While Squink’s links are a start, they don’t explain what really is fire weather.
From Google:
Definitions of fire weather on the Web:
- The state of the weather with respect to its effect upon the kindling and spreading of forest fires. Glossary of Meteorological Terms (F) - NovaLynx Corporation
- weather conditions that influence fire ignition, behavior or suppression. http://www.pnl.gov/atmos_sciences/Cdw/Glossary.html
- Weather variables, especially wind, temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation, that influence fire starts, fire behavior, or fire suppression. http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary/browse
- Collectively, those weather parameters that influence fire occurrence and subsequent fire behaviour (eg, dry-bulb temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, precipitation, atmospheric stability, winds aloft). http://www.bmg.go.id:8080/fdrs/glossary_e.html
In other words, …
On a wildland fire there is often a weather forecaster (many times a NOAA weather forecaster), who works with the fire behavior specialist (FBS) to develop the weather forecast and the fire weather forecast.
At the daily morning briefing, the weather forecaster details the national, regional and local outlooks, and how all will impact upon the fire during that shift. In turn the FBS details the fire weather for that shift using the weather forecaster’s predictions and couples them with fuels indexes, moisture/drought conditions, live fuels moistures, dead fuels moistures, yadda, yadda. They come up with a very accurate fire behavior prediction for that fire for the shift. If it’s a big fire and there is a night shift, the afternoon briefing covers the same thing (but updated) for the night crews. Also, fire crew members now carry fire danger pocket cards for the local area during a shift. Morning briefings, regular radio contact (updates) all help, but the fire fighter on the ground in a particular location with a pocket card, training and experience is also part of the fire weather program.
Keep in mind that a wildland fire is affected by weather as well as effects the weather. During the height of fire season, that butterfly flapping its wings 500 miles away really does affect fire behavior. Just look at all the fire weather stations across the country. I’ve observed an FBS use RAWS data from 500 miles away to predict fire behavior for that day on our fire. A good FBS is uncanny in predictions and results. The FBS on our national incident team is one of the best in the country. Many of his fire behavior predictions are as accurate in location and time within 15 minutes on a prediction made up to ten hours old.
Huh?
Imagine your favorite TV weather forecaster standing in front of your home at 6:00 am on a summer’s day. The forecaster predicts the weather for the next 12 hours for your home and the surrounding ten blocks. The forecaster also takes into account your asphalt shingle roof, your lush green lawn, those two big ass trees out back, the street asphalt and concrete sidewalk, along with your neighbor’s roofs, lawns, trees, streets and sidewalks, the big hill down the block, building heights, yadda, yadda, and predicts your home will remain in full sun all day long but your friend who lives a block away will experience a light shower at about 3:00 pm that afternoon. The prediction later proves accurate.
FWIW, this fire season is off to an extremely early and robust start. The wildland fire stats for this year are way above average. Of course, you might think the Texas/Oklahoma grass fires are just an anomally, but the devil is in the details. The national outlook map for March (PDF warning) might not scare you, but the February-June outlook should make you crap in your pants. If those two don’t rile you, the US Drought Monitor should induce chest pains. Yes, Mother Nature has been known to throw curve balls and this year’s fire season could be normal, with just a few barn burners. However, all the indicators are predicting a bad fire year.
We’ll only know when it happens. We have to be ready, whether it happens or not.