Will Finland join NATO?

Finland has long taken a neutral position, particularly during the Cold War.

Things might be changing as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:

I wonder if Putin even considered his actions would drive more neighbors to join NATO? He seems to have been impervious to logical thought of late.

I think Finland will probably will ask to join and be welcomed.

Checked some facts before continuing to post.

So they are EU already and have been part of the NATO Response Force and NATO Partnership for Peace.

While their standing army is small {34,700}, all males do get training in either armed service or a civilian non-armed service. So they could mobilized a decent defensive army fairly quick.

Didn’t Putin already make veiled threats about Finland joining NATO?

Yes. But he’s also sent tanks and rockets into Ukraine. I think that tends to change the balance of the conversation.

So has Russia.

and Ukraine

Finland maintained neutrality throughout the entirety of the Cold War, but the invasion of Ukraine represents the first time since WW2 that a European nation state has invaded another. So it’s understandable why the conversation has begun. I suspect what the Finns ultimately decide to do will depend at least in part on how the current conflict gets resolved. Strategically, Russia’s position is weaker today than it was a month ago. It may be that if Russia loses a good deal more hardware, the level of threat they pose to their neighbors the next decade or so will be rather diminished and the perceived need to join NATO less.

Maybe a more likely result at this point is that there will be regime change in Russia which could lead to an overall reset of the perceived threat level depending on who takes power.

I would not fancy being in any army that attacked Finland on home turf.

And on current performance I would definitely not want to be in the Russian army and try to attack Finland.

This is dripping awesomeness:

They are, after all, the people who produced probably the top sniper of all time.

Russia also made promises it wouldn’t invade Ukraine.

Finland and other countries are undoubtedly thinking there’s no point in trying to secure their country by making an agreement with Putin.

And in that, they are wise.

In WWII the Soviet Union lost a tremendous amount of military hardware to the Nazi invasion but managed to replenish it fairly quickly (with help from the Allies). If Russia decides to markedly ramp up military spending again, it will have all the toys it needs to terrorize its neighbors.

The Finns have ample experience with what happens when a small but dedicated army goes up against overwhelming Russian might. Having NATO backing would be a major deterrent to aggression.

Incidentally, Russia could make the same argument vis-a-vis Finland that it has with Ukraine - that Finland was a “historic” part of the Russian Empire and should be again.

In WWII, the Soviets got a truly staggering amount of material from the allies…including most of their trucks, jeeps, and other logistics transport. They also got literal boatloads of food, steel, rubber, clothing, and everything else…including money. They were able to build all of that stuff in no small part because they were receiving so much.

I don’t see a similar situation today. Where is Russia going to get all the stuff they need to build more toys? They were having trouble keeping up before their invasion and the new round of sanctions. I doubt China is going to (openly) be selling them all the stuff they need to build a modern weapons system. And while India has also penned a new agreement with Russia to buy their oil (at a steep discount), I don’t see them selling them anything on the sanction list…much of which Russia would need to build out those toys. Hell, I’m not sure Russia will have the materials to upgrade more of their old crap with the current sanctions regime…where are they going to get the money from??

I’m sure they will do just that. They have already threatened Finland for even considering this.

Agreed, Allied aid was massive and dramatically aided the Soviet war effort. However, the Soviets were able to rev up their own production markedly, moving entire factories east to get out of range of the Germans. Their tank production had approximately tripled by 1944 compared to 1941; aircraft production increased by about two and a half times.

The effort required there and in other industrial sectors depended on war mobilization of the citizenry to an extent likely impossible today. Still, I doubt Russian leadership’s current imperialist dreams will be foiled by a prolonged shortage of military hardware.

But one of the differences from WWII is that production of war materials is much different now. Other posters in other threads have commented that putting together modern war equipment takes a lot longer than it did in WWII, when it was relatively easy to re-tool industries from peace production to war production. It’s much more specialised and takes longer to produce the material.

There’s also the issue of the inter-connectedness of the world markets, especially for some vital components like semi-conductor chips. For instance, if Russia is cut off from sophisticated chips, that cuts down on their ability to make modern war equipment.

Here’s an interesting article about chips and Russia. It suggests that they could still get chips from China, but that due to existing US sanctions on Chine/Huawei, those chips aren’t the same top-level quality as the ones available to the West.

And as interesting example of the inter-connectedness of the world supply chains, the article notes that the war in Ukraine will likely affect chip-manufacturing generally:

  1. Neon is an essential component used in making chips;

  2. There is a relatively small world-wide supply of neon;

  3. One of the major sources of neon is Russia, where it is a by-product of their steel manufacturing process;

  4. Russian neon is then refined in Ukraine, to reach the standards necessary for chip-making;

  5. Last crisis in Ukraine triggered a seven-fold increase in neon prices worldwide.

I don’t think comparisons to the industrial processes of WWII, ie technology 80 years ago, really provides much guidance.

Sorry for the hijack but how is neon ‘consumed’ by the lithography process?

All I know is what’s in the linked article:

How can you tell a Russian nuclear submarine crew?

They glow in the dark.