Election 2004 Predictions

Great Debates
141

Merkwurdegliebe,

Much much worse is it going to get? Saddam’s not going to win. The problem is that the post-war period just drags on, with a couple of American soldiers dying daily.

He’s already dealt with that. Read his position on it.

Makes no sense. How is he going to draw more fire for voting for the war than Bush has for STARTING it?

Again, he’s dealt with this. His criticism is that Bush failed to do what the Congressional resolution asked- get international support, try diplomacy first, and act only if it was really necessary. And he says that Bush has lost the peace.

Cite?

142

I’ll have you know I’m just playing devil’s advocate to explain Kerry’s vunerabilities. I am not saying there is any credence to these arguments. I don’t have to answer these questions because the media doesn’t have to either. Nobody is going to go to the media and ask “cite” because they don’t give a shit. Mark my words, Kerry will get Gored. Look in this GD it isn’t about me proving that Kerry is unfit for being a president. Its about the media screwing Kerry over about his record supporting no Child left Behind, Iraq II while he criticizes it, not supporting Iraq I.

I would like to see Kerry as Prez. I am not trying to down him. But this is what the media will do. They have no need for fact as long as it is “factesque”

143

The media hasn’t done this so far, and it sounds like you’re presupposing they’ll have some grudge or ax to grind. Part of Gore’s problem was that he handled himself badly and ended up with the press not liking him. I don’t think that’s the case with Kerry.

Re: “Cite?” I was asking what in his record will be attacked as hypocritical since you said he had a history of it.

The only purpose I’ve seen so far in predicting the media’s actions is to justify one’s own pessimism. The media might do a lot of things. If you’re suggesting they make things up entirely, then they could say Kerry fought for the VietCong. Whatever. Both candidates will make all kinds of charges, and they’ll both have ample opportunity to respond.

Last week, we heard they’d ‘Gore’ Dean. Now it’s Kerry, and if Edwards keeps going it’ll be him. So what? They’ll be able to defend themselves.

144

Hmm… I’m uncomfortable with predictions lately. I predicted Dean would win Iowa comfortably, with Kerry in a respectable second. I then predicted Kerry would win New Hampshire and that Dean would take a close second. While Dean was second, it certainly wasn’t close, so I’m not counting that. When the presidential election comes around, I’m usually better at calling the states. But this was rough, and I’m doubting myself.

That said, let’s review the facts: Kerry’s star is rising; Edwards is looking comfortable; and Dean’s campaign has just been reshuffled today, and is effectively broke. Clark seems to be having trouble catching fire, and Lieberman’s a wet match.

So here goes:

Arizona—Kerry, Clark, Edwards
Delaware—Kerry, Dean, Edwards
Missouri—Kerry, Edwards, Clark
New Mexico—Dean, Kerry, Clark
North Dakota—Clark, Kerry, Edwards
Oklahoma—Kerry, Clark, Dean
South Carolina—Edwards, Kerry, Sharpton

Michigan—Kerry, Dean, Edwards
Washington—Kerry, Dean, Edwards

I predict that February 3 will not be a good day for Dean. He’s not running advertising anymore, hoping to save up his cash to make an impression in Michigan and Washington and beyond. I don’t see it working, but who knows? His new campaign manager, Roy Neel, is no novice to this business, so he might be able to get things rolling along. It just looks like the Dean campaign’s in too much trouble to save itself.

It remains to be seen who’s got the right stuff to make it past February 3. I think Clark’s not going to have a great day, himself, and neither is Lieberman. Clark will stick around through at least part of February but likely won’t bother with Super Tuesday, while Lieberman… well, he’ll either come to his senses or he won’t. Either way, it’s going to become clear to enough voters that there’s no point in even considering the guy—as if this hasn’t happened already. Sharpton and Kucinich want to hang on until the convention.

Will Edwards pull ahead? Maybe. I certainly don’t see him coming apart in the campaign. Whether he can catch Kerry is another issue. I suspect not, but time will tell.

And yes, I really do mean that about Sharpton coming in third in South Carolina. He’s got some pretty strong support there, and while I don’t see him winning the state by any stretch, I do see him doing well enough to come in third or fourth. I’m saying third.

145

Chance could well be right. NPR’s Morning Edition this morning commented that Dean was not expecting to win ANY state tomorrow.

Any last minute predictions, folks? Anything?

146

Hm. Looking more likely. Apparently, I put more thought into this than I thought I had. Again, Dean’s not going to win anything, but he’s going to place just about everywhere.

147

Oh, yes. Leiberman is looking more and more delusional, day by day. Thirteen to twelve to nine percent is still not a three way tie for third.

And today, he’s quoted as stating he has the most national support.

He’ll still quit after Super Tuesday, but… I’m expecting entertainment.

Kunich and Sharpton are already irrelevant, but… I don’t know if they’ll quit, especially not Sharpton. He’s living off his supporters, and they’re putting out for him.

Clark is Dead Man Walking. Heard less about him than I have about Leiberman. He was set up to be the fake Dark Horse by the Hillary side, and then a real Dark Horse showed up, and then Kerry faked inside and to the lead. Clark is way off to the sidelines now.

148

Well, I was calling New Mexico for Dean, but I’m not so sure any more. My thinking now is that Kerry’s more likely to take New Mexico (with Dean in second) and North Dakota (with Clark in second.) Kerry will be a close second in South Carolina, and may well win the state (though not by very much.) If Kerry runs the table Tuesday, then Edwards will know it’s over. In fact, it strikes me as ridiculous that Edwards would count a close win in South Carolina as a clear victory. It seems to me that that has more to do with the papers needing a little drama to write about. A close win in South Carolina will not make Edwards look viable; a close loss in South Carolina will make Kerry look viable.

