I don’t disagree that the optics are bad for Trump now, which is why this is one of those rare time he’s facing some internal push-back – but remember there was the disastrous response to the tragedy in Charlottesville, VA and he eventually recovered from that. He said the right things (eventually), and that satisfied the general public, which desperately (and mistakenly) wants to normalize him. But to his base, he’s a hero. And this is only reinforcing his strength.
Here’s the thing to remember: Trump is the fringe president, but he represents 27-30% of fringe America that desperately wants to be recognized and tolerated. The message they’re getting from Trump is, they have their guy in the White House - a rare occurrence. That means 27-30% of the electorate have a reason to vote. What you see from Trump is theater - gladiator politics. A show to make him seem embattled, so that his Praetorian guard will come out and defend him in 2018 and 2020.
Depending on how this turns out, this is going to be significant. Should Donald come to his senses and reverse this nonsense, damage could be minimal. But he is incapable of learning, of having empathy, of admitting error, or of backing down. So that’s not going to happen. If he was smart, he could use this as a ploy to get rid of Sessions. He could claim to be horrified by his concentration camps, fire Sessions for his policy, then get a toady confirmed who fires Mueller. Of course he isn’t that smart and he saddles Republicans with the tears of children.
What will Republicans do? Stand by Donald and keep the 25% of the voters who are racist, but alienate the other 75%? Renounce the policy and get primaried by a racist or if already past the primary, the racist core of the party loses enthusiasm and stays home? It’s a lose-lose proposition for them.
I do know one thing: If these immigrants looked like JonBenet Ramsey or Beaver Cleaver, we wouldn’t be having this debate. The policy would never have been enacted and we wouldn’t have the gulags overflowing. It’s all about racism.
The least disreputable explanation for the fact that the girls have been Boko-Haram-disappeared is that images of young males are more effective at making Orangeanus’ racist base wish they’d worn their brown pants.
Personally, I recommend setting aside this theory and Just Asking Questions[tm] about a man with 1)a history of 1a)misogyny and 1b)greed who 2)has seized control of a large number of young girls and 3)is in hock up to his eyeballs to the Russian Mafiya, who are 4)notorious human traffickers. Hey, if the presentation of those particular dots to be linked hurts their fee-fees all they have to do is provide unfettered media and humanitarian access to the girls.
I certainly hope that’s the case, but the polls are not showing that so far. His numbers are as good as they’ve ever been except the first few weeks when the “let’s give him a chance”-crowd approved of what they thought he might do.
Maybe there’s a shift in the polls coming, but so far all the big outrages have only caused short lived blips in Trump popularity and disapproval.
One thing that makes me think that this may actually hurt him: A lot of Republican voters do actually have one other avenue of information aside from Fox News. And pretty much every church in the country has not only condemned this practice, but blamed it on Trump and his minions.
Here in Texas, Cruz, Cornyn and Will Hurd (to name three) are downright frightened at what this means to them. Their internal polling is so horrible that last week Cruz was all “the law is the law” and this week he (and Cornyn) introduced legislation to stop this.
In addition, calls to their offices show extremely depressed and tired staffers who are tired of having to fend off frightened conservative Hispanics who are now wondering if they, or a family member, will be next
Meanwhile Will Hurd (representative) is appearing on as many local shows as he can to argue that this isn’t HIS doing.
Rick Wilson, ex-GOP media guru, tweeted this yesterday:
"Well, well, well.
Who’s teacher NOW?
Pollster for one of Trump’s most passionate, white-hot, flame-on ride-or-die defenders sends:
“We have about a week before XXXXXXXX bails on Trump. The numbers are THAT bad.” "
This may play well in Indiana, but in Texas it is a political disaster for the Republicans, especially those who need Hispanic votes to win.
Yes, you can win an election by getting 100% of the racist vote and 1/3 of everyone else. That’s what Donald did. However, this issue has legs and it won’t be nearly as easy to get the 1/3 of the non-racist vote.
Hurting Trump doesn’t have to hurt the congressional candidates if they oppose him on just this one issue. He could even give them the opportunity to ‘solve’ the problem as just the Republican party instead of having them join Democrats in a bipartisan effort. Timing is pretty critical here, if this isn’t an issue in September then it may not matter at all, and it is also serving as a distraction from bigger issues like the trade war we are going to lose and our economy overloading its foundation.
I would like to thank you for this post, which I read part of aloud to Ted Cruz’s and John Cornyn’s staff this morning.
Ted Cruz’s guy said “The Senator has already proposed legislation…”
"Which will not pass because he has to get approval from the white supremacists in the Republican party, which they will not give and, in fact, with the President’s words yesterday is already dead in the water. And the Senator knows this.
Listen. You have a President who is an admitted sex offender and rampant misogynist, one in debt to Russian gangsters who have a history of human sex trafficking… and now this man has taken young girls from their families with no sight of them since.
I know I don’t have to draw the dots here, right?"
That would matter if Trump gave a shit, but he already knows that he won’t be impeached and he thinks that there are enough people with hate in their heart who will support him if he leaves no doubt that he is on their side. He could do something about this problem with one phone call…but then he would lose some of his base.
Their problem is that this brings to the forefront divisions in the GOP. Parts of Trump’s base see Sessions’ “Scare them off” strategy as a great idea. The will be less energized to go and vote for someone who made it go away, unless Trump scores some major concessions on immigration through it. But if it doesn’t go away, the GOP voters that aren’t proud deplorable will likewise have less motivation.
I agree that it might go away as an issue voters remember in September, but even if it distracts from the trade ware issues now, those are issues that will undoubtedly still be with us in September, unless they turn out to be overblown and Trump actually wins a trade war. (Not very likely. At best he can roll over quickly and start spinning the loss as a victory.)
The loss of votes from Trump’s Nazi base through opposition within the party could be matched or surpassed by the disenchanted Republican mainstream showing up at the polls and keeping the fence sitters from voting for a Democrat. The Republican mainstream always wants to vote for a Republican, this could be their excuse to do so in the spite of all the other problems they see within the party. Most voters are like this, using a single issue as the justification for what is a simple tribal party affiliation.