This article in CNN suggests Republicans may be scrambling, fearful that the policy and it’s optics might cost them dearly, at least in the House? While it plays to Trump’s base, it polls very poorly with Ds and Independents. Do you think it changes the likely results of the Midterms? Why or why not? https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/19/politics/republicans-trump-house-immigration/index.html
No, I don’t think it will affect them.
If I were a GOP candidate, I’d say something like, “We must be tough on immigration, but I support family values. And separating any family is wrong to me. We need to IMPROVE the separations in camps.”
So for a voter who hates them there brown people, but doesn’t like seeing the kids crying, that voter will vote for me.
As a Democratic candidate, I might say, “We must STOP the camps of children. It’s Inhumane!” And plenty of people who are disgusted by this will vote for me.
Immigration is an issue, but the family separation is an issue within an issue-- immigration. If that’s the single-issue voter’s factor on who they vote for, I doubt it would swing many people.
It’ll have zero effect. We’re 5 months out and this administration is masterful at changing the subject by doing something else that’s vile. My guess is that in two weeks you won’t even hear about this anymore. The only thing that is happening that might have some effect is that Evangelicals are definitely upset about it. My Evangelical friends and family aren’t trying to defend it at all. They’re steamed, but the Fox News churn has them convinced that this is Obama’s fault and Trump’s hands are tied. They honestly believe that Trump had nothing to do with this and it has been happening for years and only now is coming out because the Democrats are playing politics. It honestly wouldn’t surprise me if what happens is that Trump cancels his zero tolerance policy with an Executive Order and then it gets spun as he is finally the guy that was willing to put a stop to this injustice despite the Democrats doing their best to keep those people in confinement. I will say though that a surprising number of Evangelical leaders are starting to turn on this issue. I don’t know it it will be permanent, but I think that it’s possible for Trump to really mess up his base if he’s not careful.
It’s interesting sometimes to spend a day or two and just consume news from the other side. It’s really a totally different reality that we’re living in. If your only source of news was Fox News and Breitbart, you would totally be convinced that Trump is the greatest President since Lincoln and if Democrats would only let him that he would make the US a utopia. The information and spin is so completely different that they’re really not seeing the world the same way that we are.
FWIS. I think it will contribute in some significant way to turning off those who were ‘looking the other way’. I think it will revive talk of a blue wave. Separating Families At The Border Is Really Unpopular | FiveThirtyEight
I guess it’s not really about swinging people, but about making R voters apathetic and D voters extremely motivated.
I would like to believe that every terrible thing Trump fosters, allows, starts or influences will garner a proper response from American voters. However, I lost all faith in the American electorate in Nov. 2016. There is a stunning number of easily influenced and steered voters in this country. Old fashioned propaganda in facebook feeds and cable “news” works, and propaganda has never had such a reach.
Yes it is hard to take. I bet it felt like this at the end of all empires…
I’m expecting more GOP voters to vote since the presidential election. Here’s hoping democratic voters show up too.
If Orange Turd would simply say, “A vote for any republican is a vote for me!” that’s all it’ll take.
I think it will have an effect. I think it’s similar to Obama’s awful year in 2014 which had the children’s immigration issue along with Ebola and ISIS. That caused a lot of Democrats to twist themselves into pretzels about if they supported him or not.
We shall see if this issue, along with the tariffs, causes Republican candidates to flop all over the place, just like they did in 2006 with Katrina, Iraq, and the congressional scandals.
The effect depends on how it is resolved, and when. There are now multiple republican senators and representatives speaking out against the practice. Laws are being written to force the administration to do things differently.
It’s definitely another talking point for Democrats and more fuel for the “Trump has to be stopped at all costs”-bonfire.
It’s also a divisive issue for the GOP, pitting the president against his “own” senators and congressmen. Whether they’ve fought the president or kowtowed again, it might influence some independents and the enthusiasm of the very anti- and very pro-Trump voters.
