Electoral Malaise

Great Debates
1

As of 4/28 on SDMB threads

Hillary voters: will you choose Obama or McCain
McCain – 4 (23%) because Issues and Experience!
Abstain – 1 (5%)
Obama – 12 (70%) because Oh Well, with hope!
Total – 17 (of 52 post)

Obama voters: will you choose Hillary or McCain
McCain – 14 (17%) because Any day of the week over Hillary!
Abstain – 22 (26%)
Hillary – 40 (48%) because I can hold my nose!
Undecided – 2 (2%)
Denial – 4 (5%)
total - 82 (of 157 posts)

Of course we can deduce what the commander of Operation Chaos would order: Vote for Hillary in the remaining primaries!

The general tone of the posts were annotated with the result above and generally show a malaise within the electorate.

Operation Focus On Z – There are seven months until the general election. Can anyone think of who might be a qualified write in candidate to go against all of them? Who could be called upon to serve? Is Bob Barr worth looking at (http://www.bobbarr2008.com/)? Or would we be just pissing into the wind?

If you know of possible alternative candidate post his/her credentials/biography/link…

2

[QUOTE=focusonz]
The general tone of the posts were annotated with the result above and generally show a malaise within the electorate.
[/QUOTE]
Malaise? Is that what it is called when voter registration surges higher than at any time in the last 20 years?

Or maybe you meant just the Republican party. Now there is cause for malaise.

3

Malaise is a feeling of general discomfort or uneasiness, an “out of sorts” feeling, often the first indication of an infection or other disease.

Colloquially, malaise has been referred to as “the creeping crud”

general discomfort or uneasiness as in
Oh Well, with hope!
Any day of the week over Hillary!
I can hold my nose!

Generally speaking, the malaise expresses that “something is wrong,” like a general warning light, but only a medical examination can determine the cause.

U.S. President Jimmy Carter, who on July 15, 1979, gave his so-called “national malaise” speech where he described a “crisis in the growing doubt about the meaning of our own lives and in the loss of a unity of purpose for our nation.” The word “malaise” did not actually appear in the text of the speech.

Is there any truth here?
Is democratic party losing its blue collar base.?
Is the blue collar base necessary for a democratic win?

Obama has a huge war chest. Did that money come from the democrat voting base?

There are seven months until the general election. There is something is wrong. Can it be made right?

4

There may be some electoral malaise on the Dope - I know I’m feeling plenty of it - but that’s because people have been going over election scenarios and primary details for months. It’s natural that some of us are feeling burned out, especially since things are essentially in stasis right now. Compared to the population at large this is a very high level of engagement.

5

"The Rise of the Rest

It’s true China is booming, Russia is growing more assertive, terrorism is a threat. But if America is losing the ability to dictate to this new world, it has not lost the ability to lead.

Americans are glum at the moment. No, I mean really glum. In April, a new poll revealed that 81 percent of the American people believe that the country is on the “wrong track.”" see Excerpt: Zakaria's 'The Post-American World'

6

The EU remains the heaviest drinking region in the world, with 55 million adults estimated to drink at harmful levels. Europe's Drinking Problem – DW – 10/24/2006
55M / Labor force 221M = 24% heavy drinkers

Heavy drinking was reported by 5.7 percent of the US population aged 12 or older, or 12.9 million people. These 2001 estimates are similar to the 2000 estimates. http://ncadistore.samhsa.gov/catalog/facts.aspx?topic=3

The EU has 6.7% unemployment Economy of the European Union - Wikipedia
The US has 5.0% unemployment http://www.bls.gov/

The EU GDP growth is 3.1% Economy of the European Union - Wikipedia
The US GDP growth is 3.2% United States GDP - real growth rate - Economy

The EU population growth rate is 0.12% https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ee.html 491M people * 0.12% = 589000
The EU net migration rate 1.46 per 1000 or 491M people * 1.46/1000 = 716000
The EU population growth rate(less migration) is (589K-716K) / 491M people = -0.02%

The US population growth rate is 0.883% https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/us.html 303M people * .883% = 2,666,000
The US net migration rate 2.92 per 1000 or 303M people * 2.92/1000 = 884000 (Illegal migration UNK)
The US population growth rate(less migration) is (2.66M - 884K) / 303M people = 0.58%

We can use the EU statistics to predict the future effect of US electoral malaise.

Do we want a US where a large percentage of citizens escape by using alcohol, a much higher unemployment rate, a dismal GDP growth rate, and a malaise which is so deep that the electorate does not even care to procreate above ZPG (in other words die off and go extinct)?

