Effects of a possible blue wave election 2020

Politics & Elections
1

The prospect of a second blue wave election following the 2018 mid terms has excited many democrats. Based on current polling, Trump is exerting drag on quite a few down-ballot races in many parts of the country, particularly in suburban areas. The 2020 election is particularly significant as the next round of congressional reapportionment follows the decennial census, and the states’ subsequent redistricting.

The GOP was able to profit greatly in redrawing maps following their victory in 2010, the effects of which are still being felt today. Do you foresee the Democratic party engaging in the same sort of bald gerrymandering power grab the GOP so successfully conducted? What states do you think are most likely to see the biggest changes resulting in long term electoral repercussions?

2

I think the GOP was able redraw maps following 2010 (i.e., gerrrymandering) by taking control of many state legislatures and gubernatorial seats. If Democrats are able to do the same thing, they can re-draw those districts to combat the GOP gerrymandering. But that requires the Democrats to be as viciously partisan as Republicans have been, and the Democratic Party just doesn’t seem to be willing to play dirty to the same level.

3

Here is 538s take on the way redistricting might play out.