Fantasy Football Sit/Start Thread, 2014

Are you an underdog in the matchup? If so, you might start Green because you have to get a big game to win the matchup, and Green’s probably more likely to give you that than a waiver guy.

Here’s my question (non-PPR league). I need to start 3 of these 4:

Alshon Jeffery @Car
Jeremy Maclin v StL
Roddy White @NYG
Percy Harvin @Was

The Yahoo projections actually have Maclin lowest by over a point, which I found a bit surprising. I’m leaning toward sitting Roddy or Harvin.

Harvin seems like an easy sit. Maclin’s dinged due to how awful Foles was last week, but I have to think that was an aberration, and he will bounce back this week. ATL could easily be in a shootout if Good Eli continues to play, so I wouldn’t bench White. (That’s the main reason I was considering Hester). And Jeffrey is your clear #1.

Yeah, Harvin is probably the safest to sit, but I think it’s pretty much a toss-up b/w all 4. Washington’s D is pretty crap.

Don’t overthink it. Keep an eye on the tone of reports about Green’s injury, but unless those sound really ominous on Saturday/Sunday, just go with him.

Ok, one more. I have to choose my second RB from:

D Brown vs NYJ
S Jackson @ NYG
Sproles vs StL

Brown hasn’t been doing much, although he’s probably guaranteed to at least produce a half-decent total. Sproles seems like more of a gamble.

Also, I currently have Gates, Roddy White, and Maclin starting, so no matter what I’d be starting two players from the same offense. I haven’t really thought much about that before - I guess it’s another variance thing. If I start two from the same team, it’s not too likely that they’ll both have huge games.

Here’s one…

DeSean Jackson or the white-hot Eddie Royal?

I have to fill four slots and my other WR options are Ruben Randle, Anquan Boldin, and Alshon Jeffery.

Eddie Royal. Not even close, given Jackson’s questionable injury tag and inconsistency. And he’s playing Seattle while Royal gets the Jets.

Borschevsky, are you PPR. It matters, as much as Sproles catches the ball. EDIT: Derp, it pays to read. I’ll answer in another post.

Now my question to the horde: Non PPR league, receiving and rushing yds the same. What is the better trade: Justin Forsett and Larry Donnell (I already have Julius Thomas) for Kelvin Benjamin and Pierre Garcon (my WR are currently Torrey Smith and Sammy Watkins.) OR

the above for the first two + Pittsburgh D FOR Emmanuel Sanders, Eric Decker, and Isaiah Crowell? I have Ben Tate already. I threw in the Pitt D because the poor bugger is having to start Dallas this week with Miami on its’ bye.

I think Yahoo tremendously overrates Forsett’s future performance and so I’d like to sell high + I already have 3 decent RB’s (Tate, Doug Martin, and Forte) so I can’t usually stick Donnell in the Flex. My other D’s are Buffalo and Philly.

Borschevsky, going off Yahoo’s projections for my league, also non-PPR, it likes Brown the best by around a point or so over Jackson, despite the hideous matchup against the Jets. Guess they figure he’s going to get a metric sh$*-ton of carries. Sproles is projected around 3 points off Brown’s pace.

Doesn’t Roddy White have a recent foot boo-boo?

Oh, and a big +1 on Varlos’s comment about checking rosters right before game time. I got screwed bad on a couple of ones this year with last-minute scratches.

He did, supposedly it’s completely healed.

Another option is Forsett & Donnell for Brandon Marshall and Golden Tate.

Thanks for indulging me, everyone.

Yep, that’s what I have too. The problem is that Brown’s been projected similarly for the last couple games, and hasn’t come close to meeting those projections.

Shocked face: I haz it.

Anyway, ESPN seems to think that Brown goes for 21 yds rushing, 20 yds receiving and no TDs. They have him rushing only 13 times, which sounds insanely low. Jackson is penciled in for 45/15 and a TD. Sproles is penciled for 35/37 and no TDs.

Gawking at Football Outsiders, I’m struck by the Giants’ decent pass defense DVOA, and so-so rush DVOA. -10.7/-11.7, 5th/15th. For the Jets, it’s about the opposite. 10.3/-21.9, 16th/10th. StL is just plain bad, but their RB pass defense is actually not too terrible. All this makes me like Jackson more than Brown. I don’t think the ATL game will get so out of hand that they abandon the run, while I think that Brown will get a lot of reps, they just won’t get anywhere. I think PHI is really going to try and establish the pass, after Foles’s abysmal performance last week. Sproles will get some of the love, but I don’t think he gets into the end zone.

This is where I attach the .jpeg of a Golden Retriever in a lab coat, with the caption, “I have no idea what I’m doing.”

Pick 3, half PPR:

Trent Richardson vs BAL
Ahmad Bradshaw vs BAL
Ben Tate @ TEN
Kenny Britt @ PHI

Do you need to hit a HR or will ‘meh’ carry the day? You could carry both RB and see if Tate wants to keep playing in the NFL or not. I have him in another league and I’m getting tired of his act.

Does anyone know who the WR1 for StL is? Is it Quick, or Britt? The Outsiders list Philly as giving up 11.6 receptions and around 95 yds per game to the #1. LOL sample size though. At least Davis is confirmed as the starter. I haven’t watched any Rams games this year; how does Britt look? Developing chemistry with Davis as an explanation for the increase in catches week to week, or something else?

Bradshaw, Britt, Tate if he’s playing, if you need a big day; both Colts, and then check if Tate’ll play if you want lower volatility. Again, cue the Golden meme.

Which DEF would you start this week?

Steelers (at Cleveland)
Giants (at Philly)
Bills (hosting New England)

I’m not really loving any of those matchups. Yahoo projects Steelers around 12, with the other two around 7. The Browns big comeback last week and the Steelers’ defensive collapse against Tampa Bay a couple weeks ago makes me very nervous about that matchup.

Definitely Steelers. Philly and NE both have potential to be explosive.

Pick two:

Forsett @TB
Welker @NYJ
Ridley @Buf
Asiata @Det

Ridley and Asiata, I guess. I’d like to see a good game from Welker this year before relying on him, and a quick scan of Jets games suggests they’re not giving up a lot of yards to slot receivers.

Welker is probably the safest option to give you 7 or 8 points, though.

At TE:
Larry Donnell (NYG) @Phi
Jordan Reed (WAS) @Ari

Obviously depends on Reed’s final status, but I’m assuming he’ll make his season debut at this point. Ari is poor against the TE, and Phi is tough, plus Donnell laid a goose-egg last week.

I know all those damnable [GAME] threads hide the real stuff, but no one has an opinion here?

Coin toss between Buf and Pit. I’d lean slightly to Buffalo at home. The over/under and favorites for each game suggest about the same amount of points from NE and Cleveland.
Don’t touch either defense in that NYG/PHI game, especially not the Giants on the road.

Forsett and Welker. Peyton will torch the Jets and Welker will be a part of it. For the RBs, I think Baltimore has the best chance of getting an early big lead and running the ball a lot.

With Beckham back and having a nice game last week for NYG, I’m staying away from Donnell this week.