7

The EU childhood obesity was 24% in 2002 http://www.iotf.org/media/IOTFmay28.pdf
The US childhood obesity was 15% in 2000 http://www.iom.edu/Object.File/Master/22/606/FINALfactsandfigures2.pdf

Does the obesity rate in US indicate a general malaise in the electorate? Can we use the EU statistics to predict the future effect of US electoral malaise?

8

[QUOTE=focusonz]
Can we use the EU statistics to predict the future effect of US electoral malaise?
[/QUOTE]
Not by themselves. In what meaningful way do you think America is emulating Europe?

9

[QUOTE=Fear Itself]
Not by themselves.
[/QUOTE]

What other observations can you make that are additional evidence for a malaise?

How about reports of people needing to see a psychiatrist after Bush’s win in 2000.
Or how about the widespread Bush bashing just for bashings sake?
Or how about Flip flops?

[QUOTE=Fear Itself]
In what meaningful way do you think America is emulating Europe?
[/QUOTE]

Emulating European Union as in North America Free Trade Agreement
Emulating secularism as in repeal of Religious Freedom Restoration Act
Emulating socialism and the welfare state as in Obama platform
Emulating Anti-patriotism as in Obama statements and actions.
Emulating European Union as in revisionist SCOTUS

Are the symptoms of the malaise in the electorate of previous posts also due to the realization that the grand American experiment is going into the trash bin of history by virtue of Americas uncreative emulation of Europe given above?

10

[QUOTE=focusonz]
What other observations can you make that are additional evidence for a malaise?
[/QUOTE]
Since I am not the one make the claim for malaise, I am under no burden to prove it.

I see no evidence that Obama promotes either socialism or anti-patriotism (could you not think of a better word?).

11

[QUOTE=Fear Itself]
Since I am not the one make the claim for malaise, I am under no burden to prove it.
[/QUOTE]

So lets not be burdened by your lack of observational skills. Lets talk about the weather instead. Oops that requires observation too.

12

[QUOTE=focusonz]
Lets talk about the weather instead.
[/QUOTE]
How about a knock-knock joke? You go first.

13

focusonz, you were the one who claimed that Obama had made anti-patriotic statements. You are the one required to provide cites, not just retorts that the questioner was not observant. I don’t think it’s apparent to most people that Obama has made anti-patriotic statements, so it’s not just an ‘everybody who is in the least informed knows this’ kind of thing. At least, it may be an article of faith in your community, but here we don’t accept articles of faith as cites.

14

[QUOTE=focusonz]
Can we use the EU statistics to predict the future effect of US electoral malaise?
[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Fear Itself]
Not by themselves.
[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=focusonz]
What other observations can you make that are additional evidence for a malaise?
[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Fear Itself]
Since I am not the one make the claim for malaise, I am under no burden to prove it.
[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=focusonz]
So lets not be burdened by your lack of observational skills. Lets talk about the weather instead. Oops that requires observation too.
[/QUOTE]

The above is a transcript of the engagement. I cited numerous statistics prior to this before asking the question. Fear Itself then made an offer to engage using an authoritative statement. I then, not accepting, Fear Itself’s expertise in such matters asked for his additional evidence. I then compared and contrasted the US European emulation per his request. Then **Fear Itself ** copped out of the engagement by using an old and tiring pat admonishment. I, not accepting the blame, for the lack of dialog admonished him.

[QUOTE=Oy!]
focusonz, you were the one who claimed that Obama had made anti-patriotic statements.
[/QUOTE]

Yes I did. Fear Itself did not give an indication that he cared to engage on that point. Nor have you Oy! As you are commenting on the form of the above engagement.

[QUOTE=Oy!]
You are the one required to provide cites, not just retorts that the questioner was not observant.
[/QUOTE]

When Fear Itself made an authoritative statement “Not by themselves.” I am entitled to know why he thinks so. And when his disengagement blames me I am entitled to retort with a mirror of that blame.

[QUOTE=Oy!]
I don’t think it’s apparent to most people that Obama has made anti-patriotic statements, so it’s not just an ‘everybody who is in the least informed knows this’ kind of thing.
[/QUOTE]

I assume that by “most people” you mean those people using the SDMB because the statements evidence is in the posts. If you mean by “most people” the electorate then I must demand a cite from you.

[QUOTE=Oy!]
At least, it may be an article of faith in your community,
[/QUOTE]

I provided multiple posts giving cites of statistics which I felt were indicators of and malaise in the electorate. The only faith that I must hold is that the data gathers are doing an unbiased job.

[QUOTE=Oy!]
but here we don’t accept articles of faith as cites.
[/QUOTE]

This statement is false because when **Fear Itself ** says “Not by themselves” the only way it can be taken is as an articles of faith that he is an authority on such matters.

