In this election (TN-7th) the results were as follows
GOP: 97k votes
Dem: 81k votes
But compare it to 2022 or 2024
2022
GOP: 108k votes
Dem: 69k votes
2024
GOP: 192k votes
Dem: 123k votes
Dem turnout in this special election was better than midterm turnout in 2022. Thats a good sign.
Compared to 2024, about 69% of democrats turned out and 50% of republicans turned out for this special election.
The problem is that the turnout gap will shrink in the 2026 midterms. Dem turnout will be higher than GOP turnout, but the gap between the 2 parties will be smaller.
A 13-point swing next year, if my calculations are correct, would be a massive blowout in favor of the Dems. Dems could end up with 280 seats. Likewise, it would move Lean-R Senate races well into blue territory.
Now I’m not holding my breath cuz a year is a long time, candidate quality makes a huge difference race-to-race, and not every district/state is going to have the same results as TN-7, but…I’d rather be in the Democrats position right now, especially with Trump running the economy into the dump, potential war crimes being committed by the administration, Republican leadership continuing to defend an increasingly-unpopular president with obvious mental deficiencies, Congress about to let ACA subsidies expire and the Republican Party seemingly at war with itself/MAGA divided, and the Epstein Files yet to drop.
The only real concern is the fact that the billionaire oligarchs have the power and will work like hell to rig the vote. Cheat, intimidate, hell I wouldn’t rule out straight-up murder to keep people from going to the polls at this point.
Let me amend my prediction here to 260 seats, based on the info here, putting every district that Trump won by 13 points or less into the D column, and keeping every district that Harris won in the D column as well. That would give Dems 257 seats to Pubs 178.
With a 13-point swing toward Dems in Senate races, the Dems could pick up ME, NC and OH. The OH special election to replace Vance is the heaviest lift for Dems, but with Sherrod Brown as the (D) candidate, it’s a real good possibility. With solid candidates/campaigns, Dems should have a good chance to hold in GA (Ossoff) and MI (TBD).
With top-notch Democratic campaigns or a continued cratering of Republican support, FL (Trump won by 13.1), IA (Trump 13.3), TX (Trump 13.7) and AK (Trump 13.1) could also be in play.