EU heading for breakup, Europe for trouble. Says CIA

[Rune]

THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.

The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.

[…]

The EU is also set for a looming demographic crisis because of a drop in birth rates and increased longevity, with devastating economic consequences.

[…]

As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions.

http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=56762005

So are we going to break-up even before admitting Turkey or is the CIA full of shit.

[gum]

@Rune

So are we going to break-up even before admitting Turkey or is the CIA full of shit.

Both, I think.

[SentientMeat]

“Prediction” is rather too strong a word in these instances: contingency planning is perhaps more accurate. As with issues like climate change, the reports are not “official CIA policy” but heads-ups for the administrations whose duty it is to inform.

In this case, EU rules relaxing restrictions on movement and employment between the member states appear to be precisely what is needed, even though more ‘tension’ might result. Admitting more, poorer states (with younger populations) is a way to offset those demographic concerns - let us see what the recent admission of several Eastern Europeans former Soviet states does in this regard. As Rune mentions, Turkey might be admitted in the next decade, as might Ukraine or possibly even Russia by 2020.

[ITR_champion]

On my latest trip to Europe I saw good news on this issue, namely that Europeans are actually talking about the looming demographic crisis and beginning to develop some plans for dealing with it. Ultimately, while allowing in new countries with younger populatios may help, it can’t stave off the crisis forever. They’ll have to adopt at least one of three possible solutions: reduce pension benefits, increase taxes, or raise the average retirement age. On a country-by-country basis it will depend on whether each age group is willing to sacrifice enough to make the system solvent.

Also, they need to build some top-notch universities in order to stop American universities from draining away the most talented young people.

[Kimstu]

ITRc: Also, they need to build some top-notch universities in order to stop American universities from draining away the most talented young people.

I think they’re already working on that, aided by the drop in foreign student enrollment in US universities resulting from stiffer visa restrictions post-9/11. According to this article from last month,

“International education is big business for all of the Anglophone countries, and the US traditionally has dominated the market without having to try very hard,” said Tim O’Brien, international development director at Nottingham Trent University, speaking to the New York Times yesterday.

"Now Australia, the UK, Ireland, New Zealand and Canada are competing for that dollar, and our lives have been made easier because of the difficulties that students are having getting into the US.

“International students say it’s not worth queuing up for two days outside the US consulate in whatever country they are in to get a visa when they can go to the UK so much more easily.”

This sudden shift away from the US has also been put, in part, down to the increasing aggressiveness of some overseas institutions. China, for example has recently declared that turning 100 universities into world-class research institutions is encouraging many students who might otherwise have gone to the US to stay at home. Many countries are starting to expand their potential for graduate education, giving international students many more options beyond just going to America. The European Union is working to create a more streamlined, American-style higher education system, while the UK, New Zealand and Australia are all racing to fill the gap for English speaking institutions left by American universities.

So the EU, as well as other countries, is taking advantage of decreased foreign enrollment in the US not only to keep more of their own students at home, but also to attract more students from outside the EU who would formerly have gone to study in the US.

[scotandrsn]

Isn’t this the same CIA that had so much to say about WMD’s in Iraq?

Take it with a pillar of salt.

[FriarTed]

@scotandrsn

Take it with a pillar of salt.

That’s not a LOT to ask for!

[Miller]

Yeah, this sounded bad until I saw the bit where it comes from the CIA. When was the last time these guys were right about anything?

[CarnalK]

Oh , the CIA predicts everything correctly. It’s just a matter of choosing the right prediction to believe.
Anyway, as mentioned these are already clearly recognized economic forecasts. The fear of the coming Boomer retirement glut is here in Canada and the US as well. Not like anyone was waiting for the CIA to give us all the go ahead to worry about it.

[BrainGlutton]

I think the CIA might be whistling past the graveyard. Check out Jeremy Rifkin’s book, The European Dream: How Europe’s Vision of the Future is Quietly Eclipsing the American Dream (Jeremy P. Thartcher, 2004). From the website of the Foundation on Economic Trends, http://www.foet.org/European%20Dream.htm:

The American Dream is becoming ever more elusive. Americans are increasingly overworked, underpaid, squeezed for time, and unsure about their prospects for a better life. One third of all Americans say they no longer even believe in the American Dream.

While the American Dream is languishing, says bestselling author Jeremy Rifkin, a new European Dream is capturing the attention and imagination of the world. Twenty-five nations, representing 455 million people, have joined together to create a United States of Europe.

The European Union’s $10.5 trillion GDP now eclipses the United States’, making it the largest economy in the world. The EU is already the world’s leading exporter and largest internal trading market. Moreover, much of Europe enjoys a longer life span and greater literacy, and has less poverty and crime, less blight and sprawl, longer vacations, and shorter commutes to work than we do in the United States. When one considers what makes a people great and what constitutes a better way of life, observes Rifkin, Europe is beginning to surpass America.

More important, Europe has become a giant laboratory for rethinking humanity’s future. In many respects, the European Dream is the mirror opposite of the American Dream. While the American Dream emphasizes unrestrained economic growth, personal wealth, and the pursuit of individual self-interest, the European Dream focuses more on sustainable development, quality of life, and the nurturing of community.

