DSeid
February 21, 2016, 11:24pm
1
Data harvested from this old 538 article and HuffPo current ratings. Really just for considerations.
Early stage (Jan to June) favorability ratings with winner placed on top (Favorable/Unfavorable/net):
2012
2008
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
Overall, these early-stage favorability ratings have had a mixed track record as a predictor of election outcomes. The candidate with the better net-favorable rating in the early-going won the election in 1976, 1980, 1984, 1996, and 2008. But Mr. Clinton won the election in 1992, despite making a poor first impression on voters. On the flip side, Michael Dukakis had very promising favorability numbers early in the 1988 cycle, but they deteriorated over the course of the election cycle and he took a clear defeat.
HuffPo Current
Clinton 41/53/-8
Trump 38/57/-19
The questions:
Imagining a Sander primary victory, do his numbers do a Dukakis and Kerry’s and crash under attack?
What direction do you expect everyone else numbers to go from here?
DSeid
February 22, 2016, 2:36am
2
Wrong 538 link btw, in case anyone cares. Sorry. Right one.
Do you have any articles about favorability ratings from past primaries? That article is interesting, but it’s talking about favorability ratings in the general election, and it seems like things might be different in primaries. Look at Trump; he has a pretty good chance of being the nominee and he has the worst favorability rating of anyone right now.