I’ve been talked into joining a fantasy football league. I’m a casual fan at best. I like watching the games, and I follow the Redskins, but I’m not an expert by any means. It doesn’t help that I often work Sundays. That being said, it’s a friendly league with a lot of casual fans. I’m mostly doing it because I’m friends with the people involved.
Still I’d like to do well, or at least not make a fool out of myself. Any general hints? I probably will get one of those massive magazines for research.
If you’re thinking of spending money on a magazine, I would suggets you grab something that is up to date, like the US Today Sports Weekly Guide. A lot of those magazines are written in July, before training camp even starts, and are out of date on issues like who is getting the most reps, whose injured, whose starting, and all that.
If you’ve got time to devote to it, it’s not a bad idea to keep up to date on what’s going on by reading the local papers for the teams you’re interested in. If you’re thinking Martz will turn Chicago’s offense into a juggernaut, read the Chicago papers and see who is doing well and who isn’t.
And don’t get too hung up on what experts say. Draft the team that you like. It makes it a lot more fun if you’re rooting for guys you like.
Any other more specific questions, feel free to ask.
I’ve been working on-and-off on a Dummies Guide type thing for FF.
Here’s some general pointers:
Learn the scoring system and rules. Depending on the scoring system and number of position players that you need that your league is using, the value of different players and positions will change.
Availability: There are only so many valuable players available at each position. RB’s are the rarest.
Value: Each player is projected to score X number of points for your team over the course of a season. What really separates the men from the men-looking things is the ability to evaluate the team the player plays on and making better and more accurate predictions than anybody else. Imho, the key is the ability to evaluate the offensive line. This year, for example, I would predict Donovan McNabb to have about 50% of his average career stats because of the quality of the o-line in Washington.
A key idea in terms of value is the idea of “tiers.” There are usually only a handful of “top tier” (sometimes referred to as “tier 1”) players at each position. In round four of the draft for 2010, for example, you will probably have to choose between a top tier TE, a 2nd tier WR, a 3rd tier RB, or a top tier QB. Obviously, you’ll take the QB (hehe, let’s see where the comments go. :D) You want as many top tier players as you can, and you want to avoid as many of the bottom tier players as possible (players who are very unlikely to see significant play time except for injury, like the backup WR 3 or a rookie QB.)
As you get used to the idea of tiers, you should also be aware of the difference between tier levels. This year, for example, there’s not a lot of difference between the top WR’s and 2nd tier WR’s. On the other hand, the top RB’s will probably score twice as much as the second tier, and the top TE’s will probably score 10X as many points.
ADP (Average Draft Position): On draft day, you want to grab the best players possible in each round. However, should you take the #1 WR now, or should you take the #2 QB now and wait for a WR? As stated above, mock drafting is essential to get a feel for how drafts will run. I prefer to use fantasy football calculator, since now they have a deal with Football Guys.com to get free evaluation of your team.
Information: you actually need to study two games: football and fantasy football. This site seems decent on actual football knowledge. However, for fantasy football information, you need to go to a site dedicated to it (here, the discussion is mainly centered around which leagues members are playing.) I would recommend fantasy football toolbox. They have a lot of tools for beginners, including rankings, cheat sheets, etc. They are slightly better than Yahoo! experts, but their statistical model does have some aberrations. The forum though is very good.
For example: Football teams generally take Monday off after a game, and practice Tuesdays and Thursdays (and sometimes Saturdays.) The Thursday practice report is vital to setting your roster for the weekend. If a player who has an injury doesn’t play on Thursday, there’s about a 60-80% chance they won’t play on Sunday.
Luck: I stopped playing FF in 2004 or so because of the luck factor. That year, five of my top 6 picks were lost for the season due to injury. However, my first year playing FF, randomly picked Peyton Manning the year he set the record and Randy Moss. The computer auto-picked Emmitt Smith (when he was a cardinal) and Antonio Gates. I was smashing everybody in my league with no clue what I was doing (I had both Bettis and Staley playing at the same time.)
Thanks for all the advice so far. Since this is my first time doing this, I’m going to play it safe and stick with obvious picks, hopefully getting Chris johnson or Adrian Peterson in the first round. It’s a pretty friendly league with a small buy-in, so I just want to have a good time.
I’m thinking of going with RB’s first, then QB’s, then receivers, depending on how the draft order goes.
You’re not likely to get either one unless you have one of the top 3 picks, and even then, you need somebody in your league crazy enough to take Ray Rice or MJD first. Those 4 are usually gone in the first 4 picks unless you have a crazy New Orleans or Green Bay fan in the league.
Just be careful. I’ve been in many leagues where there’s a person who drafts on name recognition only, and they end up with a good team…for 2005. You can also go with a published cheat sheet and just follow that.
Do not go into a draft with that sort of game plan. I’d suggest getting a good ranking of players, and simply go with best available for the first 5 or so rounds. Saying “I’m going to get a QB in the 2nd round” or similar locks you into too rigid of a strategy - you need to be flexible.
Sign up for a mock draft or two over at mockdraftcentral.com. It’s free, and the experience is invaluable.
One important rule that people often overlook is don’t get too enamored with players from your favorite team. Only select players that have proven fantasy value first. As to your order, I do think its a good idea to have a loose and fast gameplan, but I would replace QB’s with WR’s on your list. Good fantasy QB’s (not Brees or Manning of course) can be had in later rounds. Somebody like Matt Ryan. You don’t really need elite production at the QB spot, just consistently decent and reliable production. Most leagues give you better yardage points for rushing and receiving yards over passing yards as well.
I just drafted in one of my 2 leagues yesterday. Let me chime in here with a couple points.
You’re entering Fantasy football in kind of a strange transition era. There are really only about 10 RBs who are the clear-cut, uncontested #1 RB on their own team. IMHO, this makes getting one of those guys in the first round essential.
The logical conclusion to that first point, is that there are more legitimately draftable RBs than ever before, because so many teams have a 2 or 3 man rotation at RB. This means there are some good back-up options going in the later rounds.
It used to be Tony Gonzalez and then a bunch of useless garbage at the TE position. Now, in a 12-team league, everybody should get at least a pretty good TE, so you don’t have to jump on one early.
Like ReticulatingSplines said, take your kicker last. Neither you, nor anyone else has any idea who will be the best K in the league this year, and the difference between the best and the 12th best is only about a point a game anyway.
Don’t be the last guy in a run. If 5 of the last 6 guys have just taken a Defense in the 8th round, don’t panic and take a Defense. Grab that good sleeper WR you had your eye on, and take a D later.
Don’t get drunk until after the draft is over. Some moron in my league took Ben Tate in the 4th round. Ben Tate would have been a nice pick there, were he not injured and out for the season.
Above all, have fun with it. As a casual football fan, you’ll be amazed at how much more interesting you find a mid-season game between the Raiders and Browns. Before, you’d completely ignore it. Now, you’ll be on the edge of your seat in the 4th quarter begging Michael Bush or Jerome Harrison to break off a 20 yard TD. Enjoy the season.