Final Pre-season NFL Roundup

In My Humble Opinion
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Not since Dennis Miller has a person been as imminently unqualified as I to make preseason selections and predictions. But I had a lot of fun last year with picks and since it looks as if Gazoo will be too busy to do this full time, I’ll just get the ball rolling by popping out my strawdog picks. Beat on 'em, criticize, condemn and complain, but it’s time for Pro Football and I want to hear a little chatter…

Here’s my look at each team, division, conference and how I think it might all shake out at the end. Plus, as a bonus for those who read through (or skip past) all this crap, I’ll kick off the 2002-2003 season Doper’s Pick 'Em league. This is not the same as the other Yahoo! and various orgs, just a chance for people to show off their prognostication skills right here on the SDMB.

Part I - American Football Conference

AFC East:
This may be toughest division to handicap this year. If it’s not, then it’ll be their twin, the NFC East. Last year’s NFL champions, the upstart Patriots can no longer lay claim to the title upstart. But can they repeat? Well, probably not, but they may repeat as Divisional Champions. Top to bottom this could be the toughest division in football.

New England Patriots
The Patsies of yore are gone. Brady has enough moxie and leadership skills to pace the Pats to another first place finish, if everything goes exactly right. Otherwise it could all come down like a house of cards. But these guys seem to really believe in themselves and made some good offseason moves, the best of which may have been finally jettisoning T. Glenn.
Predicted finish: 11-5

New York Jets
Herman Edwards has been quietly shoring up the Jets defense while everybody talks about how young Vinny Testaverde seems. Personally, I think it may be time to bring in Pennington, but if Vinny’s got the juice to play a full season more power to him.
Predicted finish: 10-6

Miami Dolphins
Will Ricky Williams lead them to greatness or will the Saints have the last laugh. Fiedler looked pathetic early in the preseason but may yet surprise folks. In the games I’ve seen he actually seems to be a bit of a ball hog, going for the pass when the run would do nicely. Can Chris Chambers blossom as a superstar of the caliber of Moss, Owens and company. Methinks not quite yet.
Predicted finish: 9-7

Buffalo Bills
Drew Bledsoe could be exactly what this team needed, and I could be way wrong by dropping them down so low. But I can’t pick every team in the division to go better than .500, so let’s just say that Drew get’s knocked out of some games and they stagger a bit at the end.
Predicted finish: 6-10

AFC North:
Another division that looks like it could have some parity, but this hangs largely on the fortunes of Gus Frerotte and Chris Redman, so I can’t give them the marks that the AFC East got. Still, not the softest division out there.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Can Bettis keep going like last season? Will Kordell continue up or revert to past poor form? Will Ward recover and make an impact? What will Randle El be like in the pros when the real games start? Well, I’ve got a couple of these guys on one of my fantasy squads, so I’m hoping they do well. Plus some of the Steeler fan Dopers are particularly hot blooded, so I’d better pick them to win their division.
Predicted Finish: 12-4

Cleveland Browns
If Tim Couch can’t play on Opening day will Kelly Holcombe become the most recent incarnation of Kurt Warner and Jeff Garcia? The odds are against it but you never know. Plus it’s tough for me to pick the Bengals higher than third. If they can remain strong and opportunistic on defense they could fair quite well this year.
Predicted Finish: 10-6

Cincinnati Bengals
Gus Frerotte over Jon Kitna was the right move at QB. Actually, anybody over Kitna may have been the right move. Oops, almost forgot about Akili Smith back there. Scratch that last statement, your Honor.
Actually, the Bengals, as much as I bash them, have a pretty decent squad. I don’t like Warrick but he had a decent season last year, they have a tandem of good sophomore receiver in Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmanzadeh, and other depth at skill positions. Their defense is solid if not formidable. And Corey Dillon, if he shows up to play every game and get some support in the air, is as solid a runner as they come and capable of putting up mind-boggling numbers in a given game. It just seems they never click, and although Frerotte has the skillz, he doesn’t quite have the system down yet. Expect them to start slow and get stronger down the stretch, just missing the playoffs.
Predicted Finish: 9-7

Baltimore Ravens
Lotta skill woes here, and bigs holes left via free agency. RB and QB are both big question marks, which does not a great season make. They’ve lost their genius Defensive Coordinator to the bad guys just down the road. Could be a very long year for Baltimore. Oh, how the mighty have fallen…
Predicted finish: 4-12

AFC South:
This should be the lightweight of the AFC this year. None of these teams had a better than 9-7 record last season. Now they get to beat each other up and everybody’s going to pick on Houston. The Texans will surprise a couple of teams, but don’t ask me to tell you who or when. But each expansion has steadily favored new franchise. The days of the 0-26 Bucs are long gone, aided and abetted by Free Agency and exorbitant franchise fees.

