An assessment of the Bush war plan for Iraq in the NYTimes ( http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/10/international/middleeast/10MILI.html ) brought up a hideous point I hadn’t even considered (aside from all the death and possibility of chemical and nuclear warfare): Saddam could very well ignite his oil wells, a la Kuwait.
What would be the effects? Kuwait was pretty much an ecological disaster, and a nightmare to cap. How much worse would it be in Iraq (considering they have larger oil reserves … though I don’t know if they have more wells or not)?
He did it in Kuwait and the experts thought it would take years to extinguish the fires. It only took months.
But what if he ignited his oil fields, and knowing he was going to lose big, ignited oil fields in neighboring countries – such as Kuwait and Saudia Arabia – and then contaminated those areas with a nuclear detonation?
The radiation would make it pretty nasty for anyone trying to get in and cap 'em, not to mention the technical difficulties of confining pressure to hundreds or thousangs of pipestems sheared off in such a catastrophic manner.
The most prolific fields in the world could burn untethered for years. Imagine a mass exodus of the population of several countries from an infernal wasteland to other countries ill equipped to accept them.
Isn’t it a bit silly to assume that Saddam will nuke his own oil fields? I mean, if he had nukes, he surely would have found some other target for them by now…
What will hapen if Saddam burns its oil fields?? All the members of Green Peace will look up simultaniously, get a far off look on thier faces and detect a great disruption of the Force. Saddam will insist to Bush that he is indeed his father. The Emperor Cheany will march his multinational fortune 500 executives in to do a damage assessment and IPO offering.He will of course rule from an undisclosed location. Fires will burn, clouds of smoke will billow then go away and be completly forgotten about, labor unions will charge outrageous fees to cap them, the fish will be prelubed and all will be well.
To be honest, I’ve always seen one of the dangers of the current policy of effecting a “regime change” in Iraq is that of Suddam deciding to do as much damage as possible to the oil fields of the Middle East (not just those of Iraq) in one last act of defiance.
Even if he only set fire to the oil fields in Iraq itself, surely the pollution from the fires would create problems for neighbouring countries.
Perhaps one of our resident geologists or engineers would enlighten us to the possibility of fires in the Iraq oil fields spreading to oil fields elsewhere in the Middle East.