electors

[vanilla]

Could three of them defect to Gore (from Bush)?
What are the odds of that?
Would it give Gore the presidency?

[Bricker]

Could three of them defect to Gore (from Bush)?
Yes.

What are the odds of that?
Judging from past elections, virtually zero. However, some might argue that past elections were never like this one, and thus do not give a reasonable guide here. Unfortunately, this is not craps, and a question like, “What are the odds?” defies rigor. I would opine that “extremely unlikely” is the best answer possible.

Would it give Gore the presidency?
This is also uncharted territory. Theoretically, Congress could refuse to count the ballot of a faithless elector. But 3 U.S.C. § 5 provides that:

If any State shall have provided, by laws enacted prior to the day fixed for the appointment of the electors, for its final determination of any controversy or contest concerning the appointment of all or any of the electors of such State, by judicial or other methods or procedures, and such determination shall have been made at least six days before the time fixed for the meeting of the electors, such determination made pursuant to such law so existing on said day, and made at least six days prior to said time of meeting of the electors, shall be conclusive, and shall govern in the counting of the electoral votes as provided in the Constitution, and as hereinafter regulated, so far as the ascertainment of the electors appointed by such State is concerned.

It’s unclear, at least to me, if this forces Congress to accept and count the vote of the elector, or merely to accept the elector so chosen, but, under the procedures of Art. II, §1, cl. 2, of the United States Constitution, challenging their vote.

• Rick