Fantasy Football -- disect this team

Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share
1

The details:
non-SDMB league, funky auto-draft, 12 teams, serious players, 6 pt passing TDs, yardage bonuses, individual defenders, turnover penalty. QB,RB,WR,flex,flex,flex,TE,K,D,D,D

The team:
QB
Culpepper
Green
Wuerffel

RB
Holmes
Pittman
Taylor
Portis
foster

WR
Chambers
Galloway
Thrash
Glenn
McCaffrey

TE
Heap
Stevens

K
Wilkins

D
Urlacher
M Patton
Cowart
D Sharper

In this funky draft system, rounds are split by position and conference so that everybody gets a chance to have “first pick” at least once. Of course, my “first pick” was for kicker. Still, I think the team is fairly strong. My wide receivers worry me, there isn’t a single lock-down stud in the group, but Chambers cuols break out and both Galloway and Glenn have at least some hope of being this years comeback player. Favre has to throw to somebody, right?

I like Culpepper a lot, and Green is a great backup. Wuerffel is just a wild card, but I like having him as third string.

RB’s might be my strength. Holmes has more upside than any back but Faulk, and I really like Pittman in teh new tampa Bay offense (closest thing to a “homer” pick on my team). Taylor scares the hell out of me, but he burned me so badly last season that I figure he owes me a good year. Portis and Foster are fine “rookie picks”, though Foster being out for teh first 4 weeks doesn’t fill me with confidence.

My TE’s are fine. The next 6-8 after gonzalez are pretty much a wash, and even big Tony’s value is down some this year with the holdout. Heap looks solid, though he has to rely on Redman to get him the ball. Stevens is a rookie gamble, but what the hell. Would I really feel better with someone like Dilger or Furia?

K
Wilins will rack up the points. I’ll pick up a backup from the wire eventually.

D
Cowart is a big question mark. Urlacher is as studly as they come. Patton is solid. Sharper is a good insurence policy in case Cowart tanks.

So, feedback? Who should I drop when it’s time to grab a kicker? Who’s going to break my heart? Who want to poke holes in my hopes and make me feel bad?

2

IMO…I love leagues like these that have more flex spots than they do required spots (WRT RBs and WRs).

Now, I love these because: It can completely kill the idea of the “Stud RB” being required to win. As people are grabbing up RBs you can get one of the big 3 WRs, and if you are lucky you can get a Joe Horn/David Boston in the next round, and then a Keyshawn/Eric Moulds in the next round. Then in the 4th round grab a JStewart/JaLewis/Staley type RB – someone who will give you reliable middle tier production. Then in the nex round you can still (hopefully) get a Chambers/Booker type WR, and then grab a Trent Green / McNair type of QB. Then fuill up with RBs that have a great chance of racking up good #s – the Barlow/JWells/Duckett types. By this point in the draft all those people who were poking each other in the eyes to get RBs will be picking the scraps to fill their WR spots. It seems that every FF league in the world now goes apeshit on RBs, leading to picks that are really a waste, just because you feel you need to get a RB before they are gone. In these flex leagues, let them go. You can put together a rocking team full of stud WRs … and while some people will try it, many are scared just bcause everyone has this mindset that you need to have 2 great RBs. In many leagues (starting lineup dependant) you do, but in the ones where you don’t, relax and load up on talent at WR.

Anyway, looking at your team:

Your defense players rock. You should be set for the year there, barring injury. I like your RBs, especially for a 12 team league. Fred Taylor could be the big unkown on your team, as he will be for most teams this year. If he blows up you should have a top spot in your league. A lot of people are afraid of him, but I think I am going to take a gamble on him if he falls to me in the 4th round. (My $$ league drafts tuesday night). BTW, you did hear about Foster’s knee injury, right? Keep an eye on that. Also, In many of my leagues where I got Portis late I have been trying to trade him ASAP. There is so much hype surrounding him that you can get good value right now. I do believe he will be a solid producer, but with Mike Anderson as their “fullback”, I am steering away from any Denver RBs. Heap is going to be the man this year, and somehow he is still flying under many people’s radar. Your WRs do pose a question mark, and Terry Glenn is the wildcard. Who knows what he is going to do? Cry and whine and ride the pine, or blow up? Either situation is very possible. Culpepper is MONEY this year. I think you have a very solid team. I would probably drop Danny Waffle when it comes time to take your kicker. He will be decent but you have a great and a good QB already.

