I think Josh Marshall’s right about the first one: it’s a little late in the day for saying, “things are a mess because of Clinton and 9/11.” The last two are better.
I think Kerry’s “Keep Our Word” commercial is devastatingly good.
I’d go better than that - a one in *two * chance of a Kerry landslide (which in the US means about 53% +), with the Senate going Democratic. The House may be out of play for a while, after DeLay’s redistricting scheme.