on one with Obama, he’ll be slaughtered. Obama’s Chicago School economists will whip McCain’s supply-siders’ asses. In debates, McCain will become confused and disoriented. And he will further anger right-wingers as he moves back toward center. Meanwhile, Clinton will grit her teeth and support Obama openly — maybe even enthusiastically — and encourage her people to support him. She will not have lost her ambitions, and she will need him to move forward.
Ok, now I am part of Shayna’s club and I would have no problem in mixed company saying that Obama is enjoying a healthy lead. Now I wouldn’t say Obama is completely trouncing HRC, but in political terms he’s doing quite well. I bet he is sweating a little, the polls close in 3 hours and he along with everyone else in Shayna’s club are watching very carefully. I’m remarkably calm today as opposed to early March.
You know that line Obama got the heat for, “Bitter people in small towns clinging to their guns and their religion.” Unfortunately it’s true.
McCain is going to hit them hard with the boogeyman and they’ll silently go to the polls for him. “Good old white man Uncle John. He’s like my grandfather. He’ll protect me. He’s wise beyond his years. I haven’t a clue about what he says I just feel in my gut that I can trust him.”