Overall I like your team for a 12 man league. Your success this season will likely ride on Fragile Freddy and Sherry Glenn’s shoulders.

3

Wow, there’s a lot of Florida blood on your roster:

Culpepper: U. of Central Florida
Wuerffel: U of Florida
Pittman: Tampa Bay Bucs
Taylor: U of Florida
Portis: U of Miami
Chambers: Miami Dolphins
There’s probably one or two others that might have played college ball in Florida, but I wasn’t sure. And you mention Dilger, another Buc, as a possibility at tight end. I think you just want to be able to see your guys play on local TV. Now what you really need is Marshall Faulk :wink:

4

If you had first pick for kicker, I think ya should have gone with Vinatieri.

Also, while you don’t have him down starting, Glenn is a poor choice. While extremely talented, he has a bad attitude, and is frequently injured.

Overall, though, it looks good. Holmes is an iffy choice–last year may have been a fluke (though he’s always been fairly solid), but if not, you’re gonna get major mileage out of him.

5

I did hear about Foster, but there’s no ligament damage and he should be back around week 3. Plenty of time for me to figure out if he’ll be valuable for the stretch run. Glenn and Taylor are definitely the wildcards, but I think I’ll be in great shape if even one of them plays to his physical potential.

I really like the upside of Chambers, and Galloway looks fully recovered. If only he had a QB who could throw the ball.

Shibb Florida is football central. No fantasy team can afford to ignore the swamp rats.

Myrr I don’t think Holmes is iffy at all. He has consistenetly outplayed his competition through years as a backup. He may not match his numbers from last year, but I will be very surprised if he doen’t come close. As for kickers, it’s always a toss up, but I’ll stick with a consistent performer who plays for the most explosive offense in the league (3 years running).

6

Hmm, here’s my take.

I really think Culpepper and Minnesota’s O as a whole will struggle this year. Moss will be the go-to guy for sure, but he’s damn near the only weapon, and as such will be a huge target for coverage. Bennett didn;t really impress me last seaosn to spread the load, and I expect a Culpepper injury this year. He takes alot of hits, and their O line is real thin. Also remember that they play the Bears and GB defenses twice.

Wuerffel is a steal as a third back up, and I’d pencil him in as my #2 off the bat.

You have trouble at TE, Heap and the entire Raven’s offense is going to suck. I do think that Stevens will be a nice sleeper though, but that’s a gamble.

At RB, I see your biggest problems. I don’t have much faith in that KC offense, and Holmes and Green are no Faulk and Warner. I believe that last year was a fluke, I think he’ll be a solid preformer, but not the stud RB alot of people peg him as. He’ll put up second back numbers, but you need more than that. Taylor will get hurt, its nearly certain. I was at their last preseason game and frankly, Stacey Mack was much more effective against the Bears first team D. In any way, Taylor isn’t the player he was that rookie year, and even if healthy won’t put up big numbers on this horrible team. I’m not sure what to expect of Pittman, other than he’s gonna be in a 2-back system. And since I have Alstott on my team, you can imagine what my hopes are for Pittman. The upside however is the backups, I see Portis coming in on third downs and goalline, and eventually stepping in to get the bulk of the carries this season. Foster will get alot of touches, but the team is so poor I don’t expect much. If this were a keeper league, it’d be special.

Now to the WRs, you obviously put most of your eggs in the RB/QB basket, and after my opinion of how that turned out, you can imagine the WR core doesn’t fill me with confidence for you as a team. Chambers is very inconsistent, and Fiedler won’t give him enough easy opportunites to settle in. McCaffery should be starting without question, and he’ll probably pick up where he left off 2 years ago. Glenn will be a solid flex player, but I wouldn’t hope for much from Galloway. The Dallas passing game is real thin, and even as the #1 option, he won’t get alot of scores.

