The first annual "Help ASoA keep from crippling embarrassment in his Fantasy Football League" thread

The Game Room
1

Hey guys! So I’m a lurker much more than a participant but I’ve been around long enough to respect your collective expertise and I could really use some collective-ish expertise-y advice here.

Whatdya say, Dopers? Help a brotha out?

So I’ve been coerced by my workmates into joining my first ever Fantasy Football league (through Yahoo Sports, if it matters). Until now, my only experience with Fantasy Football has been limited to occasionally nodding my head in conversations and making pithy remarks like “why yes, indeed that IS a strong roster” or “I too would’ve selected that player to start” before quickly changing the subject. I’m not entirely illiterate when it comes to football, but grossly inexperienced in actual fantasy play and the people I’m playing with have been ostensibly playing for a while. My draft is tomorrow (Saturday) night and I know enough to understand that it will essentially make or break my season.

I know the basic idea: Good players = many points = winning team = undying adulation of co-workers and hordes of groupies fighting to show me their naughty bits*

*could happen…

I do have a vague pulse on the league as it relates to actual success on the field but if I understand correctly, that doesn’t necessarily translate into fantasy points. I’ve read up a bit on the basics of fantasy; looked up a few mock boards and I have a rudimentary understanding of the rules.

I do have quite a few questions, however.

Most sites I’ve visited seem to be in agreement that running backs add the most value, as they have the most potential to score points but I’m unclear to what extent. At what point do I take a good receiver or QB over a merely above-average RB, and how many of each is considered “standard”? Most teams seem to have adopted the “run by committee” approach to the running game anyway so wouldn’t that dilute their value below a QB who (unless you’re running some odd Tebow offense) will be the sole player at that position? How high would I want to reach for a kicker or defense? How should I determine who to best fill my “bench”? Do I maintain a “war room” approach and take an active hand in the draft or would I be better served to sort my players in advance and let yahoo auto-draft for me (as presumably they know better than I who the more effective players are)?Any other advice you would give yourself if you could go back in time and supervise your first fantasy draft?

I know a lot of these questions will vary based on the details of my league so here’s as much as I know.

It’s a “performance-based” scoring system, as opposed to a touchdown-only league.

It’s not a keeper league, just single-season.

I can have 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 1DEF, and I have 6 Bench Spots (although my empty roster only has 9 spaces so I don’t know what that’s about).

I’m not sure if mine is the standard Yahoo Fantasy scoring system, or if there is variation there but it seems to reward touchdowns equally as well as equal points to receiving and rushing yards.

Um… that’s about all I can think of. Any and all help would be greatly appreciated. Hey, I may even share my groupies (and their associated naughty-bits).

:wink:

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Oy, ok. First things first.

DO NOT, under any circumstances, DRAFT A KICKER OR DEFENSE BEFORE YOUR FINAL 2 PICKS.

Read it twice. Don’t waiver. You will be tempted, but don’t do it. The reason for this is not that they don’t score, but that they are nearly impossible to predict. A top flight Defense last year could be in the bottom of scoring this year. The positions are volatile and can be found on waivers in the season. By about week 3 the good defenses will be obvious and you can make better decisions then. Kickers will be a crap shoot all season, more or less.

Second, as for going for an RB early, the point of that is that you want to draft consistency with your first 7 or so rounds and while RBs don’t necessarily score the most points, the best ones are that magical combination of very consistent and scarce. QBs can also be very consistent, but in your league they won’t be as scarce (how many teams are in your league that changes the math a little bit.) In a non point per reception league (I am making that assumption) WRs are very TD dependent for their big points, and TDs are hard to predict. That said the yardage is fairly predictable for the top WRs and the yardage production is abundant so they don’t need to be drafted early because you can get a good producer even after several have been taken. I hope that makes sense, I am typing before coffee. TEs, with the exception of Jimmy Graham are almost as big a crap shoot as kickers, I would hold off personally unless you can get Graham in the 4th round or so, OR if there are no better options in the first 3 rounds.

And that’s where the draft get’s tricky, you have to have an idea of who the better options are. Yes, ideally you want 2 stud RBs in your first 2 rounds, but what if you are picking 12th and there aren’t any studs left by the time your pick comes up. Don’t take an RB in that case, take a stud QB or WR (again, depending on who is left). By the same token, if EVERYONE is taking QBs and they are starting to get scarce, you have to adjust your strategy to take that new scarcity into account. Depending on when you notice the run on QBs you may want to go for a QB (to get a stud) or (if the studs are gone) take advantage of all the other great players available who wouldn’t normally be around, but no matter what you need to notice and adjust.

After you get all your starters, who again should be solid players you can count on, go for high upside guys. Don’t get a consistent by mediocre player, get a guy who has the potential for greatness. Either he is a rookie, or was hurt last season, or has flashed greatness but hasn’t really put it together yet. Go get those guys to fill up your bench. Because you want those guys (and everyone else will too) you may need to grab them a couple of rounds earlier than their value would suggest, which is why you shouldn’t waste picks on things like back up QBs or picking kickers and defenses (or TEs) before you absolutely have to.

If you have time, go do a few mock drafts if for no other reason than to calm your nerves about drafting for the first time.

