1000% better than any MAGA fan of trump.
Any estimates on the odds of a two-Democrat general?
Pretty much zilch.
Agreed, Trump’s Republican is now the front-runner, and short of another scandal or something, I don’t see 2 Dems pushing ahead of him.
In the general, I’m sure the Dem will win, again barring another scandal (it feels weird to have to include that proviso in every election prediction).
It could happen if a lot of the current Democratic candidates realize that they are also-rans and drop out. California adopted the current format to make a general with two Democrats possible. Swalwell got his start running against Pete Stark, another Democrat. Stark had been in Congress for forty years and had outlived his time.
One problem is that the ballots are printed. There are like 60 names on it and over 20 by my quick count are Democrats including Swalwell who may still get a lot of votes. It’s a mess.
The election is coming up ridiculously fast and I’ve still barely heard from any of the candidates. Cancelling that debate was criminal.
We are finally getting a debate next week, this time with both Democrats and Republicans. Six candidates qualified.
Well, assuming the debate actually happens this time.
Some late polling looks very good for Becerra.
One candidate has dropped out:
Rats. I like her. Porter for me now, I think.
Yes, it looks like Steyer and Becerra benefited most (so far) from Swalwell dropping out, but Porter is back on the up side and is still ahead of Becerra.
Frankly, I don’t remember Becerra at all as California AG, maybe he didn’t appear as frequently on the stump as Bonta has done since him. I would vote for him over Steyer (not a high bar, but it would be nice to have a choice).
I know Mahan is trailing, but is there anyone from the San Jose area reading this who has an opinion about Mahan? I guess he doesn’t have much of a chance, but I’m curious.
I know it’s only one data point, but as far as the PredictIt model goes, it shows Becerra coming on strong.
Our Revolution, a group founded by Bernie Sanders and explicitly anti-billionaire endorsed Tom Steyer on Monday.
They say his positions on ICE, the environment, single-payer healthcare, taxing extreme wealth, etc. are more in line with their positions than any other candidate. While he is wealthy they say they approve of how he has used it.
While unstated my guess is they are realize how important it is for the Ds to unite around the strongest candidate or run the risk of getting 2 Rs in the general election.
Not sure if this was already posted, but here’s the governor candidate statements in the official voter guide.
I can live with Steyer.
I agree his policy positions are great. What troubles me is what he says he is going to do to implement them, many of which seem to be quite a ways outside the purview of the governor. He can lead and influence, he can push, he can bargain, but there are many things he has promised which he can’t himself force into existence, and surely he must know that. I would prefer a governor whose campaign promises had been moderate in scope (not politically moderate) but achievable, and who then achieves at least some of them.
I get that the position is one of leadership, and that leadership can affect the outcome. But he is saying “I will do (these things).” Yes, I can live with Steyer, assuming he’s not an outright liar about his goals and intentions, but I’m sick of this kind of campaigning. And frankly I’m sick of billionaires of pretty much every stripe, but most of all the ones who think they should be in charge of things outside of their business.
eta: I also think it is quite likely that someone as pushy and self-satisfied as he is does not know how to negotiate with legislators to get what he wants, generating resentful push-back rather than cooperation.
Note, as I mentioned up-thread, that not all the candidates appear in that list. They had to agree to a campaign spending limit and also to purchase the space in the voter’s guide. Becerra is not in there, neither is Steyer nor Mahan.
Did anyone watch the debate? Did anyone have their views changed, or strengthened?
I saw parts of it. Full disclosure, my wife was very involved with Katie’s initial campaign in 2018 and they have become friends, but we were disappointed in her leaving our district to try to be a Senator, and I have some misgivings about her executive abilities. We went to see Swalwell speak and were impressed, but that was before his “lower half problem” became clear.
So I was thinking Becerra as he seemed to have good executive experience, but last night cooled that - he came across as just another word-salad politician and I was disappointed. I didn’t watch enough to assess Mahan.
In the end, I will vote D, provided we are not stupid enough to not have at least one on the Nov. ballot.
I’m glad we finally got to see our candidates, but I have to say I wasn’t all that enthused about any of them. Mahan rose in my estimation, but Steyer probably remains my top pick for now.