Tennessee Titans
Either the Titans or the Colts should benefit from the weakness of the division. Will it be Jeff Fischer’s mullet or the staid (some say boring) ways of Tony Dungy in the northernmost AFC Southern team? Personally, I think that Eddie George’s last year was a one off and that he will do fine this season. The bigger question mark is can Air McNair stay healthy throughout an entire season. I’m going with the Titans to come in first, but don’t be shocked if it’s the Colts.
Predicted Finish: 10-6

Indianapolis Colts
Beyond Dungy, the big question here is how will the Edge do in his first season back from a knee injury. Apparently he likes to play the mystery man and it seems that there have been better days between James and the Colts. But Dungy should have an immediate impact. The victims may be the Fantasy ballers who pick up members of Dungy’s offense expecting decent numbers out of Manning and Harrison. Even though the Offensive Coordinator remains the same, don’t expect Tony to suddenly go wild. Plus there are a lot of questions on defense that will remain for a while.
Predicted Finish: 8-8

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags are just getting old and slammed by the salary cap. They have the world’s most fragile (yet gifted) running back. They have a fragile QB. I don’t know who is at left tackle, but it’s not Tony Boselli. Of course Tony Boselli is no longer Tony Boselli, but that’s best left to the Texans. I think they’ll win some games and pull some upsets, but I’d be surprised to see this team break .500. Don’t be surprised if one of the Texans’ victories comes against the Jags.
Predicted Finish: 6-10

Houston Texans
David Carr may be a stud some day. I loved him at Fresno State. But it’s a long NFL season with a makeshift offensive line (see: Tony Boselli’s knees) and not much at receiver. Still, as said, they’ll benefit from being in a weak division and they seem to have good management, so they won’t get shut out.
Predicted Finish: 3-13

AFC West:
Again, a tough division to handicap. But I break it into haves and have-nots. The Broncos and Raiders should be the class of this division. The Chargers and Chiefs should by all rights struggle. But the Chiefs could get some breaks and end up taking it all.

Denver Broncos
Even though I’m not a Broncos fan, it’s just hard to pick against Shanahan. He is a weasely mofu, always messing with the Fantasy Coach’s head. He has a knack for making himself look like a genius (see: stud RBs no one else saw coming). But they’ve been plagued by inconsistent play and poor leadership from their QB position. Their receivers are getting long in the tooth and/or injured. Last year, after the retirement of their brilliant offensive line coach they had their first less than stellar outing at RB in years. Could Clinton Portis be the gateway to the future? Can he hold onto the ball? Will he start? My guess is that they’ll do just enough to get by a rookie coach in Oakland.
Predicted Finish: 11-5

Oakland Raiders
How important was Jon Gruden to the Raider’s success? We’ll all find out soon. Could be that they don’t even miss him. But Rich Gannon was a so-so journeyman QB before Gruden built an offense around him. Jerry Rice is in great shape but still older than me (or it seems like it). Tim Brown is also no spring chicken. And after those two I’m not a fan of their receivers. Gruden found a way for Wheatley and Garner to work together. Can Callahan do the same? (Quick, how many of you even know that the new Raiders head coach is Bill Callahan? Be honest)
Predicted Finish: 10-6

Kansas City Chiefs
So, this is supposed to be Trent Green’s big year. Sure. Who’s he going to throw to? Yeah, Gonzo is amazing, but you can’t throw to him every single down. Eddie Kinnison was an unmitigated disaster with his last two teams. Marvin Minnis, lead the returning WRs with 33 catches last year. Thirty-three is a good number when it comes on a bottle from Latrobe PA but it’s pretty sad in a reciever’s resume. Can Priest Holmes repeat his sensational year? Maybe, but I wouldn’t bet a lot of money on it. And can the defense stop the Broncos and the Raiders. At best I’d guess that they split with one of those teams and get swept by the other.
Predicted Fnish: 8-8

San Diego Chargers
Ladainian Tomilson struggled, along with the rest of the team, after a great start out of the gates. He fumbled six times, which is six times more than Jerome Bettis did. Doug Flutie finally lost out to Drew Brees, the quarterback of the future. This is a good long term move but they will pay for it early. If they can stay tough on defense and overcome a lot of turnovers then they may do better than I predict, or if the coach gets nervous and reverts to Flutie, but this shouldn’t be the Chargers’ year.
Predicted Finish: 6-10

Still to come: Part II - National Football Conference
Part III - Post-season Predictions (Going way out on a limb)

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Part II - National Football Conference

NFC East:
I don’t know what it is about the Eastern division this year, but with the exceptions of the bottom teams, I’d say it’s anybody’s division to win. And last time I thought that, the Giants won the Conference title. So take this with a grain of salt.

