These are not mutually exclusive options.
Well, given that you are wrong (FiveThirtyEight projections never had anything near a 95% projection for Clinton, and certainly not past November 2016 when it gave Trump a over 30% probabilty) I’m sure you’ll retract the claim that the “model is dogshit”.
Actual, Silver comes off as an overly qualifying, impossbile-to-pin-down ‘twat’ who hedges his assessments based upon conditional validity of the data. I’ve literally never heard him claim that a result was essential certain because of projections, because like a good statistician he always references the margins even to an absurd degree. But maybe you’ll provide a clip or quote where he makes some unlikely absolute projection about the future that I’ve never, ever heard him make. Yes?
Stranger