Add to that more potential chaos as congress passes laws that Trump might or might not sign, and that he might or might not call terrible after they’ve been passed …
I find it completely plausible that Trump as the midterms approach will be screaming “We must elect Republicans, but only good Republicans!” while everyone around him tries to tell him there is no way to replace “disloyal” candidates on the ballot except in the extremely unlikely event every potential voters write in the same Trumpkin. (Or is it even possible to write in a candidate in every state?)
I’m not sure what you mean by this. In general, Republican voters tend to turn out at higher rates in off-year elections and that was especially noticeable in 2014. There hasn’t been much sign of this in the primaries, though. And Trump, BTW, has a poor track record in getting supported candidates on the ballot.
A lot of that is because off-year elections are always about local issues. Immigration is a major issue in border areas and far less of one in the rest of the country.
The one effect I anticipate will be so hard to quantify that it hardly counts as a prediction. Notice that all five former first ladies have come out against separating families. A record number of female candidates are running this fall, both for Congress and for lower races. The association with children and families may add a small, subliminal boost to their electibility.
I think it actually helps Trump, and I’ll explain why.
In the short run, yes, it’s terrible optics. It’s never good to have crying children on a hot mic and images of children being taken from their parents. So right now, it’s bad in the sense that it blunts what could have been a major spike in his support from his meeting with Kim Jong Un.
But in the long run, this not only doesn’t hurt Trump, but might even help him. His gladiator politics have demonstrated convincingly that he stands with white nationalists and the rest of his deplorables. This actually helps Trump because he’s giving these people a reason to go out and vote in mid-terms. Sure, he’s giving his enemies a reason to go out and vote against him, but if he can get more of his white vote out to the polls, then he wins.
I’d also point out that if there’s a major national emergency, like a terrorist event, then the people might be more inclined to support a president with a cruel dictatorial streak.
Maybe. Trump himself may not care( resistance often seems to cause him to angrily double down ), but when Ralph Reed And Franklin Graham are coming out against you, generic Republicans have cause to sweat.
It would play to his base, just like he’
s doing now. Don’t think this or a terrorist attack will help him with anyone but his base. YMMV
There are three sets of people: those who like Trump, those who hate Trump, and those who aren’t paying any attention.
Those who like Trump and like the policy will continue to do so.
Those who like Trump but hate the policy will believe Trump’s lies that its all Obama’s fault.
Those who hate Trump will just add it to the mountain of reasons to hate Trump, to little effect.
Those who haven’t been paying attention will continue to do so or will throw up their hands and say both sides are equally bad.
What I expect the Republicans to do is to pass a remedy measure with a poison pill, such as closing down Immigration courts, and leaving the decisions about granting asylum up to ICE. Then when Democrats vote against it that vote can be used in ads to prove the Democrats won’t let children go back to their parents.
He didn’t become president with just his base alone; he had others who were outside of his base to help him get over the top.
Maybe, but he can back off of the policy and forget that it happened. And Franklin Graham and Ralph Reed would quickly go back to being Trump supporters. He risks more permanent damage by looking too weak on immigration than too strong. He was elected in part by promising to be tough on immigration and by making America white again. Don’t ever forget that.
You’re right. He claimed the great Middle, who at that time didn’t really know what they were getting. But they sure do now. I don’t think you’re parsing it correctly. The Middle is now fleeing him in droves.
Everything you need to know about how well this is all going to play in the mid-terms is evident in how Republicans are reacting. They’re actually starting to speak out and criticize him to distance themselves from this policy. They are not agreeing to blame Democrats.
Both Democratic and Republican governors are rescinding their orders to deploy National Guard troops to the border earlier sent at Trump’s request.
I hope Trump runs on this all the way to November.
The GOP will stand up to Trump on this one. No one will switch their vote to a Democrat for doing that.
Of course not. As I said in my post, it’s the Middle that is fleeing him and his policies. It’s the Middle that wins elections.