“We Americans live (and die) by the work ethic and the dictates of efficiency. Europeans place more of a premium on leisure and even idleness. America has always seen itself as a great melting pot. Europeans, instead, prefer to preserve their rich multicultural diversity. We believe in maintaining an unrivaled military presence in the world. Europeans, by contrast, emphasize cooperation and consensus over go-it-alone approaches to foreign policy.”

[Knorf]

@BrainGlutton quoting FoET

More important, Europe has become a giant laboratory for rethinking humanity’s future. In many respects, the European Dream is the mirror opposite of the American Dream. While the American Dream emphasizes unrestrained economic growth, personal wealth, and the pursuit of individual self-interest, the European Dream focuses more on sustainable development, quality of life, and the nurturing of community.

“We Americans live (and die) by the work ethic and the dictates of efficiency. Europeans place more of a premium on leisure and even idleness. America has always seen itself as a great melting pot. Europeans, instead, prefer to preserve their rich multicultural diversity. We believe in maintaining an unrivaled military presence in the world. Europeans, by contrast, emphasize cooperation and consensus over go-it-alone approaches to foreign policy.”

The European dream seems dreamier to me.

[rjung]

@scotandrsn

Isn’t this the same CIA that had so much to say about WMD’s in Iraq?

No, that was the OSP.

[Demorian]

Sounds like a political yes-man report to me.

NATO breaking up, yes. NATO is outdated and unnecessary. Given the Europeans’ will to only use it to fight wars within Europe, the scarcity of European conflicts, and increasing EU military conventions, they basically won’t need America and its wild unilateral and dangerous foreign policy.

Like I said in another post, America needs to stop the “we’re the only superpower” bullshit. Europe, China, India, and Brazil are all knocking on the gates to our country club, and they have more stable international relations. We’ll get continually mucked down in stupid ass wars and generating ill will in the international community, alienating ourselves, and we’ll eventually start to crumble from within (our economy is well on the way to this end. I don’t mean the economy that is doing well enough producing jobs now, I mean our horribly unbalanced budget, tremendous and rapidly growing debt and inability to fund our social programs. We don’t have a plan for the future. We don’t even know what the next 2 years will hold for us). We probably won’t collapse disastrously, but we are on the way to becoming has-beens. Grown too quickly to adapt to changing situations. Socially divided on fundamental issues. Poor international relations. Pretty soon the world is going to start throwing parties and not inviting us.

[msmith537]

@Demorian

Like I said in another post, America needs to stop the “we’re the only superpower” bullshit. Europe, China, India, and Brazil are all knocking on the gates to our country club, and they have more stable international relations. We’ll get continually mucked down in stupid ass wars and generating ill will in the international community, alienating ourselves, and we’ll eventually start to crumble from within (our economy is well on the way to this end. I don’t mean the economy that is doing well enough producing jobs now, I mean our horribly unbalanced budget, tremendous and rapidly growing debt and inability to fund our social programs. We don’t have a plan for the future. We don’t even know what the next 2 years will hold for us). We probably won’t collapse disastrously, but we are on the way to becoming has-beens. Grown too quickly to adapt to changing situations. Socially divided on fundamental issues. Poor international relations. Pretty soon the world is going to start throwing parties and not inviting us.

Sorry but I really don’t see that happening. China and India have more stable international relations? Both are constantly on the verge of war with their tiny neighbors. Europe is going to have some really big problems in a few years as their ageing workforce begins to retire which means a much smaller tax base to fund much larger social programs. I agree that we need to stop the “we are the only superpower bullshit” and having a few more friendly rivals, as well as less international income disparity, would serve as a stabalizing factor in international relations. I don’t see our economy collapsing in the next few years while all the othe countries race ahead. I do see some tough decision having to be made at home as Americans realize that being “fat drunk and stupid” is not going to get them close to the American Dream in a world where people with nothng are willing to do whatever it takes to get ahead.

[II_Gyan_II]

This is not a CIA report. This was done by the National Intelligence Council, which does report to Dir. Porter Goss.

Here’s the report. Here’s an interactive site site, where you can manipulate variables to predict alternate future scenarios.

[JohnClay]

The world’s population is predicted to stabilize at about 9 billion anyway… (currently it’s 6.4 billion)
http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2004/11/05/population_041105.html

As far as an aging population goes, the retirement age can simply be increased, like it has been in Australia… the trend in Australia is that people will eventually work for as long as they’re capable of working. And maybe Holland would legalize euthanasia again (or maybe it is still legal).

[JohnClay]

@ITR champion

…They’ll have to adopt at least one of three possible solutions: reduce pension benefits, increase taxes, or raise the average retirement age…

There is another possibility… only have the state pay you money if you are unable to work (or unemployed). Simply being too old wouldn’t be a good enough reason. Though people who have saved up their own money would be able to retire when they’re old, even if they’re still capable of working. Old-age pensions for people who are capable of work is a fairly new idea I think anyway.