Philadelphia Eagles
McNabb just scares me as a QB. Maybe it’s because he was always whumping the Bucs in the playoffs. Their main loss seems to have been Jeremiah Trotter. They brought in Dorsey Levens for when Duce Staley get’s hurt, which seems to be an annual occurence. They are getting a bit deeper at wide receiver although they don’t seem to have anybody who is going to be all world. Anyway McNabb does a very good job of spreading the ball around. When he’s willing to take off and run he is very difficult to defend. And they should still be strong on defense, the loss of Trotter notwithstanding. The big questions for them have more to do with how good has their competition gotten.
Predicted Finish: 11-5

Washington Redskins
Spurrier is going to piss off some people in the NFL. You just know it. But still you have to watch. From a Fantasy aspect I expect Spurrier to piss off as many FFL owners/coaches as Shanahan. Because he’s not wed to any player. Just whoever will score him points. What makes this almost unfair is adding Marvin Lewis as Defensive coordinator. And he’s got tons of talent on his defense. The problem when Spurrier was in Gainesville was often as not the Gators would score too fast and their defense would wear down. Then they got a very good defensive coordinator in Bob Stoops and won the National Championship. I expect the Redskins to do well, but this is the NFL and I don’t expect Spurrier to hit a homerun with a ton of ex-Gators in the lineup. At least not in his first at bat. But don’t be shocked if he does.
Predicted Finish: 10-6.

Dallas Cowboys
I’ve never been a Cowboys fan, my reaction to them ranges from contempt to disdain. But they are (relatively) quietly putting together a solid football team down there. They could be a serious sleeper to win their division. If you can trust Quincy Carter. Their defense is a serious defense, I think I saw that they were third overall or against the run last year, and they just seem to get stronger. If they can keep up with Spurrier then they could shock some folks.
Predicted Finish: 9-7

New York Giants
I’m just not high on the Giants this year. They’ve lost depth at receiver, they have a mediocre RB who shows flashes of brilliance and a second mediocre RB who shows flashes of mediocrity. Barber is smallish and tends to get hurt. Dayne is biggish and tends to put people to sleep. Kerry Collins hangs onto his job, maybe because no one seems to want to take it from him. Their defense is past it’s expiration date.
Predicted finish: 5-11

NFC North
It’s not always the toughest division in football, but I sure am glad my Bucs won’t be scrapping with these guys after this season. Just to darned cold. This year it could go either way for the Pack and da Bears, but I think that a tougher schedule for Chicago turns into a division championship for the Packers. But it’s not a done deal, and the Packers have a lot of young unproven quantities in their receiver corps. Plus the one veteran is just the sort of player I would never sign. The Vikings may have the talent to go back on top, but it looks like it’s still a year or two away for the long suffering Lions fans. Maybe Barry will come out of retirement… naah.

Green Bay Packers
This may be Favre’s last big hurrah, or it could be a big flop. The defense should be stalwart, they have an easy start to the season (against Detroit, Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans) and they have home games late against Minnesota and Chicago. If their young WRs can learn the ropes early on, they should be strong down the stretch.
Predicted Finish: 12-4

Chicago Bears
They should start strong, struggle a bit in the middle, then finish strong. There last two games are home against Carolina and Tampa Bay, both games which they should win, particularly with some help from the elements. That is if any of their home games can be considered “home” in Champaign, IL. A-train is not a surprise to anyone any more, and if they don’t get the wildass luck wins that they did last year it could hurt them. That and they are still a bit unsettled at QB and receiver. But defense and special teams win games.
Predicted Finish: 11-6

Minnesota Vikings
Many sports writers are certain that this is going to be the year when Randy Moss takes it to another level. Mike Tice is certainly one heck of a salesman. I’m just not buying it. Moss is, IMHO, a gutless, self-centered coward. He is also built like a praying mantis. And Tice is going to have him running crossing routes. As loud and obnoxious as Cris Carter was too many last year, he was a tough SOB who could run the crosses. I think that someone (Brian Urlacher?) is going to knock Moss into next week when he tries this. After that happens Tice is not going to get this primadonna to run those routes. He’ll give new meaning to the term “alligator arms”. And that’ll be all she wrote. Oh, look, the Vikings play the Bears in week one. Maybe I’m being too generous in my predictions.
Predicted Finish: 8-8