The defense is tough to judge based without knowing the scoring. You have no secondary players, and usually a stud saftey is a great addition when INTs and pass defenses are scored. If Archuleta is available take him over Patton. Urlacher is a no-braner and might carry your D. Besides that, its tough to gauge.

There’s my $0.02.

7

Thanks for the feedback.

I disagree strongly with your assessments of Culpepper and the Minnesota O (but that’s what makes this game fun). It’s their defense which will still suck, and that usually means big numbers for the QB (especially since I agree with your assessment of Bennet).

I doubt that Holmes will match his numbers of last year, but I don’t expect him to fall very far. Remember, he had almost no touches through the first 2-3 games last season, yet still put up amazing stats. Slightly lowered productivity over 16 games will be just fine with me.

Taylor will get injured, but if it’s a 2-4 game injury rather than a season long injury I’ll be quite happy. I’ve watched all 3 of teh Jags preseason games (well, the starters’ portions) and he has looked very good to me. One game at a time, is my motto, and for now Taylor is as studly as any ack not named Faulk. When he breaks, I’ll adjust accordingly.

Pittman is a wild card, but I expect him to put up major yardage even if Alstott steals some TDs. Frankly, one Mike has looked slow and stoppable this preseason while the other has looked explosive and fragile. Flip a coin.

I didn’t devalue WR, that’s just where this funky autodraft placed me. I drafted low in both conferences for wideout. Chambers is a risk, but he either scored or went over 100 yds in 4 out of 7 games once he became a starter. Considering the normal rookie receiver learning curve, I have high hopes for him this year. If Glenn ever gets on the field, he’ll put up solid numbers with Favre. If not, then I drop him for a backup kicker. Galloway plays Houston in week 1. I don’t expect him to be a regular starter.

Of course the Ravens will struggle this year. I am surprised that so many people think a TE’s numbers are strongly tied to explosive offensive performance, but I’m happy to be the contrarian on that score. I don’t expect him to be Tony Gonzalez, but I think he can easily match teh type of numbers that Jay Riemersma put up for some mediocre Bills offenses.

On defense, I value tackles over interceptions. INT numbers are wonderful, but they are also very unpredictable year-to-year. It is unusual for a defender to be among the league leaders 2 years running. Tackles are reliable: 100+ this yyear euals a good chance for 100+ next year. For the record, though, I do have a safety on my squad (Sharper). I amy well drop Patton, but I am curious to see how he fares now that Edwards has left town. He might thrive with additional responsibilities (or he might suffer without he help). Archelueta is gone, but I might pick up Biekert. I see good things for him behind Parella and Adams.

Thanks for your $.02. I obviously am looking with more hopeful eyes, so anoter persepctive is good.

8

I agree with Omni in that your RBs are your biggest weakness. Looks like a Sanbox league to me, and depth at RB in Sandbox is what wins games. They are much more consistent than WRs, and much more scarce. I’d try to get Stacey Mack to backup Taylor, Olandis Gary, and Jonathan Wells, if available.

On defense, it looks pretty solid. Make sure to check your bye weeks.

9

It is indeed a sandbox league.

Jonathon Wells? Perish the thought. If I wanted a mediocre back on a bad team I’d trade for Anthony Thomas. If Wells breaks 600 yds this year I will be surprised. Olandis Gary will leach touches from Portis in the early games, but he is on the downside after 2 serious leg injuries. The Broncos have seen that before, and even he admits that he is not 100% right now.

I feel fine with Holmes-Pittman as my top 2 backs. Taylor is gravy for as long as he produces. By the time he is injured, Portis should be the established stater in Denver (or perhaps Foster will have healed and displaced Lamar.) In a 12 team league, I don’t see anyone else with better backs 1-3.

10

Spiritus, I hope you don’t mind me doing this…if you do we can gladly cut it short and start a new thread. It’s just that there are already a lot of FF threads, figured I could use an active one.
Look at my $ draft from last night and tell me what you think. Who is going to be tough in this league? What teams you hate/like? I am team 5.