Clark, I think, would make a fine governor for Arkansas in a couple of years. And Dean? Well, he could do Tommy Thompson’s job… but I’m making predictions that stretch a tad beyond February 3, and that’d be another thread entirely…

149

I’m really coming in at the end of this one! Busy at the office Thursday, out of town Friday through Sunday, then in a class most of the day today. Any speculating I’d be doing at this point would be just parrotting the consensus of the polls I’ve seen, which means tomorrow I expect Kerry to win pretty much everywhere except SC and possibly OK; I expect Edwards and Clark to rack up a lot of second-through-fourth finishes, with Edwards winning SC and one of them possibly winning OK; I expect Dean to rack up a lot of third and fourth place finishes, with maybe a second somewhere, and Lieberman to finish fifth a lot, although he could finish as high as second in DE. That’s pretty vague, but that’s all I’m gonna do tonight.

150

A lot can and will happen between now and November. But the latest CNN poll shows Kerry beating Bush by 53-46%.

The poll, with a 4% margin of error, shows Edwards and Clark each in a statistical dead heat with Bush, while Bush beats Dean, 52-45%.

Realistically, Bush still has to be the favorite in this race. But the odds are shrinking.

151

$25,000 and a bottle of Scotch…

Here I come!

152

I won’t particularly make any predictions, but I suppose that today we’ll see Edwards win SC and OK. I can’t be certain but it appears to be swinging his way at the last minute. If Edwards manages to pull out a big one in SC and OK then I think it takes Kerry down a notch or two and Clark as well. It should be said by now that Dean is probably out of the race at this point.

153

Two sites of opposite political leanings have posted the following early exit poll results:

AZ Kerry 46, Clark 24, Dean 13.
MO Kerry 52, Edwards 23, Dean 10
SC Edwards 44, Kerry 30, Sharpton 10
OK Edwards 31, Kerry 29, Clark 28
DE Kerry 47, Dean 14, Lieberman 11, Edwards 11

Since these were up on the National Review site by 1:46pm EST, with plenty of voting time left (hell, with the voting day only a few hours old in AZ), it’ll be interesting to see whether they hold up.

In addition to reporting the exit poll data, the second link reminds us that the exit polls in NH made the Kerry-Dean race there look much closer than it ultimately turned out to be.

154

Interesting. And surprising to me that Edwards may have a lead in Oklahoma.

I have a question for those more familiar than I with the nomination process:

Suppose Kerry sweeps the Northern and Western states, and Edwards sweeps the Southern states. Edwards turns in some solid second-place finishes in Kerry states and vice-versa. (All of which is firmly within the realm of possibility, IMO.) Meanwhile, Dean and Clark are hanging onto a few delegates earned in second-place finishes, plus some shaky commitments from super-delegates.

Where does that leave us? Would Kerry have enough delegates for nomination? Would we see a brokered convention? Would Terry McAuliffe’s head explode? Could Edwards combine forces with Dean and/or Clark to take the nomination away from Kerry? Help me game this one out.

155

God, it’ll be cool if Edwards takes two states. I think that boy could change American politics, could make people proud of their government again.

For a little while, at least, he could restore honor and dignity to the White House.

Daniel

156

Here’s a summary of the delegate accumulation process.

Byzantine. And I shan’t do all the math involved in answering my own question. Too many variables.

157

Arizona Kerry Dean Edwards
AZ Kerry 46, Clark 24, Dean 13.

Missouri Kerry Edwards Dean
MO Kerry 52, Edwards 23, Dean 10

South Carolina Edwards Kerry Dean
SC Edwards 44, Kerry 30, Sharpton 10

Oklahoma Kerry Edwards Dean
OK Edwards 31, Kerry 29, Clark 28

Delaware Kerry Dean Edwards
DE Kerry 47, Dean 14, Lieberman 11, Edwards 11

The first are my predictions, the second are the current polls. Clearly, I didn’t expect Dean to run out of money. Oklahoma was where Clark had to win. He’s not winning. Still, not bad, I got Missouri, and some of the rest of all the states.

Early prediction: Edwards now has mojo. Swap him and Dean in my earlier predictions for anything after today, as I think I said earlier. Sharpton, even in SC, is polling worse than Jesse Jackson ever did. He’s not even going to be a power broker at the convention.

158

I was just about to pose a similar question. That IS a good question and the whole race could come down to the 800 or so super-delegates. It would NOT be a brokered convention, I believe. A brokered convention is when after superdelegates decided who they support (which they have until the last minute to do so) nobody has a majority of votes. I suspect that either Kerry or Edwards would get the nomination with the remaining superdelegates (between 600 and 500 would be a wild guess). If it comes down to this I predict an Edwards win. If Edwards wins OK (and SC which is pretty certain now), then he’ll have won the expectations game and Kerry will have broken even. If Edwards continued to surge he would have solved the “electability problem” himself (considering the polls recently showing him beating Bush) and he would probably be the wisest choice for unaligned (and hell even Dean pledged Superdelegates bc he has a lot). Kerry or Edwards? who would you want? The answer is obvious to me, but I think that wise party strategists would rather have Edwards at the top of the ticket than Kerry if he had shown the ability to sweep a few states. Plus you gotta count the Dean supporters. People realize now that Dean can’t win, and I would imagine that most Dean supporters would go to Edwards rather than Kerry.

159

It would be interesting to know the second choices of those who voted for Clark, Dean, Sharpton and Lieberman. In other words, would their votes have gone to Edwards or Kerry had their candidates not been in the race. It probably would make a difference in “what the numbers say” in a couple of the close states.

160

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/dates/02/03/

Let’s watch those numbers, folks!