Fantasy Football Draft

In My Humble Opinion
1

OK, all of you hard-core fantasy leaguers. What’s your top ten list look like? What are your sleeper picks? This years busts?

My top ten
[list=1] [li]Brett Favre[/li][li]Marshall Faulk[]Peyton Manning []Marvin Harrison []Terrell Davis []Jimmy Smith []Edgerrin James []Antonio Freeman []Kurt Warner []Steve McNair[/list=1][/li]Sleeper: depends on your league, of course, but I like Greg Clark TE 49ers

Bust: Cris Carter WR MIN : needs an accurate QB to drop it over his shoulder and Culpepper ain’t it.

well, opinions? your lists? Let’s see 'em!

*this information is for recreational purposes only, and should not be used for wagers of any kind

2

To answer a question like this most helpfully, one would need to know league size (one person’s late round sleeper might be another’s starting running back if the league size is different) and scoring rules (yardage? touchdowns?)

I don’t have my football stuff handy, and haven’t had my draft yet (so my scouting isn’t finished and I’m not up to snuff), but I’d say that Fred Taylor would be in my top 10–I expect him to have a very big year.

Sleeper? Depending on the size of the league, maybe Jamal Lewis (especially if it’s a perpetual league–talk up his injury). I think Jake Plummer could come back big. Monitor the New England RB situation–J.R. Redmond could win the job and be a solid late round pick.

3

Here’s my top ten, but I keep flopping the order around:

  1. E. James, RB, Colts
  2. K. Warner, QB, Rams
  3. P. Manning, QB, Colts
  4. M. Faulk, RB, Rams
  5. F. Taylor, RB, Jags
  6. B. Favre, QB, Packers
  7. B. Johnson, QB, 'Skins
  8. T. Davis, RB, Broncos
  9. M. Harrison, WR, Colts
  10. R. Moss, WR, Vikings

BUSTS: Tony Banks, Dorsey Levens, Ty Wheatley, Ricky Watters, Anyone on SF 49ers

SLEEPERS: Ron Dayne, Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, JJ Johnson, Bubba Franks, Plaxico Burress

SUPER SLEEPER - Stacey Mack

4

You’re correct of course, DRY, so for the sake of argument we’ll say a standard 10 team league with TD and yardage points and mandatory starting TE.Fred Taylor makes #11 on my list, only because of his injury history. If that guy can stay healthy, he’ll tear it up. My draft is in three weeks, and I just got started last week, so I’m sure my numbers will change.

Gazoo, our lists are pretty similar in players named. Moss is #13 with me, but may move up. He doesn’t need the accuracy that Carter demands so he may flourish with Culpepper. I’ll probably look like a fool for not ranking James higher, but I fear the dreaded “sophomore slump”.

This will be my 6th fantasy season in a 12 team league ( 2-time Champion, playoffs every year but one ). So, come on and give me your HO of my top 10. Who have I missed? What have you heard from your team’s camp?

5

If your #11 is going to be a TE, do not overlook Tony Gonzalez on the Chiefs.

Also, I really don’t see Kurt Warner repeating last year’s performance. He’ll be good, but not a top 3 pick.

I haven’t joined a league yet, so I haven’t made my top 10, but otherwise, that looks great.

6

It’s an interesting year. I’d say that you can make a legitimate claim for 5 or 6 guys being a valid first overall selection.

Here’s what I’ve got. I’ll try to defend them. Our league is based on scoring and yards. We also get six points for a TD that a quarterback throws, which is huge. (It’s Sandbox.com, FWIW.)

1 Steve McNair
2 Peyton Manning
3 Marshall Faulk
4 Edgerrin James
5 Kurt Warner
6 Brett Favre
7 Randy Moss
8 Isaac Bruce
9 Ricky Williams
10 Terrell Davis

McNair – yes, he will get hurt. (Heck, Fisher gave him the day off yesterday for his shoulder). However, I see his offensive production rising this year – Carl Pickens was added to an already strong mix of Thigpen, Dyson, George and Wycheck. With Runyan going to the Eagles, I think that no longer having a shutdown tackle back there will increase the times where he takes off running – which may anger Fisher & company, but is good for me. Taking his boys to one yard of overtime in the Super Bowl last year has to increase his confidence. I like the players around him and his ability to run. So, he’s my #1.

Peyton looks good for all the right reasons as well. The guy just doesn’t get knocked out of games and has his head on straight. His mental grasp of the game might be the best in the NFL. If he’s chucking passes to the Edge and Marvin all season long then he’s money.

I like Faulk over James only because if a starting QB goes down, Faulk is not affected. I don’t expect Manning to get hurt, but if he does he’s got Hobert or whoever backing him up. Not great. Faulk has Trent Green if Warner gets hurt – no dropoff whatsoever.