8 Team redraft – start 1 qb, 1 rb, 2 wr, 3 OFlex, 1 TE, 1 K, 1DL, 1LB, 1 DB, 1DFlex

Scoring:
Pass 1/20, 6 pt TDs, INTs -2
Run/Rec 1/10, 6 pt TDs, FUM -2
Def: Sack 3, INT 4, tackle 1, Fum Rec. 3
Team 1

QBs: Bledsoe, Vick
RBs: SDavis, EGeorge, ESmith, Trung, WGreen
WRs: TOwens, THolt, TGlenn, PPrice, Krobinsons, AFreeman
TEs: CLewis
K: Mare
DL: VHolliday
LB: Urlacher, RLewis, MBarrow
DB: Klassiter, SWilliams

Team 2

QBs: Warner, Brady
RBs: CMartin, CGarner, TJ Duckett, Jamal Anderson
WRs: DBoston, IBruce, BSchroeder, QIsmail, ARandel El, TTaylor
TE: TGonzo, JRiemersma
K: Longwell
DL: TBrackens
LB: SCowart, MPatten
DB: LMilloy, TLaw

Team 3:

QBs: Griese, McNAbb, Brees
RBs: Faulk, Hearst, Bettis, WDunn
WRs: RSmith, JSmith, TBrown, JRice, OGadsden,
TEs: Chamberlin, McMichael
K: Peterson
DL JAbraham
LB: DEdwards, EHolmes, MJones, ZThomas
DB: TVincent

Team 4

QBs: Culpepper, Wuerffel, Matthews
RBs: Dillion, TJones, Portis, DFoster, KBarlow
WRs: Moss, KeyJohnson, DJackson, JMorton, KDyson, WJackson
TEs: FJones
K: Vanderjagt
DL: JTaylor
LB: ASimmons, LArrignton
DB: DSharper, RHarrison
Team 5

QBs: Gannon, Stewart, BJohnson
RBs: PHolmes, AThomas, DMcAllister, FTaylor, MPittman
WRs: MHarrison, MBooker, HWard, JGalloway, KMcCardell, AzHakim
TE BFranks, EJohnson
K Janikowski
DL LGlover
LB KBell, TSpikes, RMorris
DB SKnight

Team 6

QBs: Garcia, Green
RBs: Alexander, RWilliams, Bennett, THenry, LSmith
WRs: Moulds, DMason, AToomer, MMuhammad, Dalexander, PWarrick
TEs: Pollard, Sharpe
K: Wilkins
DL: Winstrom, HDouglas
LB: HNickerson, RMcKinnon
DB: RBarber

Team 7

QBs: Farve, Brooks
RBs: AGreen, Tomlinson, ASmith, JStewart
WRs: Horn, TimBrown, KevJohnson, LColes, JThrash, Finneran
TEs: Heap, Shockey
K: Elam
DL: Strahan
LB: ChadBrown, DBrooks, JTrotter, JSeau
DB: RGriffith
Team 8

QBs: Manning, Fiedler, MCNair
RBs: Edge, TBarber, DStaley, JamLewis, OGary
WRs: RGardner, CChambers, EMcCaffrey, CConway, JGaffney,
TEs: Wycheck, Walls
K: Akers
DL: LLittle, KVonOelHoffen
LB: KBrooking, LFletcher
DB: CFuller

11

The more the merrier. From first glance, your league seems to heavily favor yardage studs and QB’s. A 200 yard passing game is mediocre, but results in teh same points as a hundred yard rushing/receiving game. Likewise it takes only 60 yds to offset one TD. Defensive stats seem pretty standard, except that INT’s are favored for some reason. I’m not sure why an INT should be worth more than a fumble recovery, or why no points are awarded for forced fumbles, but it is what it is. Also, 8 teams means that everyone has really good players; it takes GREAT players to win. Given that, my no deep thoughts reaction is:

