I ask because the birthrate is falling all over Europe-Italy is now BELOW replacement levels, and Germany is not far behind!
So, will Europe be:
(A) Depopulated (actually having abandoned towns and cities)
(B) have a muslim majority? (Parts of France now resemble Algeria)
(C) have a non-Christain majority?
Or, will the birth rate experience a resurgence (as happened after WWII)?
I can see some severe problems in having a shrinking population-the economy contracts, and real estate loses value (there is nobody to sell your house to when you retire).
Will the Europeans passively accept their extinction, and allow themslves to be colonized by the third world?
IANAn expert, but I do know that forecasting demographics through simple extrapolation of current trends is dodgy. Ask Malthus or the HK govt.
Will European Muslims become secularized and westernized in time? Will new sources of more “European” immigrants (S America?) rise? Will people start liking bigger families (as you suggest)? Will technological/medical breakthroughs allow a larger older population to be supported by a smaller younger workforce, or allow them to remain economically active for longer? Will the elderly move to lower-cost retirement locations outside Europe?
Can’t see them becoming extinct.
I don’t think this post belong to “General Question”. The way your question is asked, it borders xenophobia, IMO, and anyway I can’t figure how there could be a factual answer to it.
Just some short comments :
-Nobody can guess what the situation will be like in any place and on any topic 100 years from now. Things change massively over a century. Who could know what the italian birth rate will be in 2070 (Assuming that the concept “Italy” will still be relevant at this point)?
-I would point out that way before 2100, the population in most southern countries will drop too, based on the current projections. A good example would be China. So, since you’re thinking on the very long term, you should keep in mind that an aging population could be a worldwide issue (and not particulary an european one) long before 2100.
-What are these parts of France which look like Algeria? I didn’t notice them…
I think we’ll be fine. The decrease in birth is compensated by immigration and we hold more or less zero growth level. The immigrants are much needed to help Europe be an active part in an increasingly global economy. Too boot Europe is very densely populated, especially Germany, so it doesn’t hurt us too much that we aren’t growing explosively – which answers A.
France looks like Algeria? Ha! You should go traveling a little more there ralph. While as Algeria is an arid climate of Mediterranean/pre-Saharan/Saharan character, France is one of the most varied geographies on Earth if you consider her size - the climate varies from Atlantic to Mediterranean to Highland torrid and Highland arid and so on, and so on… I’m pretending like you didn’t posit that in reference to culture, because that was a little scary as far as generalizations go. Read up before posting…stats and facts are your friends.
Oh what the hell I’ll answer it anyway…The North African population has had a significant impact on French culture for a couple of thousand years and especially in the last one hundred. I grew up in the predominantly Arabic quarters in Paris, and I can tell you that this is a very French variety of Arabic culture and not so Algerian at all. The shopkeepers in my neighborhood used to greet me with; ‘S’lam Monsieur le grand blonde.,’ and then we’d sit around and drink French espressos and talk about PSG’s latest football match or President Mitterrand’s and Mayor Chirac’s latest guffaws in politics. As I said they are French just as much as the Bretons, the Provencal, the Aquitaine or the Savoyard. France has an extremely varied culture.
As re Islam in Europe. Yes it’s the fastest growing religion on the continent. Considering that the other ones are shrinking and a large portion of immigration is from regions with large segments of Muslim population that is hardly surprising. HOWEVER, since Islam as a religion attracts followers in the single percentages of total population, it I shard to extrapolate a majority in any foreseeable future, and if it was; so what? In any case Europe is a prime secularization machinery and like most other creeds Islam is loosing it’s foothold in the younger generations. - all of which addresses B
As for C, yes probably. The European population is increasingly Agnostic and Atheist, but the culture is still mainly Christian and this influence is likely to remain - you don’t rub out fifteen hundred years of moral and ethical tradition that fast, and much of the Christain pathos has been adopted in a secular for by Socialism and Liberalism the dominant political movements on the continent.
It’s improbable that birth rates will go up, in fact we don’t actively try to achieve that for reasons mentioned in my first paragraph.
As re extinction and the third world part… Cheesus! That’s what Le Pen fears, he’s also worried about miscegenation. Is that what worries you as well, or were you just wondering?
Sparc
it I shard?¿? it is hard
and
secular for?¿? secular form
it I shard?¿? it is hard
and
secular for?¿? secular form
I think this question is a little speculative for GQ. Off to IMHO.