That was good! 
Someone should open a thread titled: Who’s the best VP choice for Kerry.
Well, Edwards has his chance now to prove whatever he wanted to prove. I am not saying that he will do anything, but all Edwards supporters have said that if he is going to have a chance he needs to be in a two-man race. Clark is leaving now, so he gets what he wants. He should at least hang around till the next debate and then maybe super tuesday. I’d go to Nevada if I were him depending on if its possible. If he could pick out another win he may get a little comeback mo. But the fat lady is certainly warming up.
He’s probably already booked solid in Wisconsin until Tuesday. Although it’s not a bad idea, since Kerry’s got a huge lead in Wisconsin anyway.
Thanks!
Thanks for pointing that out! I was out of town from 1/30 to 2/1, when it had been in play before.
And in that thread, they’d been discussing which Southern states the Dems might stand a chance in, so I started a thread about that.
My points, in sum:
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The Democratic party is capable of winning Southern states in a presidential election, if they nominate the right guy. (See: Clinton, Bill.)
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John Kerry is not the right guy.
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John Kerry said that “[e]veryone always makes the mistake of looking South,” which gives a pretty clear indication that he is ceding the South. Even if he were not ceding the South, I do not believe he is capable of winning there.
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It is a huge mistake for the Democratic Party to write off the South, as I’ve explained ad nauseum in the Kerry thread. You can theoretically win the presidency without taking a Southern state, but in practice, it’s damn hard. Furthermore, writing off the region frees the Republicans to focus their energies (and money) on Northern and Western swing states. To use a military metaphor, Democrats have to take the battle to the enemy in the South, and not retreat to the north side of the Mason-Dixon line.
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Dean (though he did it clumsily) at least tried to embrace the Southern working class, which ought to be a natural constituency of the Democrats. (I didn’t hold his Confederate flag remark against him. In fact, the only “outrage” I heard over the remark was coming from Republicans, who wouldn’t have voted for him anyway.) Dean, unlike Kerry, has a moderate record which would have allowed him to run to the center after the primaries.
Kerry’s wins in TN and VA say nothing about his ability to win there in the fall. Democratic primary voters are the most liberal subset of Southerners. He convinced roughly half of them in VA to vote for him. (Given his record, it was presumably the most liberal half.) Do you really think that means he’ll draw critical swing voters in the South come November?
You’ve *still * provided exactly zero factual, supportable basis for this repeated assertion that Kerry is indeed planning to cede the South, or anywhere else.
“Do you really think that means he’ll draw critical swing voters in the South come November?” you ask. Well, that’s what the VA/TN results do seem to imply, right? You have no *fact-derived * reason to think the opposite. You have no better idea to offer the Dems at this point other than what you can *reasonably * expect them to *be * doing, either. See how this “argument” of yours looks?
All Kerry has to do is get his rich, foreign born wife* to give Nader a few mil to stay out of the race, and he should be able to take Florida. Just kidding about the methodology, but the Pubs have to be extremely nervous that Nader will sit this election out. Maybe they’ll start bashing Kerry’s environnmental record in order to goad Nader’s supporters to get him to run.
*how’s that for a glimpse of gratuitous campaign slurs we may soon be seeing
No third candidate is going to be a factor this time, as we’ve discussed here before on Nader/Green threads. Anybody who thinks Bush should go is going to vote Kerry, and campaign hard for him too. Bush’s claim to be a “uniter” has turned out to be true in a way.
You’re right about the upcoming rich-bitch slurs against the Missus, of course. But it won’t matter once the RNC rehires the guys who did the Mel Carnahan and Paul Wellstone jobs for them. How’s that for a conspiracy theory, huh?
Never underestimate what the extremes of the political spectrum will do.
Perhaps Kerry will do an end run and offer Nader a cabinate position-- 3rd assistant junior Undersecretary of the Interior.
Facts?! You want facts?! Sir, I traffic only in unsupported opinions!
But since you insist, I shall depart from my usual pattern. Here are your facts:
Like I said, Kerry is winning the primaries by winning over liberal voters. He seems to have very little appeal to swing voters.
If you want to win swing voters in November, Edwards is the man.
I don’t underestimate them, I don’t even see them. What noises have you been hearing about Nader or anyone else? What popular groundswell do you see? 'Tain’t there this time. Might as well wonder what job Bush would offer Ross Perot for *his * support, huh?
Don’t underestimate Nader’s smarts. I’ll be very surprised if he runs again, but I won’t be surprised to hear him keep hinting about it as long as he can. He knows that the Dems are terrified of a repeat of 2000, and that they’ll do a certain amount to appease him. As long as he keeps making noises about it, he can exert a modest pressure on the Dems not to run too far to the right.
Blackmail? Sure. But that’s politics.
Daniel
So, what do we have? Kerry ran ahead of Edwards among TN/VA liberals and moderates, but even with him among conservatives. To me, that ‘starkly’ says Edwards wouldn’t be as good a candidate in the South as Kerry would be.
I agree. Unless it can be shown that Edwards (or anyone else) gets a larger absolute number of moderate/independent votes, then the fact that he gets a relatively larger number is meaningless.
Well, if Kerry gets the nomination I can only say “Watch and learn.”
Nothing will solidify the South like an old-line liberal.
You’ve said that PLENTY of times already.
Amen! spoke, unless you’re really enjoying the role of board curmudgeon, this is getting a little tired.
Daniel
The mind boggles at the thought of anyone curmudgeonly enough to be recognized as a curmudgeon among Dopers. It’s like identifying someone as a conservative among Freepers.
:mad: Bah! In my day, you woulda been horsewhipped for such impertinence!
Daniel
SInce this is a prediction thread, I’ll throw mine out first and then get to my reasons why.
GWB will defeat Kerry. He will have over 300 electoral votes in doing so.
Here’s why. And keep in mind the following is opinion based on observation.
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A non-southern, non-moderate democrat cannot get elected president. The political dynamics of the country simply will not allow it. See Clinton and Carter and compare them to McGovern, Mondale and Dukakis.
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In our two-party system, about a third of the electorate will vote for the Democrat regardless of who it is. Another third will vote for the Republican. Who are the remaining third? You guessed it. The moderates. They are the ones who will vote thier pocketbook and not thier ideology. Unless the economy takes a nosedive (and current trends show this not to be the case) Bush will be re-elected. I know many of you can’t stand him, but remember this…the further left or right you are, the more of a minority opinion you become. Your passion simply will not translate to numbers in the voting booth.