Team 1:
QBs - Merely good
RBs - 2 very good, but on the downhill. The rest not even very good.
WRs - 2 great, 2 flakes, 2 second bananas
TEs - who cares. In an 8 team league you will all have someone productive. Unless the TE is great, he becomes a null factor.
K - See above, with the added complication that predicting kicker performance is like throwing darts.
DL - Merely good
LB - 2 great, 1 merely good
DB - Hell if I know, predicting interception results is even less certain than predicting kickers. Unless you get a tackling stud safety, you’re just rolling the dice.
Chances: slim to none.
Team 2:
QBs: Great
RBs: 1 Great, the rest not
WRs: 2 great, 1 merely good, the rest wastes of roster space.
TE: Great if he plays, obviously. Might be none at all if Riemersma gets cut.
K: (see above)
DL: Not great
LB: 1 great if he stays healthy
DB: Tackling studs. I like 'em.
Chances: With this scoring system Warner, Martin, Boston, and Bruce pretty much guarantee a chance, especially if Gonzo suits up. Depth is a concern, though. In order to full out 6 position spots he’ll have to play Ducket, taylor Schroeder or Randel El (2 during bye weeks). By itself not damning, but a single injury could ruin his year.

Team 3:
QBs: Great + quality backup
RBs: 2 great (though injury concerns) 1 excellent and one risky backup.
WRs: 2 great (3 if Smith reports) + 1 very good
TEs: very good, on paper, though I personally do not like Chamberlain
K: (see above)
DL very good
LB: 1 great
DB: tackle stud
Chances: If Jimmy Smith plays, and his starters stay healthy, he will be tough to beat. McNabb + Faulk + Hearst + Smith + Smith + Brown with Rice as a reserve is tough to beat. Defense is a little thin in the LBs. Other than Thomas, there isn’t a prime stud to be found. Still, that offense looks scary.

team 4:
QBs: Great w/scary backups
RBs: 1 great, one bad, 3 potential but never proven.
WRs: 2 great, 3 very good
TEs: wash
K: great, but I could be wrong
DL: great
LB: 1 great, one nearly great but uneven
DB: tackle studs who also intercept. Love 'em
Chances: Since he only needs one back, he can ride his receivers and studly defense. The only problem is both receivers and defense tend to be more uneven than studly backs. Plus, even his great back has a history of being very uneven. Very dangerous – when teh pieces click he’ll beat anyone, but I think there will be too many games where the pieces grind for him to take the championship. Has better odds if your league does a 2-stage playoff, since that rewards a team on a hot streak.

Team 5 (our heroes):
QBs: Greatish, good backups
RBs: 3 great (though one HUGE injury risk) 2 with great potential.
WRs: 1 great, 1 very good, 3 solidly good, one huge question mark
TE 2 very good
K Bad kicker. Bad. Get another one as soon as possible.
DL Great, if he remembers that he’s supposed to be
LB all 3 on teh verge of greatness
DB tackle stud plus interceptions. Yeah!
Chances: Very good, I would say. Gannon is just shy of great, in my book, so you will be outgunned by the best QB’s but not by much. Your RB’s are very strong, especially for as long as Taylor is healthy. Both Pittman and McCallister have great upsides in your yardage league, and Priest Holmes was practically made for it. Harrison is a stud in any league, and both Booker and Ward have very good yardage potential. You can potentially go 8 deep in position players without scraping up someone merely good. Obviously, if Pittman and McCallister both flop and taylor goes out in week 2 again, your outlook dims significantly. I like your D a lot, Spikes is playing for a huge contract next year and Sammy Knight has potential explosion written all over his bad self.

Anything can happen, especially with Taylor, Pittman, and McCallister, but I think your team is very strong. Except for kicker. Ditch the polish headcase and find someone unexciting but reliable.

Team 6:
QBs: Great w/scary backup
RBs: 2 great, 3 hope you never have to rely on them
WRs: Nobody great. Nobody even reliably almost great. I like Moulds, but even he’s no sure thing.
TEs: wash
K: great
DL: 2 nearly great
LB: 1 should be great, on should be retired
DB: great, but only if the turnovers and sacks come (risky for a DB)
Chances: Not great. Garcia, Williams, and Alexander are a great nucleus, but not enough to round them out.

(Have to run, I’ll hit the final teams later. Basically, I like your chances. Start thinking about ways to spend your money.)