Detroit Lions
Pity the poor Lions. Worst record in the league last year, and what to they get? The number 1 draft pick? No. The easiest schedule? Not anymore. In a world with 4 divisions per conference and an expansion club, finishing last ain’t what it used to be. The big question: Will another horrible season be enough to drive Matt Millen back to the broadcast booth? Apparently Randall Cunningham thinks that Mike McMahon is the second coming, or maybe something close, but most people are on a Joey Harrington watch. There’s just not much other than spirit and a morbid curiosity to recommend this team.
Predicted finish: 2-14

NFC South:
The NFC “NASCAR” division is another lesson in mediocrity. The Bucs would have “won” this division wiht a 9-7 record. This year they have face the Saints, who imploded down the stretch last season, the Falcons whose hopes now rest solely on the athleticism of Michael Vick, and the Carolina Panthers, who just promoted Rodney Peete to starting QB after a dismal preseason by Chris Weinke. Any of the first three could theoretically challenge for the crown.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’ve gotta go with Gruden to figure out a way to win this division. He’s got the talent, although the defense is showing signs of age and the lines on both sides have suffered from injuries. In theory Michael Pittman is an upgrade at RB, Aaron Stecker may be the best backup nobody’s ever heard of, and Keenan McArdell makes a nice counterpoint at WR. But the Bucs are still a bit unsettled at QB, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see Rob Johnson or even Shaun King finish out the season.
Predicted Finish: 10-6

New Orleans Saints
Which Saints are going to show up for the regular season? The team that stumbled out of the gates last year, or the one that limped home, losing their last 4 straight when they actually controlled their own destiny to make the playoffs? Some of the key characters are back, but some decent key players are gone: Willie Roaf (whose best years were likely behind him), La’Roi Glover, Ricky Williams and Willie Jackon have all moved on. They may benefit from the Williams trade, but it will be a year or two before the benefits really kick in.
Predicted Finish: 8-8

Atlanta Falcons
Michael Vick is still an unproven quantity. This year he should alternate between driving opposing defenses and his own coaches crazy. Expect the team’s fortunes to rise and fall with Vick. Likewise, TJ Duckett will not see a lot of touches since the Falcons spent so much on Warrick Dunn. I like Dunn, he seems like a great human being, but I wouldn’t want to have my running game resting solely on his shoulders. Vick’s ability to scramble may actually hurt Dunn, who does his best work when the opposition is sitting back looking for a pass. When they must guard against a breakaway running threat it will keep the outside linebackers at home.
Predicted Finish: 7-9

Carolina Panthers
Yuck. The pigeons are coming home to roost. This place is a salary cap wasteland. Chris Weinke, last year everybody’s favorite 30 year old rookie (at least for one week after they beat Minnesota), is now benched in favor of the maturity of Rodney Peete. I think my father played ball against Peete when he was with USC back in 1954. Lamar Smith looked dreadful at times last season, particularly as it wore on. The Panthers can only pray for the quick and healthy return of Deshaun Foster. Even then he’ll have to work his way into the lineup.
Predicted Finish:
1-15 (maybe 2-14)

** NFC West**:
Depending on how the Seahawks fare in their new conference, this could be the toughest division in Pro Football this year. The 49ers should be good. The Rams should still be quite formidable, although I expect them to stumble just a bit. And the Seahawks could be quite solid with Dilfer back at QB. The Cardinals have got problems on and off the field. What’s new?

San Francisco 49ers
This is their year to catch up with their divisional rivals. Mariucci and Owens have mended their fences. Garcia continues to amaze people and put up solid numbers. Their ground game is adequate, just enough to balance out the passing attack. And they’ve quietly built up a very solid defense.
Predicted Finish: 12-4

St. Louis Rams
I think there offense is going to be just a little bit off this year. They’ll miss Az-Hakim, although he won’t do that much at his new team. They have some nagging injuries amongst their second tier guys. Bruce may have lost a step. Faulk will sit out a game or two with a bum knee. Canidate will excel in one of those and fail in the other. Warner will still be Warner; this won’t be an average team, just expect the 49ers to make their move.
Predicted Finish: 11-5

Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are going to surprise some people this season. Maybe it will be because the East Coast finally gets to see them play in their late season match ups against SF and St. Louis. Maybe because everyone continues to dump on Trent Dilfer, the Rodney Dangerfield of professional quarterbacks. 19-1 in his last 20 starts. Only the Oakland A’s are better, and that’s before today’s game time. Shaun Alexander seems poised to have a fine freshman effort. They may be the best team to just not make the playoffs.
Predicted Finish: 10-6

