I don’t know what the founding documents or “constitution” of NATO says (outside of knowing that admission decisions must be unanimous) I was thinking something similar except that it would entail NATO forming a “special” or “sub-” membership or something in which Sweden and Finland got article 5 benefits from everyone but Turkey, and Sweden and Finland would not be obliged to support Turkey.
My god I hope so.
never mind
Or just have individual mutual defense pacts with the UK, Canada, USA, France, Germany, Poland, etc. etc. with joint exercises continuously going.
AKA, Turkey gets something they want. I get really fucking tired of countries negotiating for individual gain by essentially holding hostages.
Yes, this is more or less what I was alluding to upthread, and I don’t know how doable it is but ISTM that something like that might be necessary:
“I don’t know what the founding documents or “constitution” of NATO says (outside of knowing that admission decisions must be unanimous) I was thinking something similar except that it would entail NATO forming a “special” or “sub-” membership or something in which Sweden and Finland got article 5 benefits from everyone but Turkey, and Sweden and Finland would not be obliged to support Turkey.”
At this point I think it clear that Russia would like to just secure, to some extent, the Donbas and much of the Black Sea coast. They will then declare it annexed into Russia itself, and state that Ukrainian attacks on it will constitute an attack on Russia and will be responded to with nuclear force.
I don’t think that is going to stand very well. They can declare it, but it will have no legal status.
Looks like it’s actually already underway, at least in part:
This.
I’m thinking that they are trying to gain more territory here, before they make the annexation formal.
Like they care.
They don’t care but the World does. At least I hope it does.
Finland and Sweden formally submit NATO membership applications
This may actually take a few months to happen though. Countries like the US can be slow to get this through and Turkey may put up a few roadblocks to be negotiated.
And now, from the Russian perspective, the shit has well and truly hit the fan.
Better do it before 2024, or the U.S. might be pushing to admit Russia to NATO instead.
I think I read August was fairly likely unless they expedite it by some small miracle. But I doubt we’re talking even 2023.
This will take time and horse trading. I think it probably a good thing, but mainly through the principle of deterrence.
Turkey seems to be Ukraine’s best source of drones, I’ve wondered once or twice before if they might stop selling them, they could stop doing so now to put a squeeze on everyone.
If they did that, the US could just give 100 Reapers to Ukraine.
I’d be rather more worried about Turkey re-opening the Straits to international warship traffic. Ukraine has done a good job whittling down the Russian Black Sea fleet; it’d be unfortuane if Russia could make good their losses and even increase their naval presence there.