Ratification has begun. Canada narrowly beat out Denmark to be the first to ratify Sweden and Finland’s membership in NATO:
I see the Canada-Denmark War has moved to different fields now that Hansen Island is partitioned.
The Danes owe Justin a bottle of schnapps as a first-place prize.
Oops, my mistake. It’s Hans Island, not Hansen Island. However, that mistake is not without benefit. I checked the Wikipage for Hansen Island and found an article about an island in Antarctica. But found that somone had added a large section about the Hans Island dispute there. So I’ll clean that up.
But I have to say that the Wikipage for Hans Island is uncommonly long for an uninhabited frost-bitten rock in the middle of nowhere. There are moderately large cities with shorter pages.
The right decision, but is it cool to be the first? Do you wave your hands wildly, tell the teacher you know the answer, get all excited?
Yes.
In fact, I’m doing all that right now.
< waves hands wildly >
I know! I know!
Ooh! Ooh! Mr. Kotter!
Presumably Putin is aware that the only scenarios in which that happens involve nuclear Armageddon.
Western nations should consider a name change and inaugurate a new name with a pact signed in Warsaw.
That may not happen soon, at least not in the case of Sweden:Explainer: Why is Turkey blocking Sweden and Finland NATO membership? | Reuters
Turkey occupies a very important strategic position on NATO’s southern flank. It controls of the entrance to the Black Sea. Finland and Sweden are an important addition to the Northern flank, securing the Baltic and the northern sea routes to Russia. Better to keep all three in NATO.
But each have their internal politics to deal with, not least Erdogan in Turkey. He want’s US F16s, he has also chosen Russian air defence systems. It also wants to sell its drones.
Turkey also has regional concerns, not least the threat from the Kurdish separatists. Turkey lives in a difficult, war torn neighbourhood along its southern border.
There are elections coming up and an economy that is in serious trouble.
It is in a complicated situation ands its dealings with Russia are ambiguous.
NATO is a big alliance and maintaining unity is a challenge. The big change has been in the Northern countries that pursued a policy of armed neutrality with respect to Russia and relied on bonds of mutual self interest concerning trade and investment.
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine changed all that.
I am guessing that the Swedish and Finnish military could establish closer links with NATO, without formerly becoming a member. Or Finland could join alone, since Turkey has less of an issue that with Sweden.
A lot of this is political posturing. Sweden and Finland seem to have made a strategic long term decision with respect to Russia and will work towards it.
Hungary seems to be the odd one out in NATO. Doggedly holding out in its support for Russia. Dependent on Russian Natural Gas and Russian Nuclear power. Orban is Putin’s best friend in the EU and NATO. They have similar brands of nationalist self interest.
I guess this gives Putin some comfort that he can split NATO and the EU by exploiting these weak links. That perception is not necessarily a bad thing because it leaves room for diplomacy rather than escalating military confrontation.
A western oriented Ukraine with a strong army on Russia’s southern flank seems a very worthwhile investment for NATO and the EU could provide the economic integration and the rebuilding of Ukraine economy.
There is a geopolitical poker game going on behind this conflict, and positioning for when it is finally settled.
I really don’t see how Russia can win. But it is not going to go away. At some point it needs to be brought back into the international community. But that would require some big political changes.
The countries that think they can protect themselves by getting on Putin’s good side should learn some history.
Poland supported Germany when it invaded Czechoslovakia. Germany later invaded Poland.
Russia supported Germany when it invaded Poland. Germany later invaded Russia.
Italy supported Germany when it invaded Russia. Germany later invaded Italy.
Any friendship with an expansionist country is just temporary until they finish conquering their current target and begin looking for the next one.
Nitpick: He wants F-35s. They’ve had F-16s since 1987 or so.
To be fair, Italy surrendered to the Allies and declared war on Germany.
Nitpick squared - he wants both. The F-16’s he has (many license built in Turkey) are older models which are qualitatively different from the latest version and he wants both newer models and upgrade kits for some of his existing planes.
He also wants back in the F-35 program which Turkey paid money into before being kicked out in 2019 for buying Russian S-400 SAM systems. Especially since Greece is still in the F-35 program.
#1 is what he probably will get, #2 is what he will likely play hardball for.
F35s? He is nothing if not ambitious. They come with a considerable price tag for a country in the economic doldrums. It would also raise the hackles of that other NATO power, the Greeks, who are always nervous of Turkey as a regional power. They have ‘history’.
Trading in weapon systems are important pieces of the poker game. They buy a lot of influence. But a lot of it tests on perception without much evidence…until now. The conflict in Ukraine is a proving ground for what systems work and what is an expensive liability.
Turkey itself is a military supplier of drones that have proven their worth in the hands of the Ukraine armed forces in the earlier stages of this conflict. Turkey plays off both sides in this conflict.
It will lead to many reviews of the defense policies of militaries around the world. Countries with arms industries selling relevant systems will find a lot of new business as shopping lists are revised. Though there does not seem to have been much of an air war, perhaps because they both have similar air defence systems.
Heh, I didn’t know that we were denying them upgrades to their existing fleet. I assumed they had recent-ish export versions by now. Thanks.
Oh yeah, they were pretty much part of the program from the beginning. The S-400 purchase still kind of bewilders me. As you say, they have some domestic aerospace, and it seems like it’d be easier to make a decent AA missile system domestically than a stealth jet.
There are a lot of reasons the S-300 buy rings false to me.
Sometimes I wonder if it wasn’t just kissing another guy to make your steady boyfriend jealous.