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Thank you! You’re right, I did have the inclination to draft a defense earlier that I probably should. I had the powerhouses from last year (HOU, DEN, SF) higher on my list but they are hard to predict, and there probably isn’t a huge point differential from top-tier to mediocre. And kickers just baffle me. Impossible to predict is right. I guess I’d be looking at teams with mild offenses who can get in the red zone but not finish off, but again, I think the point yield won’t be enough to warrant anything higher than a last or second to last pick.

As far a skill positions go, the basic consensus from what I’ve read seems to be to load up on RB’s and WR’s early (it’s not a point per reception league, I checked on that). I’m also hearing to wait on a QB as there are many decent ones unless there is a run on them in my draft. So I think I’m planning to use my order my earlier picks like this: RB, RB, WR, WR, QB, TE, WR. Am I torching myself by not picking a QB in the first two rounds? How much am I going to want a top-flight TE?

And I’m hearing a lot about sleepers. To me, that sounds a lot like trying to predict kickers and defenses, only with a slightly better upswing. If I get a late-round value it may provide trade bait later on if my roster is RB and WR heavy. Problem is, I have no clue who may provide value in a fantasy league that everyone else doesn’t already know about. Rookies, I guess. I wish I’d paid more attention in pre-season to teams other than my own…

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Personally, I would make sure that I get a top 5 QB, but that’s me and there are good arguments to be made that as long as you get one of the top 10 you will be fine. This is, counter-intuitively, more true in deeper leagues than shallower leagues. If there are 12 or more teams in your league then more teams will have lower tier QBs than have top flight QBs, in 10 or 8 team leagues you probably want a QB. I wouldn’t reach for one if there is a quality RB on the board, but if it is between a top QB or top WR I would go QB this year because I think the top QBs are that much better than the next tier down where the top WRs are more similar to the next tier. That said, there are people who would wait a lot longer than me and be totally happy with Matt Stafford as their QB1.
I would try to get a RB in both of the first 2 rounds if at all possible and get a QB in round 3 if they last that long. This goes to being flexible about the draft though. It depends on how the other guys in your league are drafting. In round three if Rodgers, Brees, and Manning are gone but AJ Green, Bryant, Thomas or Johnson are around would grab a WR. If none of them are available but Jimmy Graham is on the board I might grab him or a different QB or I might grab another RB, for example. It sort of depends.

Sleepers are tough because at this point most people all know about the same guys. That said, you should too. Go read a bunch of sleeper lists, read why they are sleepers and make up your own mind and how far you would want to reach for them. Shoot for RBs over WRs for your sleepers and then watch the waiver wire over the season, there is always a RB no one expected who makes a big splash.

5

Thank you for your insight. I very much appreciate the time and thought you put into helping me.

We wrapped up the draft and I think I did pretty well (I got an A on my draft “report card” :slight_smile: ). I took your advice and took Brees in the 3rd which I’m totally happy with, though I do feel a bit weak at RB. Those flew off the charts much quicker than I would’ve thought. Ah well, I don’t feel like I embarrassed myself which is what I was going for. I also didn’t expect the draft order to be what it was. I landed in 7th position (out of 8 teams), but they reversed each round so I’d get to pick twice in close proximity and then have to wait a while before it happened again. I may have planned differently had I anticipated that. Ah well, live and learn.

Here’s how I ended up:

QB - Drew Brees (23rd)
RB - CJ Spiller (7th)
RB - DeMarco Murray (39th)
WR- Calvin Johnson (10th)
WR- Julio Jones (26th)
WR- Hakeem Nicks (42nd)
TE - Jason Witten (55th)
DEF- Denver (103rd)
K - Sebastian Janikowski (119th)

BENCH:
RB Frank Gore (58th)
QB Sam Bradford (71st)
WR Vincent Brown (74th)
RB Montee Ball (87th)
WR T.Y. Hilton (90th)
TE Julius Thomas (106th)

I was REALLY hoping Jimmy Graham would fall to me between my 10th and 23rd pick but he got snapped up 3 picks in front of me so I felt I had to take Brees to compensate (you score, I score, sucka!). I also kinda wished I’d taken my 2nd RB a bit higher, maybe given up Julio Jones as he splits catches with Roddy White, but most of the powerhouses were off the board by then anyway. And I remembered what you said about waiver studs emerging mid-season at RB. I did reach for Montee Ball but the sleeper I was waiting for (Giovani Bernard) was taken the pick right in front of me so I was left staggering.

All in all, I’m pretty happy. There were definitely some people who knew what they were doing more so than I did but I think I kept up ok and I’m pretty excited for the season. Now I just have to figure out the waiver wire rules…

6

Nice job. Some things that I didn’t think to tell you because I didn’t know it was an 8 person league. 1) you don’t need a backup QB in an 8 person league. 2) you don’t need a back up TE…pretty much ever. If it were me I would take a look at who wasn’t drafted and if there was anyone out there that I liked at all I would drop the Bradford and Thomas for them as soon as I was able.

Yes, you will have bye weeks, but you will almost certainly be able to find guys as good as them on the waiver wire when the time comes and there will be someone on your team you will be ok with dropping at that point too.

Other than that, I like your draft a lot. Hope you have fun with the league.