2018 wasn’t really expected to be a good year for Dems, but maybe the horrors of a Trump presidency will help motivate Democratic voters? And it will be a lot harder for Trump to run on empty promises and lies in 2020 when he has 4 years of time governing for people to look at. Maybe his voters won’t care, though.
I’m trying to see if there’s any sliver of a silver lining here. As someone said in another thread, Bush’s win in 2004 helped give us Obama in 2008.
That’s all I’m asking for in the next election cycle; judge Trump on how things actually turn out, not on how great he can convince you they will be. Believe me.
My fingers are crossed for 2020. The winners then (at the state level) will be the ones who draw the districts based on the next census. And I don’t condone gerrymandering, I’d just like them to get rid of the gerrymandering that’s already in place.
I’ll go on record already as saying Trump will be two-term (unfortunately). Liberal delusion knows no bounds, as people who were horribly wrong in their predictions this time will continue to confidently issue wrong predictions again.
2018 is a terrible Senate map for Democrats, plus you can never rely on Democrats to show up for midterms, but I can guarantee that 2018 won’t be as good for Republicans as it would have been had Clinton been elected.
2020, the Democrats have a much better chance than they would have if Clinton had won, and since 2020 is a census election with the right to redraw Congressional districts, losing this race might actually have been the best thing to happen to the party. One cautionary note on the redistricting though: a large portion of offices that will actually have control over that process are elected in 2018, so if Democrats want to make a serious push to redistrict, they have to start getting their people to the polls for that midterm.
I don’t think he’ll last that long (physically). And the predictions for an election where the losing Democrat may win the popular vote were thus not “horribly wrong.”
Once his current supporters (well, some of them) wake up to the shit that he’ll be shoveling and note that nothing he’s doing will actually materially affect their lives, they’ll be sorely pissed. I predict by 2020 his job approval rating will be in the 20’s.
I’ll take that action. My best guess is a very bored, agitated President Trump decides that he’s proven his point and declines to run in 2020.
2018 may be too soon for a Dem comeback, but perhaps 2020 will be a better opportunity, given the now-stated Republican agenda (according to McConnell) in the NYT today:
and
This is basically the ‘free market’ model that has the wealthy licking their lips in anticipation of billions of dollars flowing out of your pockets and into theirs. The Tax Policy Center says this idea will create a $6.2 trillion deficit for the government. In other words, by 2020, people are going to be more than ready to dump these fuckers when our economy once again collapses from failed conservative policies.
I suspect plenty of grass-roots lefty organizing will start, well, now. It felt like once Obama got elected, and then re-elected, the organized left dissipated. This will give them something to re-organize around.
This model can work just fine if they don’t blow up the deficit. If they do blow up the deficit like they usually do, yeah, bye bye in 2020. But if they finally figure it out and limit their ambitions to what they can pay for, this agenda might actually work out well, at least in the aggregate. Sure, there are always winners and losers when you cut programs and deregulate, but if you have good economic growth(and not the borrowed kind) the voters will reward that.
It never has worked.
It worked great under Clinton/Gingrich/Dole in the 90s and arguably it’s worked pretty well during the last six years of the Obama administration. The challenge for Republicans is that when they get total control they start prioritizing fiscal responsibility lower.
The last time Republicans were fiscally responsible with total control was the 1950s, and before that, the 1920s.
The times you cite were not under the influence of the policies Chefguy was talking about. You’re cherry picking a subset of policies. Deregulation and lower taxes on the rich and on corporations tank our economy. Obama did not implement such policies.