So how does he have an under water approval rating then?
Anywho…
Obviously, you’re new to the Straight Dope.
Hi. Welcome to the board.
It’s only silly if you totally ignore the fact that they didn’t just poll “who would you vote for”.
(Damn… Who was it that told me the public would just love Obamacare come November? I can’t remember.)
Wait a minute. You go to a site devoted almost entirely to POLITICS, click on an article POLITICAL in nature on that POLITICAL site, and then feign some kind of moral superiority because “you’re not like that” (my words)? Are you for real? What the hell do you expect to find on a political site? Football? Fine dining?
You’re going to mock someone for expressing views about POLITICS on a site devoted to POLITICS? I mean… Really??? That’s the lamest damn excuse you could ever come up with.
No, seriously. It is.
Where did I mention anything about conservatives or liberals in this thread prior to this post?
Did you know that the hypothetical rematch wasn’t the real highlight?
How ironic.
I’d like to answer a question with a question; how do you think Obama’s plummeting numbers among key demographics and the rising dissatisfaction with Obamacare will play out over the future? Because, you know, those things were totally included in the article linked to.
Since Obama’s falling (not plummeting yet) numbers are more than counterbalanced by the plummeted (past tense) numbers of the Republicans, there’s probably not much effect. By any reasonable account, the problems with Obamacare will mostly be in the past by the time of next year’s elections. It may or may not be the wonderful thing promised but people will have health insurance who never had it before. Those who are against it will remain against it, but it will no longer be a major issue among the undecided.
Other now unforeseen issues may work against Obama over the next twelve months, but presidential problems don’t filter down that much to Congressional races. Contrarily, we can foresee several future budget showdowns that will give the Republicans in Congress a chance to lower their current numbers. And very probably Harry Reid will invoke the nuclear option against the fillibuster to get numbers of judges through and pass other bills which will give the impression that the Democrats are getting things done, which most Americans like, and the Republicans are being obstructionist, which a majority hates. So Obamacare will not play a major role in the 2014 elections.
In a vacuum, the failures of Obamacare would be severe. But Obama cannot be part of the next presidential election. Every Democrat will run as a new face. And the Republicans will be tarred by their extreme elements just as they were in 2012. If you’re doing any real political analysis at all, rather than playing the pointing finger game, you’d see that nothing has changed in any major fashion.
And if you were doing real political analysis, you’d take any one poll and toss it out the window as soon as you were asked to comment on it. This idiotic poll is even more meaningless than most polls people comment on. I have one position on polls. Never - never, ever - pay attention to any individual poll. A collection of independent polls on a subject gives a snapshot that you can pay attention to and a long series of polls can provide a trend that is meaningful. Nothing else counts. I assume I’ll be saying that many times before the 2016 election, but I’ll be saying it about anyone on any side who tries to make some individual poll meaningful.
Not sure about every Democrat running as a new face - particularly Hilary, who’s part of Obama’s Cabinet.
McCain definitely got tarred with the Bush brush in 2008 and he wasn’t even particularly friendly with the administration (but stupidly didn’t try to distance himself from it come election time.)
Ehh…I voted for the man twice and for me, the answer is yes on two counts:
The launch of the website was botched. Yes, there are sound reasons WHY is was difficult, but those reasons were known ahead of time. The messaging on this thing was horrible.
The whole “if you like your plan, you can keep it”. I get he was going for an easy soundbite and trying to win an election, but you can follow that with the caveat “if it meets the new requirements, if it doesn’t, you really need to look at what you’re paying for, because you ain’t getting much for your money”.* But he was so…adamant that it’s making it easy to spin him as lying about it. This is primarily a self-inflicted wound.
Now, does that mean I would now vote for Romney or McCain? Oh hell no. Does it mean I’ll support my dumbass fucknut R-Congressman? Again, not just no, but hell no. But it does reflect badly on the President and his approval ratings should decline.
With all that said, it’s still a stupid story.
*Frankly, they should have looked at that and included a partial tax option - “Sure you can keep your crappy plan. Just pay half the tax to cover your costs when your crappy plan bails out and you’re good!”
Heck, Al Gore ran as a new face in 2000. Every Democrat will. Every.
This is exactly what I mean when I say nothing’s changed. Yes, the rollout was horribly botched. Everybody agrees. But who among would-be Democrat voters would change to vote for a Republican because of it? That is the only question that matters. And the answer is that the number has to be incredibly small. What will matter in 2016 will be personality and issues that the actual campaign raises. It will not be a referendum on Obama. If that’s what Republicans are hoping for then the election is over. Fortunately for them there is no reason to assume that actual politicians are thinking in these silly terms. They know better. Or should.
Thanks! Why, you must be a black conservative! I do declare, this place is simply too much!
Was it me? I really can’t remember if I did, but if it was, and you actually *do *remember me telling you, and you’re just being sarcastic and coy, then that’s a bit creepy.
No, I think we’re mocking them for having little-to-no grasp of reality. If you think those people using phrases like “Ovomit” have anything resembling a point or a shred of intelligence, I think I see the problem.
