No kidding.
“We warn you, if you join NATO we will… Well, we’ll invade you before you join NATO, so there.”
Given the state of the Russian army that we’ve seen in the past, I think I would be more confident if Finland announced they were going to invade Russia.
There is that stretch of land before Leningrad that the Soviets took from Finland in the Winter War …
Neon is produced from distillation of air. It’s less abundant than argon, so undoubtedly a bit more expensive, but the raw materials can be found literally anywhere literally for free. If the current source dries up, there are any number of other facilities that could pick up the slack.
I think Finland and Sweden are seeing a window of opportunity here. They might normally have to take any Russian threats seriously and back down. But after the problems Russia has had in Ukraine, it looks like they’re going to have to spend the next year or two rebuilding their military. So Russia can threaten to attack Finland and Sweden if they talk about joining NATO. But they can defy Russia and join, secure in the knowledge that by the time Russia is able to carry out its threat, they will be fully integrated into NATO and therefore effectively shielded from a Russian attack.
Makes good sense to me, and they’d be most welcome in NATO.
This much is clear: if Finland ever wanted to join NATO, there’s never going to be a more opportune time than now.
I also think that, even if they don’t join NATO, if Russia tried a similar build-up on their borders the US and probably all of NATO would be shipping in as many weapons and systems as possible. I doubt either will be caught flat-footed again, and you won’t have Germany dragging its collective feet on arms going to the threatened nation anymore.
Absolutely. When your neighbor Russia growls at you, assume they’re going to invade someday and prepare accordingly.
I get the feeling that this would be done differently … NATO might extend its guarantee "starting with the begin of the integration process, not with the end of it.
so basically a “we got you article-5-covered while we jointly hatch out the pesky details of the membership.”
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As I mentioned in another thread, there are currently probably 10+ countries looking into their agenda of things to do with the very same idea …(e.g. getting out of “russia” before being bogged down for AT LEAST 20 years to a 1970ies lifestyle … Chechenia, Georgia, a couple of the xyz-stans, you name it)
BEST MOMENT EVER!!! … and the more countries push their needs, the larger the headache for the small genius and the less he can do to every single one of them.
I’ve heard various analysts say recently that what Ukraine needs now is a strategic distraction. Finland joining NATO, or actions by separatists in Chechnya, Georgia or any of the various ‘istans’ would all fill the distraction bill nicely.
I think that is where Vlad most shot himself in the foot … russia might growl … but nowadays it might just get bitch-slapped with yesterday’s paper.
Technically, NATO protection begins as soon as the signatures are on the treaty. But realistically, it would take a little time to get the preparations in place.
I feel that Finland and Sweden would like to keep the period between when they have a NATO guarantee on paper and when NATO is in position to enforce that guarantee as short as possible - and to have it finished before Russia is able to take advantage of it.