Evaluate the two campaigns

I think it’s always useful to evaluate the campaigns before we know the results and look back with hindsight.

Biden: an OK campaign, better than Hillary in 2016. He has successfully portrayed himself as a figure of normalcy and decency and I suspect that is what the median voter wants now. He was competent enough in the two debates and held his nerve against Trump’s disruptive tactics in the first one. OTOH I don’t think he has explained his policies in a compelling way and has edged a bit too left on issues like fracking or at least failed to explain his positions clearly.

Trump: a poor campaign worse than 2016 which which was not that great but where in the final weeks he was able to hone in on a populist message with a certain amount of focus and energy. I suspect Bannon had something to do with it. This time he appears to be flailing around with an almost random series of attacks: Hunter Biden, Biden-is-senile, the election is rigged etc. The latter may help preserve his self-esteem if he loses but is a terrible message for undecided voters before an election.

My assumption is that the forecast models are right and Biden will win comfortably with around 350EV but I think would broadly stand with the above even if the unexpected happens in either direction.

The republicans didn’t even have a platform coming out of the convention and the campaign reflected it. No real direction, just attack on all sides and blame others for their failings. Its been painful watching Trump commercials where he bluntly lies about accomplishments and brags about turning the corner on the virus. Saying he is going to protect pre-existing conditions while supporting a Supreme Court candidate that will try and invalidate the ACA is just horrid to watch.

Biden’s campaign just had to not screw up and Biden just had to be the level headed decent guy people always knew he was. His choice of VP was well thought out and a good fit. He will will win the popular vote and the EC.

My fear is that Trump will tie up the victory in stupid court cases, try to invalidate votes and get the Electoral College to disregard the results and vote for him in a blatant power grab. For Trump the real campaign is just beginning. I hope I am wrong.