Oh, ok. But wait, here’s the thing-- some people can actually go to a political site, and *not *have a knee-jerk reaction to the stories they read there based upon the (R)s and (D)s mentioned in the story. I’m sure for someone who announces their ideology in their username, this is a hard one to wrap their head around. Now take me, for instance: I can read a story about Obama’s declining numbers, and not be afraid to post it to a thread here…even though I voted for Obama twice! See? I’m not actually rejoicing in his declining numbers, I’m mocking the story for being sensationalistic and irrelevant. And then I’m mocking the people who leave comments on stories like this and use phrases like “Obummer” and “Dumbocrats.”
This was more of a commentary on political journalism and mass media than the politicians themselves. I think some people here got that. Sorry you didn’t. But I suppose anytime the Romney or McCain campaigns get mentioned around here, you probably put your fightin’ pants on. Understandable, but really it wasn’t my intent to rejoice or fight or whatever else you are projecting on me.
Your username is your reference.
Then why was it the headline and the lede?
What specifically is ironic about it? And be specific. Here, I’ll give you the thing I said that you think is “ironic:” And does it change the fact that there are some really nutty conservatives out there who take things waaaaaayy too seriously and deserve to be called out for their nuttiness in stories like this? No.
Well, this thread was about mocking the poll that showed Mitt Romney besting Barack Obama in November 2013. The “Better Late than Never” poll. If you want your question answered, I’m sure there are other threads out there where everyone’s already ball deep in the prognosticating.
Although rather irrelevant, I’ll offer a serious rebuttal to the case that Romney would beat Obama today:
[ul][li] Most news is “bad” news! If Romney had been in recent news instead of Obama, the reversal would likely be reversed. [/li][li] Even though Obama’s winning margin in the 2012 popular vote was less than 5%, it would take slightly more than a 5% swing to switch the election result. (Go here and click “%” at far right.) Virginia, Ohio and Florida were the only Obama-voting states won by narrow margins and he didn’t need them to win the Electoral vote.[/li][/ul]
Having said that, … So What? I’ve never been a fan of reasoning like:
“52% of Americans voted for XXXX therefore he is the Baby Jesus who will redeem our sins and lead us back to the Days of Sanity.”
“Only 48% of Americans support XXXX thus he must be the eevil anti-Christ who will plunge our once-great nation into an abyss of depression and despair.”
The absurdity of focusing on 52 versus 48 in poll numbers becomes apparent when you recall that 35% of Americans can only remember the last soundbite they heard on CNN or Fox, and another 18% reflexively vote for whoever’s not “grabbing their guns” or “killing babies.”
Having said all this, while I’m happy to see bookies now giving Demos slightly more than 50% chance of the 2016 Presidency, I’m afraid sentient Americans are far too optimistic about the political future.
The multitude of positives from the ACA will overtake the rollout issues within the next six months in the publics mind.
The big perception to come will be the substantial reduction in the inflationary rate of health care costs in America that coincides with the enactment of the ACA. The CBO is cutting the projections of Federal spending for Medicare by 10%. It will take several months for that to be noticed or reported by the media with the attention that it deserves.
getting worse care from some overcrowded hospital or overcrowded doctors office.yeah,some real great positives to look forward to with the ACA(not)
but hey,look on the bright side.the same people sending the irs after the tea party and leaking social security numbers on the internet by accident will be in charge of your healthcare.what could possibly go wrong
i mean,they cant even get a multi million dollar webpage to work right
[shrug] What they’ve got in Canada has its faults, but is at any rate way better than what we’ve got here – even better than what we will have under the ACA. It hurts to say they told you so.
Of course the reason there will be more crowded doctors offices is that more people will actually be able to go to the doctor. This would be like people complaining that the civil rights movement was a bad idea because it will mean it’s harder to get a seat at the front of the bus*.
Disclaimer: This is just an analogy and I am not in any way shape or form accusing Jay of racism.
This is why you guys are doomed. You don’t know how to play the long game.
First, web problems will go away soon. States not using the federal site are doing just fine, thanks. It is early yet also - most people do stuff at the last minute (as curves for conference registration amply demonstrates.) In any case - OMG, a new piece of major software with bugs!!! That’s never happened before in the history of the world.
But here is the scoop. No one is going to be voting for Obama again, so his popularity doesn’t mean much. The real danger is that Republicans will get their heads out of their asses and move to where most of the people are. Convincing them to focus on repealing Obamacare for the 85th time is keeping them away from doing that. Pass a decent immigration bill and you might get some Latino voters. So, keep on being extreme, and I’m looking forward to the bloody fights between the business backed primary candidates and the Tea Party backed candidates. And a rerun of the Clown show in 2016.
Yahoo Mail was a total mess last week - so let’s repeal email!
Which message board doesn’t “go about our day attacking the other side blindly and defending “our team” with the rah-rah-rah enthusiasm of a drunken tailgater.”?
Point taken, there’s plenty of that here. BUT there’s also a lot of reasoned, fact-based political commentary on the Dope, some of which even involves a poster recognizing some shortcoming on the “team” they tend to support.
I can’t speak about other boards – only got time for this one – but I’m pretty sure the Dope has more of this reasoned, pom-pom-free discussion than most similar fora. It’s here – if you look around enough, you’ll find it.
[/li][li] Even though Obama’s winning margin in the 2012 popular vote was less than 5%, it would take slightly more than a 5% swing to switch the election result. (