** Arizona Cardinals**
Fortunately, we still won’t have to watch this team out East. Yes, David Boston’s a stud. But Thomas Jones is not expected to do much, and the O-line is apparently in a shambles. The defense isn’t scaring anybody either.
Predicted Finish: 4-12

Still to come: Part III - Post-season Predictions (Going way out on a limb)

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Part III - The Playoffs

**AFC Seedings: **
New England Patriots (11-5) - Division Champs (2)
New York Jets (10-6) - Wild Card (6)
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) - Division Champs (1)
Tennessee Titans (10-6) - Division Champs (4)
Denver Broncos (11-5) - Division Champs (3)
Oakland Raiders (10-6) - Wild Card (5)

NFC Seedings:

Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) - Division Champs (3)
Green Bay Packers (12-4) - Divison Champs (2)
Chicago Bears (11-5) - Wild Card (6)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6) - Division Champs (4)
San Francisco 49ers (12-4) - Division Champs (1)
St. Louis Rams (11-5) - Wild Card (5)

Playoffs Round 1:

Jets at Broncos - Jets just won’t have the gas to finish this out at Mile High and will wear down by the end.
Winner: Broncos

Raiders at Titans - Both these teams will be tired, but I give the edge to an inspired Raiders team.
Winner: Raiders

Bears at Bucs - Just one more road trip for the Bears. The Bears will have won the late season matchup in Champaign, but will not fare as well at RayJay in January.
Winner: Bucs

Rams at Eagles - It will turn into a disappointing season for the Rams as they are eliminated in the first round at the unfriendly confines of the Vet.
Winner: Eagles

Playoffs Round 2:

Broncos at Patriots - The Broncos won’t have any trouble playing in the snow. They’ll take this one on a late Jason Elam field goal. At least the Patriots made it back to the playoffs.
Winner: Broncos

Raiders at Steelers - I don’t count on any Immaculate Receptions here, just a lot of good old fashioned pounding on the line. The Raiders lose another late season heartbreaker in the cold.
Winner: Steelers

Bucs at Packers - They might as well have a sign at Lambeau: The Bucs Stop Here. In fact, I’m sure that some wag will. It won’t even be close.
Winner: Packers

Eagles at 49ers - McNabb will get McSnuffed by the 49ers defense. The 49ers will score just enough with a nice, balanced attack.
Winner: 49ers

Conference Championships:

Broncos at Steelers - This will be the first of two classic cold weather games. Steelers Defense wins it for them by scoring on two Broncos turnovers, one a Clinton Portis fumble.
Winner: Steelers

Packers at 49ers - If the Packers can somehow get homefield throughout the playoffs, then it goes the other way. But I’m not that confident in them. The 49ers to win at home on a warm Northern California January evening.
Winner: 49ers

**
Superbowl XXXVII(?)**

Steelers and 49ers - I can never remember who is the home team in these. Not that it matters that much. This may be one of those games that should by all rights be close but turns into a blow out. If so, the Niners win. But the NFL is finally due for two close, exciting Super Bowls in a row (after all of the feeble ones in years past). Still, San Francisco in a squeaker.

Winner: 49ers

4

Ha, shows what you know. I have it on a good authority that the Eagles are going all the way :wink:

5

It’s the last year for the Vet, the Eagles will make it a memorable year.

6

Well, at least I didn’t pick my local team, the Bengals, to win it all. Of course that would be madness. Can’t I get any love for picking them to win the one of the toughest divisions in football?

7

I liked your playoff picks, right up until you picked the Forty Whiners to beat the Pack.

Let’s just change that one so that the Packers beat the Whiners, then beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl, mmmkay?

8

Don’t worry, nobody, least of all me, expects these to be right. Just trying to foment discussion and give you all someone to point and laugh at come January.

9

We have to wait until January?

10

Well, no, I usually will give you the week by week option. But this would be the big belly flop.

11

Moi? :cool: :o
Good stuff on the picks, they make at least as much sense as many of the “pro” forecasts this year, and more sense than a lot of them.

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Moi? :cool: :o
Good stuff on the picks, they make at least as much sense as many of the “pro” forecasts this year, and more sense than a lot of them.
EXCEPT one thing here:

Now I ain’t no expurt or nuthin, but I betcha that they will neither win nor lose on their bye week :stuck_out_tongue:

13

First, thanks. Second, yep, noticed that almost immediately. You’ll noticed it’s corrected in the “Playoffs” section. And I didn’t say anything because I wanted to see how long it would take someone to find it. T’weren’t long.

14

Just nudgin’ another predictions thread (mine own) back onto the front page. I’d promised to do this so y’all could point and laugh.