http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/07/29/terrorist.market.ap/index.html
Where they going to set up a financial market on future terror attacks?
Whatever the hell they were doing must have been really stupid considering how fast they flip flopped when people got wind of it.
Please explain this to me in caveman level laymen terms. Thanks
Well, you see, the Republicans took control of the White House and both houses of Congress back in 2000, which let loose the corporate dogs to wreak whatever havoc they wish on an unsuspecting (for some odd reason) and largely apathetic populace. This situation is the nearly full realization of Mussolini’s definition of fascism (and he was an expert).
The flying monkeys have been let loose, the wolves out of their cages, the orcs swarming out of their pits. This is the America of the right, the ultimate realization of corporate greed and political power. A chance to make money from the blood of innocents under the guise of “national security”.
What: over the top? Too embittered and cynical? Really? I don’t think so.
Oh…k. That’s a start I guess. How bout a little more info on the futures market itself. I ask this because, well, this seems like a completely insane idea, so insane in fact, that I must be misunderstanding something.
I read a news article just a few moments ago. Said article mentioned that there’s a webpage currently availiable, yet fails to mention it.
In caveman terms: Penatagon plan stupid.
I’m not sure yet if that’s a redundancy.
Insert your own conservatives-out-to-profit-from-the-suffering-of-others joke here.
As for the futures market: How big can an :eek: or a :rolleyes: get?
http://www.darpa.mil/iao/FutureMap.htm
K here we go. Scary shit.
Before we go any farther, someone has to explain how the futures market in terrorism actually works. Pork Bellies, I understand. Hedging September corn, I understand. Buying a futures interest in bombs going off in East Harness Buckle, I don’t understand. If a bomb does not go off in East Harness Buckle in September am I obligated to go set one off or pay someone to go blow the place up?
It’s a dead pool, and possibly the worst idea to come out of the Pentagon since… hell, ever. I’m no fan of Daschle, but he was right to bitch slap this thing into oblivion the minute he heard of it.
Let’s use orange juice as an example of a futures market. What investors do is try to guess the future price of orange juice. They buy a slot in the pool, say $0.85 a gallon on sept 27, and then that slot can be traded. These slots are traded until they mature (in this case - sept 27). If on sept 27 the price is 85 cents a gallon, the holders of that future cash them in. Holders of different futures (like say 97 cents) find that those futures are worthless. Participants in a terror futures market would bet on when the next terrorrist attack takes place - silmilar to a dead pool in which people bet on which celebrity dies next.
Did you ever see Trading Places with Eddie Murphy and Dan Akroid? They were able to steal the governments predictions on orange juice, and thus they knew about what the future price of orange juice was going to be. By trading in only the most likely futures, they made a killing - Like betting on a rigged horse race.
In a futures market, the most likely futures are the ones that trade for the highest price (usually). The idea is that by watching the trading level and the prices of all the different futures, the Pentagon would be better able to predict when the next attack takes place. Futures markets have proved to be very useful prediction tools in all manner of things, and are frequently more on target than so called “experts”
They didn’t think this one, through. It’s a bad idea. Since terrorists know when they are going to attack, they can pull a Trading Places, and profit enormously. Any use as a predictive tool is completely outweighed by the fact that the system would have provided an incentive for terrorism. In short, this dumbass idea would have made terrorism extremely lucrative.
This probably should have been in GQ or Great Debates, but then I wouldn’t have been allowed to rant. 
Good post. I wonder what other stupid shit they’ve actually slipped under the radar.
Oh come everybody, this is all a hoax right??
While I agree with the dumbass part of your asessment, note that any terrorists who want to make a killing both figuratively and literally would have to place a large wager, and would thus affect the odds in a large way. The predictive value of it would therefore be pretty large, although, of course, you’ve still got a big lineup of degenerates trying to make an easy buck.
There are loads of threads on this right now. Perhaps someone could imagine this over their lunch break, but how the heck did it get furthur than that?!?
It’s been shut down. The idea was to have registered members and between their “betting” on possible scenarios etc the pentagon would be able to id unknown target. Coll was drooling at the idea. 
It’s been shut down. The idea was to have registered members and between their “betting” on possible scenarios etc the pentagon would be able to id an unknown target. Coll was drooling at the idea.
The latest being reported is that the Pentagon originally set up the plan as a way to predict what the next target will be and it snowballed from there. I have no idea how much of that is just plain spin.
I wonder how much of this idea was John Poindexter’s?
They had been working on it for two years. And they were going to unveil it friday. This really has to take the cake.
2 friggin years? Wow, that’s a lot of effort!
Who is this Poindexter guy, he’s been getting ripped a new one everywhere on the net.
Iran-Contra guy, along with Oliver North.
Hey, DARPA’s come up with some crazy-ass stuff before, but this really isn’t THAT insane now is it?
Let’s say you register 5,000 CIA policy wonks on the system, and give them $20 each plus whatever else they want to throw in of their own money. No employee is going to go pull of an assasination to make $500 dollars, but that’s enough incentive for people to make their own best estimates and for which they have a personal stake in. Consequently, markets allow you to see larger trends in terrorism than simply trying to survey all 50,000 policy analysis reports put out by 5,000 wonks over the last decade. They have all formed their own opinions, and they know what they want to spend money on.
Let’s use September 11th as an example. Attack by hijacked commercial airliner is a future you can bet upon, and although nobody managed to put together the big picture between flight schools, the INS, credit card purchases, etc., individual agents might view these things as something you’re willing to put money on. Again, markets have proven more accurate than estimates in the past.
This system probably wouldn’t have highlighted the actual September 11th plot, but maybe it would have pointed out airlines as a point of risk leading to increased security in airports/more air marshalls/an objective indicator that would give more credance to scattered reports about the September 11th plot, and maybe it would have influenced its outcome.
How much do we lose in investing in this system anyway?