I’ve been reading about Egyptian society and religion and what roles it plays in shaping it, how the government ignores it and appeases Islamists in order for them to stay quiet. But my question is how much longer will the average Egyptian put up with constant corruption, inefficiency, bad economy, bad opportunities, and to lesser extents, peace with Israel and support of the Government from the United States?
Considering the slogans ‘Islam is the Solution’ and the ability of the Muslim Brotherhood to invoke massive support on a grassroots level, how long is it before Egypt could become the Sunni version of Iran? And what would the consequences be if such a thing were to happen?
Michael Tottens blog, he’s been to Egypt and spoken to some bloggers who were for the liberalisation of their society and are alarmed (as he is) of the Islamization process which is taking place.
I wouldn’t put too much weight on what you have been reading. The government seems to control these sentiments well (as you probably know, when you see people demonstrating in Egypt it’s government-approved, or even staged). From what I’ve been reading (granted, not that much) there’s some unrest in poor city areas and a little in the south.
But there’s a process taking place now for change of leadership. And it appears that the progressive Western-oriented wing will come out on top. So currently change from within seems more likely - but fewer restrictions will also make it easier for the Islamists.
That doesn’t mean anything, in fact, it only will provide ammunition for the opposition.
Which the majority of the Urban population comes from. Unrest isn’t just the only factor in this, the change of Society from a secularist leaning authoritarian government to an Islamist orientated one will have profound changes in the way the country is governed.
Cite? Western orientated leadership needs a support base, and from where I’m looking, Egyptian society which is pro Western is narrow or in the low percentages. So those pro Western leaders are going to need to accomodate Islamists with policies or order another bowt of repression.
Which means Islamists will be in a position where they cannot be removed, and can also gain hold on the levers of Government to cement their position.
Muslim groups in Egypt do not have the same grassroot support as in other Arab countries. Neither are they as fundementalistic as we would expect based on our experience with Islamic movements elsewhere. The largest group, Muslim Brotherhood, has renounced violence and has joined with secular opposition groups. I’ve seen the occasional report of uproar in some poor city areas followed by descriptions of police violence. But it has more to do with poverty and general opposition to the regime than religious motives. Here’s a primer, sort of (make sure to read the whole thing if you start reading): http://www.atimes.com/front/CJ31Aa01.html
Two factions have, silently, been questing to fill Mubarak’s position when he eventually steps down (or dies). The first one is the military/intelligence apparatus, lead by a general (forgot his name, but he’s well-known), the other is the group of Mubarak’s son Gamal, a pro-Western banker said to be in favor of change (though not necessarily democracy). Both of them are held in high regard by Mubarak, but recent events seems to position Gamal as the future head of state. I don’t have the cite I really wanted to give you, but here’s a little background: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5529166/
Quite true. But I fear a lot more for Saudi Arabia than I do for Egypt.
I also feel that The House of Saudi is not in very good shape, nor Egypt.
Plus that the Israel/Palestinian question has been locked.
And that there will be a new war against Iran.
So, as commenting on all this together, would just derail the OP, should we start a new thread about “The war with Iran?” or “Will ME burn within 2 years?”
My take is “yes” to both questions, but I did not find through “search” any thread suitable…