Rank the candidates in terms of their chances for winning the Dem nomination and of beating Bush if they win:
For the nomination:
Kerry
Gephardt
Dean
Edwards
5 Lieberman
Graham
For the general:
1.Kerry
2.Edwards
3.Dean
4 Gephardt
5 Graham
6 Lieberman
I am ignoring the three weaker candidates but you can include them if you want.
In both polls I think the top three are serious contenders.
In the primary I think that Kerry and Gephardt are quite close and Dean some way behind.
In the general my guess is that Kerry would beat Bush (especially if he choose his VP wisely). Edwards and Dean would be a toss-up and the other three would lose.
Of course let me add the usual caveat that there is a long way to go and that a lot can happen in the next year and a half. These are just rough guesses.
Are we limited to these 6? I think that is rather shallow, since none of these 6 can get enough support to win the nomination on the first ballot.
I think if the economy does not improve, Hillary will enter the race late(like Robert Kennedy did in late in the 1968 campaign) and hillary will take the nomination, and then win the presidency.
If the economy does not improve, any democrat will win in November(esp since no president who did not win the popular vote ever won re-election), and also because no republican has recieved more votes than a democrat since 1988, 15 years ago.
If the economy does not improve, Hillary will not want to see another democrat get in, putting off her presidency until 2012.
I dont think any of these 6 candidates will get enogh votes to win on the first ballot at the democrat convention, so the democrat candidate will be picked by party bosses, who will go with Hillary who has the most favors due.
“Are we limited to these 6?”
No of course not. You can discuss any candidate you think is likely to enter the race. Though I believe Hillary has more or less ruled out running in 2004. I don’t see her winning the general either.
As for none of the Democrats winning a majority of delegates I think that several of them are going to drop out after the initial races so I don’t think the winner will have a problem getting a majority well before the convention.
The first three are very close, almost interchangeable, as is Edwards and Lieberman. Those two are hardly long shots either. All bets are off.
General:
No idea. Very hard to tell.
Clinton will not enter the race. 99, 9 % certainty. If she did, she would be less likely than any of the six to get the nom, except Graham. It’s too late.
I’d put Kerry, Dean, and Edwards in the top three for the primary, but I couldn’t say who has a better chance. In a pinch, I’d say Kerry, though I couldn’t give you a firm reason. The other three I don’t see as having much of a chance - particularly Gephardt after his “I’ll overrule the Supreme Court if I don’t like what they say” comment.
As to which candidate would fare better against Bush, I think they’d all do about equally. They all pretty much sound identical, anyway - nothing but different shades of the “Bush lied about the war and destroyed our beautiful economy,” ad nauseum. While they may have nuanced and widely differing sets of principles and ideas, the mainstream likely isn’t going to hear much of it.
Jeff
Minty,
Our rankings are pretty similar. The biggest difference is that you seem to rank Lieberman higher in the general which isn’t a big deal because I think Gephardt,Graham and Lieberman are roughly the same. I think all three lack the personality and speaking skills for the top spot in a Presidential campaign but I gave the other two an edge because they come from swing regions (Mid-west and South) and Lieberman doesn’t.
In my mind, only the top 2 in both lists have any serious chance of winning, barring some dramatic change (and we’re a long way from Super Tuesday and Nov. 2, 2004). The bottom four are virtually interchangeable in the probable futility of their efforts.
Edwards doesn’t seem to be able to maintain any momentum, but I ranked him above Kerry because he is still young and probably much more willing to change while Kerry is pretty established and probably wont change much. Gephardt I think will gradually lose his base and go the way Lieberman is going now.
Dean I ranked first because he seems to be the only candidate that people really like. Others get lots of support because they seem more electable, but Dean seems to be able to get people to support him regardless of his actual issues. As his supporters go you get ultra left people who would be with Kucinich on the issues to even a few Republicans. Edwards could possibly do the same.
Kucinich is gonna beat all of those lames. He is the only presidential candidate to have the guts to take on the pentagon, the center of all evil in the world. Hopefully, Kucinich wont get wellstoned before he has a chance to lead the american people to freedom.
He says the right things so far, like wanting to save american jobs and factories, ending NAFTA immediately(not fixing it, but ending it now) and helping the small private farmers and ranchers against the big corporate factory farms. If he doesnt make any major mistakes like advocating gun control, joining the nazi party, or for ending social security, then he could be winning some primaries.
I pray day and night that Dean gets the nomination (well, actually I pray that Sharpton gets the nomination, but even God isn’t powerful enough to pull that one off). He’s like McGovern: The Sequel.
I fear Edwards the most. He’s the only one that hasn’t become a caricature of himself.
Yeah I knew about your thread; in fact I posted in it myself but it was more of a general discussion whereas I wanted a ranking of the candidates. But thanks for linking it.
I think all the trial lawyer money that he got hurt him more than it helped him. He isn’t so good at portraying himself as fighting for the working man, but I think he has done a good job of showing integrity on his positions. He has potential.
As far as the idea that Dean is the next Mcgovern I hope Republicans continue to tell themselves that. Though it doesn’t look like that as now they seem to be going after him rather than Kerry.