James – I suspect defenses will try to shut him down and let Marvin & the rest of the Colts’ receiving corps beat them. Easier said than done, I think. But he would get me points rushing and receiving and you have to like that.

Warner – 41 touchdowns is not a fluke. I think that if he does struggle, Martz would be more than happy to plug his boy in there for the rest of the season, but I think for at least next season Warner will still be the man. His game is based on being able to make quick reads and his incredible release speed – how do you solve that? Especially with guys like Pace and Timmerman providing solid pass protection.

Favre – his injured thumb worries me, but there’s nobody out there when the game is on the line that I’d rather have. You know that if there are two minutes left in the game and he’s down you can probably add another 60 yards and a TD pass to the point totals he gives you.

Moss – Culpepper doesn’t need to chuck sixty-five yard bombs like Cunningham did. Moss will be able to provide hella stats simply through YAC. He’s too good, too talented, too much to slip to the second round. And Culpepper certainly didn’t look awful last week in pre-season action.

Bruce – If the Rams are playing well, then I suspect Bruce’s history of nagging injuries will disappear like they did last season. Also, since he is evidently superhuman and all he has to do is invoke the name of the Lord for his superpower, you don’t have to worry about him legitimately being injured for any length of time in say, a car crash or something.

Ricky Williams – This is just because I am a Saints fan and I will probably pay more in a trade than I would if I just drafted him normally. Realistically, he’s probably a low second rounder. He will still touch the ball 25-30 times a game and has, on paper, a newfound passing game that has the chance at stopping teams from putting 9, 10, 15 or 18 guys in the box like they did last year. He proved last year that even if he does get hurt, he’ll still be out there.

Terrell Davis – I think his production from 98 will go down slightly since Olandis Gary proved he can step it up, but again, when healthy, TD is an absolute force that no-one’s been able to solve.
Sleepers: Bubba Franks, Tony Banks, David Boston, Chad Morton, John Abraham (if you do defensive players)

Busts: Patrick Jeffers, Jeff Garcia, Joey Galloway

7

For a league where each team drafts an equal number of running backs and wideouts, I’m not sure that I’d list anywideouts in my top 10. My reasoning is that the dropoff after “x” top running backs is much more severe than the dropoff after “x” top wideouts (whether “x” is 10, 20 or 50) because there tends to be one productive RB per team (I realize a few, like TB and OAK, have more than one). However, just about every team has more than one good receiver.

I suppose I could make a case for Moss, Freeman, Smith, etc, but low in the top 10.

As for Taylor, I don’t know how true the rumors are, but I hear he’s been watching his diet, and his diet (the types of food he eats, not how much) was considered a reason why he cramped up so much last year. Again, I don’t know how true the rumors are, but he’d make my top 10, easy.

As for Holy Avenger’s pick of Ricky Williams, I agree, but only if Jeff Blake keeps the opposing defenses honest, with respect to guarding against the pass. I like Blake, always have, but I read that the West Coast offense is NOT a good match for Blake (likes to throw deep, West Coast offense features reads, and the short pass).

8

All very good points. Most leagues are weighted toward the RB’s anyway and I wouldn’t be surprised to see 8 or more go in the 1st round of my draft.

I think Fred Taylor’s stock is dropping because of the decimation of the Jag’s offensive line. He’s become a 2nd rounder in my rankings not because he doesn’t have the talent but because I don’t know if he’ll have the holes.

I’ve recently become a convert of the Value-Based Drafting concept, in which positions become much more important. The result is that I have kickers (for example) rated much higher than in previous years. I’m sure that I’ll be laughed at on draft day, but hopefully I’ll be laughing all the way to the bank.

And if anyone read this far, Rondell Mealy RB GB, has had an outstanding camp and is my new sleeper pick. (that doesn’t mean ‘draft him in the 2nd round’, BTW, but take a flyer on him in the late ones)

9

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I like Faulk over James because he’s a proven force from the backfield. I know playing it safe doesn’t win championships, but I’ve been successful by waiting out 2nd year players. (I’m not in a keeper league BTW, in that case James becomes more valuable)

His ability to receive helps keep the defenses from shutting him down, not to mention the great offense surrounding him. Edge is going to be great, I’m just not sure it will be this year, still he’s in my top ten.

Early season reports say his thumb is fine, of course they said that a lot last season too. The reason I have him so high is that he appears much happier with the new coach, and all of his receivers are in camp. A happy Favre is a dangerous force indeed. The problem last season, apparently, was that he wasn’t reading his recievers in order and that’s been corrected.