My question remains unanswered .

Can we use the EU statistics to predict the future effect of US electoral malaise?

This member of the Teeming masses wants to know.

15

We were discussing it, but bear in mind that there is no factual answer available - we can only speculate. But you listed a bunch of what you considered pieces of evidence including Obama both supporting socialism and being anti-patriotic. Those, unlike the question about malaise, should be able to be supported quite clearly with facts.

See, when you make statements in a debate, the people participating have the right to ask on what those statements are based. I understand that your original question is not about Obama, but about the existence or non-existence of voter malaise, and toward that end you offer up some statistics about Europe that lead you to believe there is voter malaise there and ask us if we think they can indicate where the US is going. Since that question can’t be answered factually (how can you answer a question like that factually - with answers from the Oracle at Delphi?), Fear Itself gave his opinion - the only thing available, and, by the way, a self-evident statement - European trends can hardly be the only influence on what happens in the US. Then he asks you in what way you feel that Europe influences the US.

You then go on to show what apparently was your real intent - you ask for other evidence that voter malaise is occurring, something which the rest of us have not agreed is even happening, and which the record registrations and turn-outs at the primary have argued against. (Seriously disliking one of the candidates or an elected official is not evidence of voter malaise, btw. “Voter malaise” would suggest a lack of interest/enthusiasm, and a general disillusionment with the entire process, not just for some of the candidates.) Then you list a bunch of statements which you apparently believe support your claim. You list these statements as if they were facts.

Since then (Post 9), you have been asked by both **Fear Itself ** and me (the only particpants other than yourself in this thread) to substantiate several of the statements offered up as factual evidence in post #9. Since you have now repeatedly refused to do so, anyone reading this thread can only conclude that it is because you have no evidence and are talking through your hat.

BTW, my evidence that most people do not perceive Obama as socialist or anti-patriotic is that he’s about to win the nomination, and even in the states he didn’t win, he has gotten a sizable portion of the vote. Don’t you think that if he were supporting either socialism or anti-patriotism, the Clinton campaign would have been screaming it to the rooftops? Also, he has energized and excited new voters in a way that hasn’t been seen in quite some time. Are they all socialists and anti-patriotic?

YOu offered a few statistics about Europe and the US and ask if they are indicative of a trend. Since we have only one data point, we can’t even say whether we are headed in the same direction as Europe (whose direction we also don’t know), let alone that we are being influenced by them. You then state outright that we can use European figures (which direction they are headed we don’t know, so we can’t say whether drinking is increasing or dropping, or population is increasing or dropping) to predict the future of the US. You also put all these figures out without explaining how they connect to your rather nebulous concept of ‘voter malaise.’

In short, sir, you don’t seem to have a clue about debate or any interest in learning. I’m outta here.

16

US heavy Alcohol use age 12 and above
2000 - 5.6%
2001 - 5.7%
2002 - 6.0%
2003 - 6.1%
2004 - 6.9%
2005 - 6.6%
2006 – 6.9%

http://www.samhsa.gov/index.aspx

17

[QUOTE=focusonz]
US heavy Alcohol use age 12 and above
2000 - 5.6%
2001 - 5.7%
2002 - 6.0%
2003 - 6.1%
2004 - 6.9%
2005 - 6.6%
2006 – 6.9%

http://www.samhsa.gov/index.aspx
[/QUOTE]
And what does that have with voter malaise ? And not with, say, dissatisfaction over the Iraq War, Bush, or the economy ? It’s not like nothing else but elections have happened in six years that might make people unhappy.

18

[QUOTE=Der Trihs]
And what does that have with voter malaise ? And not with, say, dissatisfaction over the Iraq War, Bush, or the economy ? It’s not like nothing else but elections have happened in six years that might make people unhappy.
[/QUOTE]

I am not talking about voter malaise but rather malaise in the electorate.
The data do not support any conclusions as yet.

Looking beyond the tip of my nose a lot is happening,
I can see with the baby boomer
Is He the loser or is he the dad.
Increased number of mid-life crisis’
Retiring with nothing to show for it.
Or
the democrats took over the legislature
No real leadership out of the politicians.
A world that has become Topsy Turvy.
The only certainty is death and taxes.

I am just sharing my findings.

19

[QUOTE=focusonz]
the democrats took over the legislature.
[/QUOTE]
Not yet they haven’t. It takes 60 votes to control the Senate, which they haven’t got. Maybe in January.

20

[QUOTE=focusonz]
I am not talking about voter malaise but rather malaise in the electorate.
[/QUOTE]

Which definition are you using?